Protecting The Incumbents: Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G

to do with you, Jack. Thank you. What do you think of this idea of the Republicans trying to focus on a few issues to make it clear to the American people this is what we'll do for you. I think it's a great idea. I think it's important to offer contrast and to offer ideas, as you know, not not just saying hey, we're not going to beat them, but to say, listen, what are what are some of the things that Republicans will do if they have the

opportunity to be in the majority in the house? And it's very similar to what new gingridge did the contract with America, focusing in on a few really important issues like around the economy and how Republicans are gonna try and help to make things more affordable in our country after the decimation we've seen from inflation and now coming recession. Uh, you know, talking about health care and how to make healthcare more affordable and accessible to people. So I think

it's great to have an agenda. I think the challenge obviously now is how much bandwidth and how much attention is it going to get in the closing weeks of a campaign, when when really substance tends to go out the door, unfortunately, and it's all about, you know, attacks in this and one way and the other. I do think it's a good idea to offer the alternative. I wish they've done it a little bit earlier, quickly. Yeah,

that's interesting. We're talking about that earlier. Just how and I'm sure both parties are trying to figure this out. In the modern world, people are starting to vote in certain areas of the country today. So when do you when do you announce your closing message? You know, gazillions of people, like myself, I'm still a show up at the polling place and vote on voting day. I just for some reason like doing it that way. But you know that's a shrinking group of people. So when do

you when do you unleash your closing argument now? Yeah, it's interesting. The modern campaign has extended. Uh, you know very much so. I mean we already knew it was extending earlier, but when you talked about a closing message, it used to be the case that you would have a closing message in the last week of October and

you'd run two weeks. I remember doing a bunch of different presidential campaigns over the years and we would sort of go into that closing argument, you know, right around Halloween and it gives herself usually a nice runway of about a week, a week and a half to really close strong. But to your point, I mean you look at the state of California as an example. Ballots will be in the mail October tent and it creates essentially

a rolling for week ellection. In Pennsylvania, I understand someone told me that they've got ballots out already in Pennsylvania. You can already request an abstency ballot now. So it is an extended period of time and it changes the character of campaigns, changes the nature of what campaigns and candidates need to do and and it's it's almost like you've got to start building into your closing argument through

the month of September and into October. And you know, as I think about my own handed to seeing what we're doing here in California, that that's how we're approaching it. We're approaching it as a a lengthy period of time over which you need to build your case, as opposed to what it used to because about, you know, ten days to two weeks. Do you think that's better? or

or or not? I I feel like I understand the, you know, um of a democratic, small D democratic view of making sure everybody has plenty of time to vote, stretching out that sort of thing, but in terms of focusing the nation's attention on issues, to have a conversation about a debate about it, I think the longer period

is not working. Yeah, let me tell you what it does, in my view, is it protects incumbents, because if you're if you're already in office, and people show up and they say, Oh, this guy is already a congressman or this gal is already a member of the state legislature, then you have a built in amount of name. I D or a built in amount of recognition that a

challenger does not have. So when you lengthen the period of time over which they've got to compete, in my view what it does is it makes it easier for the incumbent too to hang on because because, quite frankly, you know, the incumbent is already going to have that and and it's just that's kind of my view, because I think what happens is the incumbent has all of the resources and all the ability to communicate over that

period of time. The challenge is probably still raising money right the challenger is still trying to figure out how do I get my my name idea out there and people are already voting, so it's too late by the time that they actually get around the delivering a message. So that's my sort of more cynical view. The reasons period getting ended is because incumbents can protect themselves. Sometimes cynical is just accurate. So the people that are already

in charge made the rules easier to keep them in charge. Yeah, I mean, I look, I think you see it in a lot of different places right. I think you see it in different states. You know, certainly there is an effort underway to make sure that incumbents are, you know, more more, more closely enscons, more care lanscons in their positions, and I don't think that's necessarily a good thing, but I think that incumbents do write the rules and then

they have the advantage. What's actually gonna be on the mind of most voters as they vote, whether they're voting today or the first week in November? NBC has done this thing with their polling where they break the economy into like three different topics, inflation, jobs and something else, so that that waters down those numbers and they can claim that abortions the number one issue when if you put all the economic stuff together, it is far and away the number one issue. So what, in your mind,

is actually going to be the top of mind issues? Who? Who Was it that said it's the economy stupid? Was that James Carville, the political consultant for Bill Clinton? It is always, I think, predominantly, the the economy that drives voter decision making, and you know the economy can take lots of different forms. Right. I mean to your point. Is it that I'm paying a lot more for Gas and food? Is it that I feel like my job

is at risk. Is it that I feel that the economic conditions in our country are generally unstable and unsteady? Those are all related. Yes, they're separate, specific concerns and if you ask someone to put their finger on it, is it inflation or is it it's very hard for folks to do that. But the reality is it is these kitchen table issues. I mean I see it every

