Round Two: More Nasty & Concentrated. David Ignatius Talks to Armstrong & Getty

here spokesman John Kirby on where this is headed. Because they're gonna be able to concentrate their efforts now in a smaller geographical area, an area that they have been fighting over now for eight years, we would expect that the violence is only going to get worse. The fighting is going to get more intense as they, as the Russians, now try to redouble their efforts in a very much smaller area of Ukraine. So so we're very concerned about

this development. We're watching it. So Jake Tapern CNN with the mobile crematoriums trying to cover up the atrocities the Russian soldiers are committing and then John Kirby, spokesman at the Pentagon, they're saying things are going to get worse. It's hard to imagine how they could. Um, So let's bring in David Ignatius to start their columnist the Washington Post covering foreign affairs. David, Welcome to the Armstrong and Getty Show. Appreciate you joining us today. Thanks thanks for

having me watching these pictures and videos. Just absolutely amazing. Can things get worse? Well, at first, as you say, they're there, as a Secretary Lincoln put it there, they're punching that got It's really uh hard horrified to see what the Russian invaders have done. They were pushed out of the north where they left this trail of gruesomely

kill bodies that we've been seeing. And they're now regrouping to attack from the east and the south in the Black Sea, the c of as of and it's just John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said, they'll concentrate their firepower and if anything, it will be even a nasty or more concentrated um as they as they focus on that sector of Ukraine. UM. I've been trying to think and to write a column today for the Washington Post about how to think about the Round two that's about to begin.

The Round one was was bloody, horrifying, but it had real success by the Ukrainian alterat, I mean, credible courage and pushing the Russians back. What's Around two going to be like and what kinds of assistance should the United States and its allies be thinking about offering Ukrainians for this sect and round. I think it needs to be a different mix of weapons, more armor. With the Ukrainians

have shown that their military is tough. They can use the armor that's sent in old Soviet tanks and armored personal carriers from Eastern European countries. They could use long range missiles to attack the Soviets in their rear basing areas Soviets, excuse me, Russians, uh so um. I hope that in this period before Round two begins, people are thinking carefully about how to help the Ukrainians do as well as they can against the onspot that's about to begin. Yeah,

So we were just talking a little bit ago. How um it sounded like a big number when I heard out the White House earlier this week that we had given two billion dollars worth of military aid before they started in a billion cents for a total of three billion. But then I was just reading earlier today that at the height of the Iraq War we were pumping in nine billion dollars of you know, weaponry a month at the time when we thought, you know, Iraq was important

enough for that level of money. So I don't I don't know where we go money wise in Ukraine and all that sort of stuff. But looking at your column today, has Putin's brutality finally hit a wall in Ukraine. Um, And a lot of talk about the investigating the crimes. These are war crimes obviously, Is there is there any hope of anybody being held to account for any of this stuff? Well, the answer is yes, there's some hope,

but it's going to take years. Um. We know from war crimes investigations that followed the Balkan Wars where there were trustees committed Remember Benita is one famous name of a town. Whether we're just terrible maskers that people can be identified, commanders who authorized killings and then tracked down and that happened and people were brought It's proud in the Hague for war crimes. Um in that case, you had the clear winners who were able to enforce the laws.

Whether we'll have that situation here remains to be seen. But I counted my column a number of investigations that are already other way. The International Criminal Court, not recognized by the United States but recognized by most countries, has already begun an investigation. France has three investigations underway about war crimes against its own citizens. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General

has fifty thousand investigators gathering evidence right now. And then you have all of the social media and journalistic record that's been compiled. That's what we've been seeing obviously in and it's amazing that when the Russians tried to deny that they'd ever killed all those people whose bodies we've seen in the terrible videos and no, no, no, it didn't happen. He's see you can see the corpses are moving.

