Please welcome Mike Lyons military analysts. Mike served with various military military organizations in both the US and Europe throughout his career, decorating with the Bronze Star, among other things. Mike, how are you, sir. It's great to be back with you. On a lighter note, first of all, our executive producer Mike Hanson informs me that he bothered you in the midst of the Super Bowl yesterday as you're attempting to enjoy that great national holiday. I apologize for that. No,
no problem, no, no problem. Always on. I'm always available for you guys. Of course, thank you. And that's what a worker he is too. He's amazing. Anyway, So I saw the latest headlines over the weekend were that a number of nations were evacuating embassy personnel, civilians, that sort of thing. I don't know on what basis they make those decisions, but the number, the sheer number of countries
doing that was pretty ominous. It is, and we're all trying to look for the historical analogy at this point. You know, is it nineteen fourteen before first, you know, the First World War? Is it appeasement to take place in ninety eight with Munich and the British is it Independence Day where you know, the spaceships are all kind of lining up and everyone's trying to get out of the cities before something happens. And so I think that
they're gonna give diplomacy one more chance. You saw that the Ukraine minister is going to look to talk to Russia with this now potential promise of not joining NATO.
But that's really not anything that's tangible whatsoever, because the bottom line is to get Ukraine and NATO, it would take agreement of all other NATO countries right now, and in Turkey wouldn't agree with it, neither with Germany, and neither with a bunch of other nations, so that that really is a fatal complete And that's so I don't think that Russia is gonna take that seriously. They want more.
They're gonna want maybe a new missile defense tree. There's a lot more things that Roden M. Putin wants, uh or else. He likely launches a kind of combat on the on the on the continent we haven't seen since
the Second World War. You know what I don't have a grasp on at all is whether Putin is sincerely seeking uh security concessions of the sort you just described um or whether this all is a pretext for snatching up land that he considers rightfully part of the great restored Soviet Empire, or does he have both options to him and then he's neither one nor the other necessarily. Yeah, No, I think it's more of the second. He doesn't want to take this land back. You know, he's got a
finite life shelf life himself. He sees Russian greatness, and he's trying to project Russian into the future. That's really what from his perspective, what this is about. And the only way that a country does that is by taking over resources. I think I think he's got to be faced with the decision of taking Crimea, taking already taking Crimea, taken Ukraine and possibly destroying things that he's going to
want to use in the future. But to your point, you know, he gets Ukraine, he has influence over Belarus. What's not to say he's going to want to encroach in potentially the northern countries and Latvia stillity NATO countries. Now, how's how's that going to go? So I think that that's why this appeasement argument is out there because people say, well, if we've given out of this, then he'll just look to do that in the future. But you know, he's
got to look forward in a country that's dying. Fundamentally, Russia is going in the wrong direction, and I think he recognizes that, and this is the way he thinks he can rehearse that. Well, yeah, I guess what I'm asking is, are the international diplomats trying desperately to to talk sense to Sergei Lavrov and all the Russians? Are they just Neville Neville Chamberlain going to Hitler And there was never anything that was going to appease Hitler. He
had a specific plan. Do you think Putin's still weighing options there? Would you guess he has a specific plan? Now? I think he has a plan. And that's the point about Neville Chamberlain going and to Hitler was you know, I watched historians now try to say, well, actually that wasn't that bad because it bought the UK another year or so to get ready for the war that's coming. I I kinda shake my head saying that's not what's
happening here. Ukraine's not getting any further ready. For a war. Um, I have to wonder what the military is doing right now. They're obviously on highl earth. They're they're going to be undermanned, They're going to be underwhelmed by the technology that they have compared to what the Russians have on the other side. I wonder what the USS and soldiers thinking on their side of the border. Do they know when they're coming? Are they sitting? Did they get the order and they
were told to pause? I've been in that situation before, but I do I don't think that. I think. I think food and clearly has a strategic plan. He's always been one of those kinds of thinkers over over the horizon, making sure he has something in play, and I believe
that in this case he'll play that out. Military analysts Mike Lions on the line, Mike, we don't We civilians don't really have a sense of how great Russia's superiority is over the Ukrainian forces were told that they're they're pretty well trained, A lot of a lot of them are battle hardened. The Ukrainians reasonably well eclipped equipped. Is it like two to one, five to one, ten to one, it's you know, you to compared both militaries, it's more
like seven or eight two one. It's very high. But but the issue is what they've got a math on the border and what they're up against and what Russia does have a success in the military. I think that's been understated here. Um, Russian military units have been deployed as Syria for the past ten years working that civil war, so they're going to be somewhe battle tested themselves. And the Ukraine's no, They've got within their culture, they're embedded
to fight and and and the and the like. And you've got people now and looking to try to create this model of well let's let them in and then we'll have this counterinsturency that takes place. You just Russia won't play with that. I don't think that's going to be an issue at all. Russia is going to look
to destroy the Ukraine military. There's going to be significant you know, artillery missiles, all kinds of indirect fire against their military targets, looking to destroy their military before it gets out of the motor poole. And um, it's it's going to be unfortunate if you're if you're wearing a Ukraine uniform or you're you've got a gun in your hand walking around Ukraine. You're gonna be a target for the Russian military and you're out and you're outnumbering the
emotion military outnumbers. I'm onner the ground right now, three to one, four to one. Wow. Wow. Uh So, finally, we Americans tend to fixate on one story at a time. Are there any other hotspots around the globe that you have special interest in that have really grabbed your attention. I'm always looking at the Middle East, and got my son deployed there, so I've got a little hit eyes there as well. With what's going on with the missile
with the Iranian missile deal or I'm sorry, the nuclear deal. Um. From a military perspective, though, we could need to project power and I think you know, this is going to give us an opportunity to if we do this properly, to to really think about if they do decide to go in Ukraine, what what are we gonna do? We us start protecting our assets that are in space if we're going to help the Ukraine military, which is what
we would do. Now, let's see if that they do role tanks, Um, We've got some ground surveillance, radars and things that we could possibly help them with intelligence and information. UM I do. I do think that next stiff dimension we'll take place in outer space and they'll be they'll be combat up there at some point. And the question is, you know, perhaps this was the precursor to that. If we can you know, protect those assets there, I think will be okay. You know, that's the topic we ought
to pursue on another day. Absolutely interesting and the idea that the previous administration will leave the T word out of it, but the previous administration's solidifying and starting up the space force. The fact that that was mocked and laughed at is just it's a measure of how stupid we can be. I think, no, no, no question, And that's exactly where the next battle takes place, cyber overseas, all of that, especially in space as well. We can
we're concerned about these countries that have nuclear capability. We've talked about before. You can't you know, have a new can you have able to deliver a new can be a space force in order to get it across the continents. Um. I do think that right, And we've got so much
intel collection assets up there right now. What if what if China decides to knock some of those things out right now in precursor to this invasion in Ukraine, that that can already be starting in some ways, and we've got to figure out a way how we're going to protect that. Wow. Wow, Mic Lions military analyst, Mike, thanks a million, good to talk to you. We appreciate it.
Thanks alright, absolutely wow. The idea that the next front in warfare is blowing each other's satellites out of the sky, and then I would imagine aggressively launching dozens, hundreds, thousands more satellites up in the sky so our eyes and the years uh continue to function up there, because I know that's that's an enormous part part of American military capability is a communications and uh and that's that's a
great field in itself. If you ever want to get truly wonky about the communication systems we're trying to design so that if they knock out A, we go to B, they knock out B, we go to C and and just always have a certain amount of reasonable command and control. But the idea that um that all of that is now vulnerable in a way that it hasn't been in generations. I mean, that'll get your attention.