Russian troops on the move again. Ukrainian officials tonight expressing a new concern about further big deployments and neighboring Belarus of Russian soldiers along with tanks, artillery and other hardware, just some of over one hundred and twenty five thousand troops threatening a possible full scale invasion of the country.
And the story broke in the last seventy two hours that Joe Biden had a change of heart for some reason on the whole idea of US sending troops anywhere, and we now have eight troops on heightened alert as of today, and the idea of sending them to somewhere in the region, not Ukraine, but somewhere in the region, and definitely more you know, armament stuff, you know, support.
Military analyst Mike Lyons joins US. Mike served with various military organizations for the United States of America throughout his career. Was awarded the Bronze Starfer's Actions in Combat, among other recognition. Mike, how are you, sir, hey when you guys good to be back to do? First of all, and I asked this because a lot of our listeners are emailing talking about guys, we can't go to war war with Russia. We're gonna go wagging the dog getting in a war.
Where are the troops and our armaments being sent and what's the significance of it? I say, Yeah, First of all, this is not a waged dog. This is a very serious military build up on the side of Russia, who's acting more like the Soviet Union right now from more analysis that I've been doing in the past few days here and they're they're bringing troops from Siberia way the east of Moscow. They are have a very very serious
military build up here, sending troops into Belarus. UM Navy for example, is going to go to do an exercise in the Irish Sea. And the only thing I can see from there that perspective is, you know, a technology that trans first from Europe the United States and underground cables and things. So they're doing a many things right now that are seemed to be very aggressive with regard their military. So number one, this is not a waged dog.
So it comes back to this issue of what's this level of the terns that we're going to do to keep them from a really doing something. Um, you know, we were sending eighty five twops where we put them on heightened alert, that's like double secret probation frankly, because with the amount of troops that they have there right now, Um, we wouldn't get anybody there on time. If we were
going to put them in Ukraine. We might be able to help in a NATO country that's surrounding them, But for all practical purposes right now, we've got to look at this through the eyes of Russia and say they're going to definitely do something. And that's just the question is a matter of When I saw one analyst talking about Russia having in place what it needs for a blitzkrieg like operation, just a super fast, overwhelming they've got the country before you know what happened sort of maneuver.
Is that possible? Yeah, I think it's true. And they're gonna avoid built up areas and likely go for their military and so Russia will win this by destroying the Ukraine military. Now, we could send all the ammunition and javelins and and surface air missiles we want and they get to Kiev and you know they can send on the docks in place. But but the bottom line is, um, if we if if they've destroyed any of users of
that equipment, it's not going to matter. And they know where it all is, they know how they're going to target it, they know what they're gonna do. They're gonna bypass certain areas. I think that the fact that they put so many troops down in the in the northern part, you know, in that Belarus area, shows they're going to do this pincer movement where they're likely come from the north.