People have gone back through the video imagery and show him that the Russian claims that the video images were false are incorrect, that they've gone literally pixel by pixels the show this, the Russian claims are false, these images are real. And then they shout overhead Riconstance film that was shot commercially back in mid March, that that show the bodies already in the streets in But just so

yes is the answer. I do have some hope that the evidence and the venue for prosecution will be there to bring people to account. Um, getting back to what you said a little bit ago, really got my attention. This whole round two thing. I wasn't aware that, you know, around had ended and a new round is starting in. Um. General Milliy got everybody's attention the other day when he said this is going to be measured in years. That

certainly got got my attention. He said, I don't think decade, not sure decades with the plural, but certainly in years. So he expects this the last a very long time. How do you foresee this playing out from now going forward? So I think it probably will last. It will be protracted. That's the phrase that the Nation Security Adviser Jack Sullivan used, and Milly was amplifying that. Um, we have to remember that this war really has already been going on for

eight years. Good point. The war in the East began in and it's been continuous. It's involved Russian and Ukrainian regular altar units for those eight years. So in a sense, you know, we're it's a continuing war. The next phase will be the decisive battle for control of this eastern region.

And mostly I don't think the Russians will will try to create a kind of zone from the eastern region almost the dumb Boss across the south through Mario full City that they've shattered all the way down to Odessa, past Crimea, that they'll control all of the Black Sea access to Ukraine. Ukraine will will be landlocked in effect, and that that's the Russian goal. And and so it's going to be a pitched battle. I think part of what Generalinois is saying is that even if they succeed

in doing that, they face an intense resistance. I mean, people in Ukraine. When I visited Ukraine in light January, just before the war began, even Russian speaking Ukrainians hated the Russians. It's amazing how Putinous alienated the population of that country, which he imagines, you know, loves Russia's it feels part of the greater Russian nation. Do you think he actually believes that stuff? Do you think he actually believes that stuff? I do he I think he believed

it deeper. I think it's part of his self mystification that led this war. You have to ask how did Putin make such a huge mistake? And I think the only answers that he truly believed it. You read his essays and they almost you know, it's almost a religious mission for him. So he did believe it. But he's gonna he's gonna face protracted, prolonged resistance in any areas

that he conquers. So the Russians are facing war like what we faced in Vietnam, and we remember how that just dragged us and a little warlike the Russians face in Afghanistan finally drove him out after ten years, or like we face in Afghanistan drove us out of after twenty years. So it's hard to win those wars if you're an unpopular occupying force, and that's who. As we think about round two that's about to begin, it'll be back kind of war. It's gonna be nasty, it probably

will be prolonged. At some point, Putin may decide, as as we did in Afghanistan, this simply is an warmed the cost and choose an alternative path. But right now, everybody body I talked to the Pentagon says he is determined to give it in round to the hardest shot he can. I know you are doing some writing, and I heard you talking about this early on, about how how into this story and in support of the Ukrainians the Europeans have been and obviously I've seen that in

the United States. Do we have the the ability to to to not lose our attention? You know, we go from story to story to story pretty quickly. Um, are we gonna be able to stay focused on this over the timeline we're just describing, So that's the right question to ask. America, I think is famously impatient in supporting allies. In this case, it's the Ukrainians who are doing the fighting. We have a supermotivated partner. We didn't have that in

that gas stand, but we sure do a Ukraine. They're fighting with incredible bravery, tenacity, and we also have lots of other allies. Ukraine is surrounded by European countries that have really found their heart. The Germans other countries often kind of sat on their hands when it came to confrontations with Russia. Not here that they're they're stepping up there,

providing weapons, in some cases more aggressively than we are. Poland, which neighbors Ukraine, sees itself as being a prospective future target of Russia, is absolutely supporting the Ukrainians providing uh weapons, supplies, safe haven for refugees were streaming out of Ukraine. But that's that's true of many European countries. So I think the staying power on the side of the West is significant.

And that's another thing that Putin has to fit. The factor in he doesn't have who's allies Belarus and and China sort of. The China China support has been lukewarm at best, so Prudent faces a non attractive campaign as he as he begins around two. But again he'll go at it. I think initially what everything is David David Ignacious, Columnists, Washington Post. I'm a big fan. Thanks for coming on today.

It's a pleasure. It's tough to talk about. It's good to have the chance after about you bet, I'd say it's tough to talk about, it's tough to watch, it's tough to see the pictures. It's just it's I've said this, God, how What have I said this a thousand times in the last six weeks. I can't believe this is actually occurring in my lifetime. Frequently on One More Thing podcast, Jack, this is roughly the equivalent of carrying around two hundred

and twenty four slices of bacon in your body. Well wait, wait a minute, regular, what bacon ways of measurement that we all use? The Armstrong and Getting podcast cheer it on the I heart app, wherever you listen to podcast