day campaigning all over the state of California. When I talk to people, predominantly, I will tell you, like nine times out of ten, the first thing someone will tell me is, you know what I'm I'm really frustrated with how much gas they'll call. I'm really frustrated. I'm really I'm really concerned about what's happening with our economy. I keep hearing it's slowing down, mortgage rates are soaring, it's making it harder for me to afford a house. All

of these things, these are all related issues. So I think the economy, by and by and large, is going to be the major issue of this campaign. Yeah, I think you're right. I I'm at that point in my life where I can, you know, afford to live, but I often think about what would I have done when I was twenty five. I'm not sure what I would have done. I couldna have filled up my car and

gone to the grocery store. It's crazy. Yeah, well, and I think the other piece of it is that people look at Um the current conditions, and they just don't see him getting better. You know. That's the other thing is that it's not like there's a ton of hope out there that we're going to see a dramatic end to inflation or that interest rates are going to come back down, because they're not. I mean interest rates are headed in the in the other direction. Right I think

we're seeing home loan rates for the thirty year. At least I heard it was up over six percent, which is remarkable and where it was just just, you know, twenty four months ago. So I think it's Um. It is not just the state of the economy but a sense that the people in charge, I don't know what they're doing, they're not they're not doing what it takes

to improve the situation. That that gets me too. It is there gonna be a price paid for Joe Biden saying things like, you know, like you did on sixty minutes, and has in various other Um settings where he says, oh, look, look, it was zero, zero. Nobody's feeling like inflation is your own. Yeah, I think that the challenge politicians have, particularly people who are in office, is, you know, they risk looking like they are Um, under selling or under estimating what's happening

in people's lives. And when you say, for example, I mean this whole crop about inflation being transitory, which I still I'm not sure who came up with that one, but this idea that you know, everything is fine, keep calm, the economy is doing fine. The economy is not doing fine.

All right, the reality is, if you look at the economic indicators, there are some serious warning signs that we're seeing slowing if you look at a lot of different measures that economists used to evaluate whether we're headed toward recession, a lot of those things are flashing red right now. They're saying, listen, we're going to have a slowdown and and labor markets, uh, you know, are still relatively tight,

but that you know, that could change. And so I think the reality is that we are headed for challenging economic times and politicians risk looking like they're out of touch if they don't acknowledge that. But but if they're gonna catch twenty two, Joe Biden's gonna catch twenty two because on the one hand he can't really afford to say what is the truth, which is that the economy is in trouble, because politically he's got to sound like a cheerleader. But if you're a cheerleader then you sound

like you're out of touch. That that's a challenge. That's challenge he has. That's a good point. Is Joe Biden gonna run again? I don't know. I'm probably the last person to aspect because I just I don't I don't know enough about the uner workings of that White House or the party to know. But I will say this. I think there's a lot of people chomping at the bit to either to run against him or hoping he doesn't run so it opens a pathway. Um. But I

you know, I mean I don't know. Like I I look at him sometimes and I think, Jeez, this is Um. Can he make you know, can he really be an effective campaigner for another presidential campaign? I mean these things are grueling. Yeah and well, and this is not gonna be one you can do from your home on zoom. Probably you'd actually have to track everything correct. You actually have to go out and meet people and you know, I think at one point in his career that was

actually strange. Yeah, absolutely, to get out there and meet people and connect with people. I just think it's hard now, you know. I mean everybody reaches an age where it's it's just a more challenging and his problem is, frankly, it's less what Republican he's going to run against, is that there's a lot of ambitious Democrats who want to take him out, you know, and that's that's his bigger problem.

Is Gavin gonna run? Boy, sure seems like it. I mean he's positioning himself that way and trying to imagine why you'd run ads in Florida like that, is the governor of California, if you're running for president. You know, there's this concept in politics, these politicians call it a free shot election, where basically you've got a job and so you go and run for something else because it's a free shot. And Gavin running for President in twenty four is a free shot because he's probably gonna get

you reelected this fall. And if he gets re elected, then what is that mean he has four years right as governor, and so two thousand twenty four falls right in the middle of that. Why not? Right? It's like

why not give it a shot? So, you know, I think he is in a similar position to others who would evaluate and look at it and if they don't feel like there's a political price to be paid for running against an incumbent president or, in the alternative of the incumbent president decides not to run, they may just say, hey, why not give it a shot, you know? So I don't know. Sometimes it's it's just a way of raising their profile nationally too. I'm real close to out of time.

This is gonna have to be a short answer. Just trump run again? I you know, I it's hard for me to say. If you'd ask me a couple months ago, I would have said yeah, I think he will run. Now it's it's it's just a little bit more up in the air, but I think if you had to bet, I'd say yeah, I think he's gonna run. Interesting. So if you live in California, vote for Lawnie Chen for controller, because we need that. And if the only times thinks

it's true, wow, it's really true. Thank you, Lonie. Appreciate your time today. Thanks Jack Barn strong and Jetty