They're likely looked to surround the capitol, um and and and and and not just take control of of the country, but you know, really destroy the military and just put it set it back thirty to fifty years when it comes to being a country. And if they just had to leave, then then so what they've destroyed. So Russia's perspective of Ukraine is there an enemy. Um, they've been they've been fighting for them for the past seven years. Um. They perceived them as a threat. They perceived them as
trying to align with the West. And from their perspective, they don't think the terrence has worked. And they've tried to ternce on Ukraine and from their perspective, it hasn't worked, which is why they're doing what they're doing. Let's rewind a little bit, and I realized this could be a book length answer. But what are the American interests in Ukraine? In Russia's aggressions in Ukraine? Why do we care? Well, Um, at fifty feet, it's supporting, you know, a sovereign nation,
that's democracy. So if it's more ideological than it is economic, let's say, um, from that perspective, and is you know we can cavalist well or not that's a good idea to go to war over. Probably not in today's world. Um. Number two, it also serves as potentially this lynch pin that would drive NATO apart. You've got already the Germans
not playing. They're not really participating in what's going on because they rely on about their energy comes from Russia, so they're not looking to get into any kind of conflict with Russia. UM. But other than that, it's you know, us trying to prop up um. You know, these Eastern European countries who mistakenly we allowed in NATO following thousand and four under the Bush administration. You know. So, so this could end up turning out to be a war
of former Soviet bloc countries against against Russia. What happens then? What happens if Romania decides to cross the border that they share with Ukraine and help the Ukraine military. Russia attacks them and does something into Ukraine, It launches missiles into into Rope And then what happens. Then that's a NATO country. Here we go Article five And now the US has dragged into this. This was the problem of putting these countries in. I've said this before. We can't
have membership to NATO to be everybody but Russia. Same mistake we're making that we made it started World War One. Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up, that whole NATO Article five things. So that's the danger of the United States actually getting involved. Right if if any NATO plane or ship or soldier or anybody, um somehow on purpose or inadvertently gets attacked, then then things change. Yeah, and theory. There's a lot of things going on in the med
right now. We've got a carrier group there, the Russians have got UM naval forces there, They've got them in the Atlantic in the Black Sea. Of course, anything that we just don't know what that trigger could be, and that could lead to a further escalation, and and then what does that look like. I mean, from from our perspective, it's only strategic weapons, because, like I said, we we don't have any cap ability to get troops there on time.
I just don't think troops on high alert is the is a kind of deterrence that we need to be doing. I also don't agree with US implementing sanctions right now. Anything we do right now is going to be considered preemptive. It's going to be considered an act of war on the Russian side. So I think that'll just further down the road his capability of of wanting to to do
this even more. I mean, he's got to look at right now the cost of not acting that that Talleyrand expression about, you know, you can do a lot of things that bayonets but can't sit on him. He's gonna lose a lot of face here if nothing, if nothing does happen, if he doesn't do anything. Um with his own people, I think, UM, and we've got to figure out diplomatically if there's if there's an off ramp to that or not or else. Right now, from the way I look at it, UM, the Ukraine military is about
to be destroyed. Well boy there, Well, there's been some reporting that the Ukraine military's plan is to kill as many Russian soldiers as fast as they can and have the Russian public turn against this. Of course, if it's a to day operation for Russian to roll through the whole country and take it over, there wouldn't be time to uh public opinion. There's a crazy op in the worst of insurance say that says a hundred thousand troops is not enough. And I sit there and go, how
do you know that? I mean, we look at we look at the situation in the past of what's what's happened. I just don't think that that's you know, a feasible way of deterrence and making sure that that that that uh, that's going to keep them from doing anything. Mike, have you actually let loose the dogs of war? We can hear the dogs of war in the background. Yeah, I had him, had him rocked up, but he gets that you worry about it. We just thought that was a
funny joke. That's all there was to that. Bans. Military analysts on the line always great to talk to, Mike James. So is the most likely thing that happens. Then Russia moves in. It only takes a couple of days, they destroy the Ukrainian they take over Ukraine and the world says in what are you gonna do? Is that what's gonna happen? Yeah? I think so. I think that the question is how much damage does Russia cause? Do they
feel they have to go overboard? And um, it could lead to those crippling sanctions that we say that that are going to happen again, the Germans are not going to go with them, and the Chinese will still you know, back to support them as well. Um. I just think that the question is how much will be destroyed of the Ukraine military, because that's really it would be no match they have. They don't have the same capabilities over some fifty thous and they've got all those other troops
that are there as well. They just don't have any kind of capability. And again, these anti tank missiles and the things we're sending is not gonna be enough to stop them. They're they're the Russians are going to do this by indirect fire. They're gonna fire missiles and artillery into these built up is Flattenum, level them for a few days and then a side role and I to destroy anything that's left over. So just another book length question,
you know, condensed down into a minute or two. Um, to what extent, in your opinion, is Vladimir Putin trying to recapture the not only the ground but the glory of the Soviet Empire? And to what extent is he like Russian rulers through history, you know, fairly paranoid about attacks from the west and the south, and he's just trying to establish a buffer. I think he's not acting like a Russian ruler. He's acting like a Soviet ruler.
