Military analyst Mike Clients, who served with various military organizations both the US and Europe throughout his career, respected voice on a number of networks publications. Mike, welcome, how are you sir? Hey, guy's great to be back with you. I saw how surprising was this, uh, the success of this counter offensive and how successful was it? No, very surprising, and it's clearly something that Ukraine had been planning for strategically.
It looks like they had some kind of faint that went on in the south and care soon where Russia can't lose. They can't I If they lose a battle down there, then they start to lose Crimea, then they lose some of the land that they had taken seven
or eight years ago. UM. But what they were able to do is take an economy of force mission, which means they put less people there in Carson from UH, faked an offensive there and brought the majority of the troops to the north in our Kiev, where they did a classic pincer movement and we're able to you know, route Russian soldiers that likely were withdrawing anyway, and they
were moving to to the east and to the south. UM. But this is a real, real, tremendous moral victory for Ukraine as they take back land that has been occupied by Russia since March Um. I think, you know again, this is a great day for them. They win a battle, but the question still remains us whether or not they can win the war or not. Yeah, A couple of different dynamics in opposition to each other have got me interested.
Number One, I understand that some of the economics s actions against Russia, limitations on exports and and that sort of thing, are going to make it more and more difficult for them to resupply their forces. On the other hand, they still are a much larger country which with many more young men they could call up. How do you
see that that kind of opposing dynamics working. So you look in history and you find what what olgies there existing, and you see that wars that start what they think they're going to be over quick It's called the Allerle Battle. The short war kind of mentality that which Russia had. They thought this was going to be over very quickly in a in a fast few days. But now two
d days later it's into this scalemate war. But Christian and as history is shown the country that ends up winning this kind of war, the ones that have the higher industrial strength. Well, that's still Russia. Russia still has this capacity, as you said, to put the troops and material and men and into this fight, whereas Ukraine is going to be somewhat limited. However, it now comes down
to the West. If the West does resupply, if the West does provide material, we have the Germans that should be providing pans or tanks and the like, but they haven't haven't done them yet. Um. If the West stills remains strong at this then they can possibly extend this out. But but again history does show that that that you still have to look at Russian So they have tremendous capability, which is why we can't say that this is they haven't They're losing, but they haven't lost yet. In Ukraine
is winning, but they haven't one yet either. How much reinvolved in this counter offensive, do you have any idea It's got to do with intelligence and the artillery systems and the fact that we were able to deliver munitions basically on time. If we're chasing the Russians on the other side of the of the of the river, that
they all sort river. I think that, Um, you know, we we were providing them the kind of information that allowed the Ukraine military to attack where they knew that Russia was weak, and they you know, kind of the the old saying, kind of punch a hole in something and see what happens. Well, every time they punched a hole there, uh, they kept going further on further. That's
the only way I can see them doing this. I mean, some of those Russian units left behind uh food, the rations that were in in in uh in containers and the like. I mean, we're treating armies to do things that are crazy all the time. But the amount of convoys, the prisoners of all all these things, the Russians couldn't get out of there fast enough. And I just look at that and say, you know, we we had the intel. We gave them the intel to know where they could attack.
