From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Jetty Armstrong and Jetty Show. Uh. You know, in many ways, I think of John Kennedy and the Bay of Picks. Uh. Uh, you know, it unfolded quickly, and uh, the president thought that everything would be fine and that was not the case. But President Kennedy took responsibility for what took place. And I strongly recommend the President Biden that he take responsibility admit the
mistakes that were made. That's Leon Panetta, former Secretary Defense and Secretary ran the CIA. Um. I'm not you know, for domestic consumption that sort of stuff is important. I'm not sure on the global stage if any of that matters right now. Yeah, the President is taking it from all sides. But yeah, let's talk about the global effects. Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group. They helped business leaders, policy makers, and folks like us understand the
world around us. In Bremer joins us, see and how are you sir? Hey gonna be back with you guys. You're one of the many Twitter feeds I followed a lot over the weekend trying to get kind of a global perspective of this. How is the rest of the world, whether it's the Middle East or China gonna interpret what's happened in the last week. Oh the China. Chinese are doing donuts right now saying the US is in decline and if you're Taiwan, this shows you you can't trust
the Americans and we're going to take over soon. I mean, you know that they are leaning into a debacle on the ground and saying that that reflects American weakness. Um. The Allies, of course, are are deeply concerned because they were not consulted. They fought with the Americans side by side in Afghanistan for twenty years, but when it came time to leave, that decision was made unilaterally on an internal domestic policy review by Biden, and they're not happy
about that. UM. So know, when you're right, I'm Biden is taking it from all sides right now. There is no easy way to lose a war. And you know, I do think that Biden may makes a compelling case for why he made the decision to leave, and by the way, a popular decision at home in the United States. But but making that decision and then actually affecting that decision.
On the ground are two very different things, and it's very clear from the last seventy two hours that the United States has made some very big mistakes on the ground. There's a tendency to make grand, grand pronouncements when something like this occurs. It's a good way to get the air and clicks in the rest of it. Uh, do you think when the dust settles a year or two from now, this is going to be seen as a major global development or just another chapter in Afghanistan's long
troubled history. It's not over yet. Um. I think that as long as no Americans are killed as we close this um to be a big spike in attention on the nine eleven anniversary when the Taliban are parading all of the American equipment material that they've stolen and you know, the embassy's closed and Talidan flags on top of it, and that that's gonna be bad in the United States and globally. But that's not you know, you asked me midterm elections, is Afghanistan playing a big role? The answer
is no, as long as it doesn't get worse. But you know, you still have five ten thousand Americans on the ground right now in Afghanistan, and you guys will forgive me if I don't trust the Taliban when they say that they're not going to interfere with the ability of Americans to get out. I'd rather get the Americans out first and then then then say, Okay, it's done.
Because if we end up with a hostage type situation like we did with the American embassy in Tehran and seventy nine, this will be the end of Biden's presidency. He will he will have destroyed it. And I don't think that's going to happen, but it's not like a one percent chance. There's a real possibility of that. So I mean, let's just recognize that we're still in it right now. How How would Taiwan, for instance, not look at this and think, wow, I'm not sure they're gonna
come to our defense. Well, there's a big difference between Taiwan and say, Afghanistan. I put Afghanistan more in the Ukraine and Georgia camp. These are countries that, irrespective of what we say, we don't actually care about because we don't have significant national interests at play. And so when they get invaded by the Russians in the case of Ukraine or Georgia, or when the Taliban takes over in
the case of Afghanistan, we just pull out. We say, hey, sorry, We'll support human rights and maybe we'll put some sanctions on. But that's it. I mean, if the Chinese were to take Taiwan, I want to be very clear um our our industry in the United States. I mean, you know, anything from atomotives to home appliances to advanced technology. We don't have semi conductors. Of all semi conductors exported globally
come from Taiwan. There is this is a critical national interest in the United States and there is no question in my mind that we would defend it. Uh and and that that speaks to the US military engagement, to the arms sales, to the to the fawn ops, the freedom of navigation operations we have in the region. And to be clear, the Chinese government is very well aware
of that. So there is a difference between the propaganda that we're hearing from the Chinese government right now that trumpets American declinism and the reality of the balance of power, the strategic ambiguity, which is the name of that policy that we have with taiwan Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, is on the line Ian the administration, the President himself look very shaky to us right now, not inspiring a lot of confidence in you know, our national security situation.