He's not. It's and there's a difference. I mean, um, you know, Russia potentially would have been part of the international community. Look at me Boris Yeltson and look at the things that that they they've tried to do at the end there with Glasnostin and Gorbacheff, and that was more of a Russian ruler. He's much more ruthless. He's more of a Soviet union leader that wants to bring um as much damage down and fear as a tactic in order to get things going. There's no karent and
stick with Vladimir Putin. I think the question is, um, he wants America out of Europe, that's for sure, and a little secret as we are. I mean, we took three hundred thousand troops out in the nineties, but he doesn't want any more influence in those NATO countries that we have there, and I think I think that's um. The question of whether he can get there with this
or not it remains to be seen. I saw a good article from Fiona Hill that said, you know, he's got us right where he wants us, and there's there's some ways that's true. The question is again, he goes in there with this destructive force, kills a lot of people, destroys the Ukraine military, and then turns the United States and say, now, what are you gonna do about it? Yeah.
The frustrating thing to me is I watched this is there's no well, not no. There are a few strong intrinsic reasons why we are rivals with Vladimir Putin and his his kleptocracy. I mean, it's not like China exactly. He's not exactly a communist, a sort of one. But why in the world there are we these huge adversaries with Putin. Well, it's because Putin's a megalomaniac, I think, yeah, And he's got new crispins and they they he does fancy himself as being, you know, a global leer. He
wants to exert global influence, especially in the region. It's the same reason why the Chinese want us out of Asia, um, Russia wants us out of Europe, and he wants to have that sphere of influence over it. Um. You know, I do think that at the end of the day, though, if we get too bogged down in this and we keep don't keep on the ball, that China still presents the bigger problem because of their economy and because of where their military capability is. And we couldn't make a
bullet to kill all the people. So you know, there's just not you know that it's still a pretty large distraction here, and I'm not sure we're gonna be able to thread the needle on this in a way. Um that's gonna that's gonna either say faced on our side, on the Native side, doesn't. Some's put the alliance up on some level. But I do think again that it's going to be connectic and I think that that a large part of that Ukraine military is going to get
destroyed because he's got the capability to do that. Well, almost use up all our time before I ask my big stupid question, which is is there any chance Russian and China is working together that that Russia is gonna move on Ukraine and China is gonna move on Taiwan. I think the only way that happens is if it's uh after the Olympics. The Chinese have got so much focus there. He we Russia did that at the end of the Socio Olympics. Literally the last day Olympics, he
moved on Crimea. I think that he's gonna least give the Chinese that amount of time. It's gonna give two or three more weeks for the ground to freeze so the tanks don't sink and in the mud as they roll across the country. But I got I think quick incursion go in a lot of fires, a lot of death and destruction. I'm not sure they're going to occupy, but I don't think it's still gonna happen for a
couple of weeks because of the Olympics. So that's where they're gonna work together, well, getting back here charming saying about Bayonets. Something is going to happen. I hope we can stay in touch. Military analysts, my clients always enlightening Mike, thanks a million, Hey guys, good thanks for having me. Yeah. If you want to follow the story, follow him on Twitter because he he often has the very latest best stuff going on there. I think they're just gonna roll
in take over Ukraine. The world's gonna say, damn it. Can you believe that? That's s sanctions? Strong statements? Strong statements. So Putin has a mass to half a trillion dollars of reserve money according to report out today. To be able to weather sanctions half a trillion, he needs oil to be forty dollars a barrel. To be able to make a profit. It's twice that, and that's where they get most of their revenue. So financially, a lot of fakers think the sanctions just he's not scared of him
at all. Between oil and has saved up money. So he's gonna roll and he's gonna take Ukraine in the world's gonna go. God, can you believe he did that? Damn it? Because he care? What a mean guy? Anyway, have you seen have you seen the new season of squid Game? And then we go back to other, you know, whatever stuff we talk about. I think he nailed it. Yeah, there you go.