So they were likely had great optics. Russia was likely blinded, didn't know what was going on, and allowed the Ukraine forces to really route the Russian forces there. So what you're saying about, you know, the bigger country, greater industrial output, it's undeniable. Um, but I'm picturing what the next you know, chapter of the Russian effort might look like and I'm picturing worse supplies, even more antiquated arms and constcripts they've called up. I mean, presumably the first wave of guys
was the best they had. Yeah, they're they're they're getting their most of their conventional forces destroyed right now on the field. Um, what does what does China do to China allow its client state to be humiliated like this? Um, we see that they're getting are totally shells from North Korea. And that's because likely the things they had in stores for the past twenty years that they they're pulling out
have been rusted and they can't use it. They can't, they're not they're not able to um to fire them effectively. Uh So again you lay this all over, but they still have this induct industrial strength. Think North first, the South in the Civil War, right as much as the
South fought admirably in certain places. I mean, you know, July three, eighteen sixty three, if that day goes any different, If pickets charged, um succeeds and the South gets to the high watermark and the North loses that battle, we have a completely different country. Well that's what's happening right now there that Ukraine military is finding ferociously doing a lot of things on support. But the bottom line has never grinded down eventually by the North because it had
more industrial power. That's what's gonna take place here now. It's not going to happen overnight, but that's what's gonna happen over the next six months. Wow. See your referenced that particular Civil war battle. Um, so that's the way a big, big war can go, just that one that one day, that one battle, that one decision. Huh yeah, I think so. I think you look at things overnight saying,
like dd a June. There are certain times in history we had that day gone differently, the world's completely changed. I think that's the most significant day. That get it. That day in Geinsburg was the most significant day in
the nineteenth century. I think. I think every teenager in America should be paid to go to Gettysburg and see the sacrifice that was made that day by Union soldiers for those three days, and and in particular both sides, both sides, both north and south, on the field that day. Amen to that, you know, I was just rereading an account of Gettysburg again, which they made clear that at a couple of critical moments there was a literal foot race for the high ground and guys who got their
three strides first one and and repelled the rebels. So anyway to that point, Mike lyons military analysts on the line, Uh, it's just one more note because I can't let it go. What the hell's up with Germany? Why are they not delivering?
Is it their domestic politics or what it's it's it's annoying. Yeah, No, it's hard to say domestic politics since you know, you think about where Germany was eighty years ago and where they are today, and there's you know, they have they do have the largest GDP of all those European countries. I think, for example, if they don't get in the game, that you're gonna see the polls and you're gonna see the Ukraine absolutely sabotage North Stream and North Dream to
those pipelines. Are gonna make sure that Germany doesn't get anything from Russia. It's not coming from there at least, I don't know. I think they everybody wants to wake up one day and have it be February twenty one, where this all just kind of goes away. Um, but they own in those tanks, say old them, the artillery pieces, air defense platforms. Germany has the most capability of those of those NATO countries right now to make a difference.
And and right now they haven't been in The question is that, you know what are they going to get in again in the game. They won't because uh, they still are hoping among hope that some deal can get worked down. My final question the Wall Street Journal editorial board today saying we need to be concerned about putting using nuclear weapons? Is that still something we should concern ourselves with? How much probably tactical nukes. I don't think that.
I think it escalates things, that it hurts both sides obviously, but it also would require then, um, you know, Russian citizens would get more involved because I know Ukraine doesn't have these nukes. They can try to say they're coming from NATO. But I think that we're still a little bit of ways from that. I don't expect him to to do that right now. You know, he's got he's gonna probably try to wait this out for six months.
He's gonna try to freeze out Europe. He's going to hope that Western ryance fails, and he hopes that two years from now he'll be able to claim victory. But right now he's he's really the Russian military isn't really bad shape. Mike Clients, military analyst, Mike, always enlightening. Thanks
a million for the time. We appreciate it. So then the political stuff that you're just talking about with Germany, Ian Bremer, you know, he studies this sort of thing for a living, but he doesn't think the European countries are gonna cave on this energy commitment, that they're gonna go ahead and really suck it up and have a really harsh, difficult, expensive winter and are and are willing to uh to sacrifice in a way that you know, as is often the case, we as Americans aren't actually
having to sacrifice other than tax dollars um and we're stealing those from our children as usual deficit spending. Right um, the Europeans are gonna, they're gonna, they're gonna notice it right away. They're gonna they're they're what it's gonna cost to heat your home is just gonna be crazy if
you can at all. But Ian Bremer seems to think that based on all the bowling and I saw some of the other days what not, like eighties and ninety percentile approval for continuing to support the Ukrainians, that they aren't they in Europe, Yeah, that they aren't going to cave. Well, sunny Spain and Portugal, in the south of France, they need to take refugees from northern Europe at least for
the wintertime. A bunch of fat, pale Germans stretched out on the beach there in Portugal, for instance, just just to help out. I just think that could be a big deal. I think I think Putin is counting on here winners coming. That's when they cave, that's when they all turn against it. And uh and I get my big advantage. And if, if, if Europe survives the winter with the population still being supportive of the war in Ukraine, I think Putin's gonna have a long spring and summer. Yeah, yeah,
it could be. Well, Germany give him those tanks. What is this? What is your story? Germany? So weak, big promises and no delivery. Uh, Barre strong and Jetty