What do you think they're saying in the parlors of Chairman Shire or in Moscow or Tehran about Biden in the administration. Yeah, they think that he's made a big mistake. This is the first foreign policy crisis of his administration, and it's largely self inflicted. Um and they think he looks weak. And they know that the credibility of American commitments, which had been shaken under Trump's America First administration, has now been further damaged under Biden. Despite the fact that
Biden is all about America is back. But let's also be clear that China has big problems right now. The third largest port in the world is presently partially closed because of delta variant in China, and their vaccines don't really work against delta variant ours do in the United States. They've got big debt problems, they've got big demographic problems. I mean, they're increasingly shutting down international I p O s because they can't control their local corporations, even though
the private sector drives most of their efficiency. So I mean, if you ask United States, right and uh, and that that continues to be the case. It's funny you bring up COVID and that this is the first story that has bumped COVID off the front page since COVID started. And I mean we've we've done a couple of days where we barely mentioned COVID. What what is the COVID
story globally right now? Well, the global story today, and it's quite linked to Afghanistan, is that the United States in the coming days is going to approve um third booster shots for the entire American population that has already been vaccinated eight months after the second vaccination, after the course has been completed. And the World Health Organization is strongly opposing the United States doing that while most of
the global population hasn't gotten their first jab yet. And they're saying, look, if you want to give you know, your immuno compromise people booster shots. Fine, that's a tiny percentage of the population. But this is a global problem. We've got to pay attention to the rest of the world. And the by administration's response is, actually, I'm not president of the world. I'm just President of the United Staiths, and I really don't care about what happens in these
other countries. Now he's not saying it that way, and we're providing donations to other countries. But to be very clear, right the rest of the world is looking at the US and is increasingly sensing that American interests, irrespective of who the president is, increasingly do not align well with the interests of their own countries or the world as a whole. A bit of a general question, when do you see the world's economic supply chain situation getting back
to something close to normal? Um, you know, I think that the issue is your still going to see a lot of rolling disruptions because countries are responding to COVID in such different ways, and because the delta variant has so much spread. So I mean China, the supply chain for China. You'll remember, over a year ago was almost fully back up and running. This was second quarter two
thousand twenty, and today you're seeing rolling disruptions again. Why Because the Chinese government has zero tolerance for spread, especially with vaccines that don't work. Very well. There's still a lot of spread that we're going to see in middle and lower income economies, and that means that we're not going to have uh, you know, international tourism back to what it was. We aren't going to have those citizens allowed to travel to other countries where they can make
more money and send remittances back home. So I think that supply chain will still see rolling disruptions probably until you know, mid to late at a minimum. Well, the reason I asked is because my wife and I have been waiting for our dining room set for six months. Do you have any idea where it is? Where's it coming from? Probably China? I don't even know. You wantn't you get a van and go to North Carolina like a real American buy something that Americans decent picked it out?
Are you teating your wife? I mean, yeah, who's in charge in your household? We really have to ask that. Um My, My final question flitted out of my head because I've got senior moment happening. What was it about?
It was about? So is Afghanistan justice? So we're you know, how however messy this is gonna be over the last couple of weeks assuming we get most people out and everything like that, is Afghanistan just gonna be a hellhole run by these fundamentalist nut jobs that brutalize the population for the near future. Uh well, I mean is in the sense that they it's easy for the Taliban to take over the country, they're not going to be able
to run it very well. I mean, the northern territories will still be effectively run by warlords, bill engage in lots of you know, rapacious taxation of local farmers. Uh. And the farmers will have to grow opium so that they can make enough money to be able to pay it. But they're not going to be governed by the Taliban. The Taliban will govern you pockets of the country and some cities and kabul Um. And so when you see the Chinese thing, they're gonna come in. They're gonna befriend
these guys. Maybe they'll invest back. Before nine eleven, Unakal was trying to build a pipeline that was going to connect Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan. It was the geo politically stupidest pipeline everyone anyone had ever thought of trying to build. It never happened. Um. Now we say we're talking about oil, we're talking about rare earths, and they're trillions of dollars
or rare earths are located underneath Afghanistan. The only problem that you have to actually invest there, and the Chinese are going to find that equally challenging over the long term, Taliban's gonna have high taxes. The Opian fathers need to pay their fair share, beautiful, Ian Bremer, President of your Asia Group. Ian, we always appreciate when you carve off a couple of minutes for us. Thanks a million, I think you guess. Thanks, We've got a hundred airs and
thousand airs. I need to pay their fair share. How many goats does one man need? Oh geez, By the way, I just got a text from Judy North Carolina. Yeah, I figured you bought real furniture or not the Chinese furniture that I usually get. Yeah, I got like a
couple of real pieces of furniture. They're way better. They cost a lot more, but they're way better, I mean, and if your kids want them, they'll be in great shape when your kids are you know of age, although from what I hear, you know generation Z they sit on the floor they eat off the cardboard boxes they used for use for the furniture. The key difference between real furniture and cheap crappy furniture. Cheap crappy furniture, you reach under it to move, you're gonna get jabbed with
a staple. Real furniture, you are not like China. That is the difference. I got a big old scar on my forearm. I don't know if you can see it. It's faded a little bit, but it looks like a suicide attempt because I reached behind a cheap crappy sofa in the hotel room to unplug my charger and it just sliced my entire four arm open. Cheap crappy furniture China, uh text line four one five two nine five kftc