What we now have is Iran versus Israel. Each time one hits the other, the other feels they have to do something. That's you know, the typical security spiral, where one side does something that it believes it has to do the other side can't do nothing. Then that triggers, you know, a further one. So up goes the ratchet. So far it's been calibrated and calculated, but it could get out of hand. That's Freed Zakaria on CNN this morning.
There was a retaliatory attack by Israel in Iran, actually attacked in Iran last night, but Israel hasn't claimed they have and Iran hasn't claimed that they were attacked. Only our pentagon has said that this happened, and so officially it's you know, it's it's interesting. Neither neither the attacker or the attack he's willing to admit it happened. How intriguing.
Let's discuss with CNN military analyst Mike Lions. Mike served with various military organizations both the US and Europe throughout his career, and I would like to talk about Europe in a bit.
But Mike, greetings, how are you taking one of you guys, great to be back.
First of all, how much damage was done in this attack by Israel on Auran.
Well, we don't know specifically, we haven't seen the battle damage assessment enough to you know, create the flak. It range decided, you know, obviously to try to shoot it down.
But the bottom line is it got through and it was a military target in the same coincidentally a location where Iran converts mine uranium before it figures to that third stage where it gets to that enrichment stage, and in the FURDO and the files reason in order to create nuclear capability like we all saw Oppenheimer, right, So that's what definitely goes down. But it's definitely close enough. So I think there was two issues here. Number One,
they took out it was a military target. They took out what was an air base and likely created runways, and took out F fourteens you know, planes from literally fifty years ago, and Isuel could claim that they were part of that initial barrage that took place last week on Sunday. But the second thing, it's just close enough to that nuclear facility, and the message from Israel to Iran is we could get any of these facilities we want.
Your air defense platforms are just not capable. And the difference between you firing weapons and US firing weapons that you as ours will actually hit the.
Target well, sensor Ran seems to be really close to a bomb at least that's what the reporting was last week. Why didn't Israel just go ahead and take out their nuclear facilities?
It would be too difficult. That would be a very serious military campaign. I'm not even sure you'd accomplish that. You would set it back if you destroyed it, but you would. You know, they've diversed this program through multiple different areas up and down inside of Iran, and I don't think you know, it would be more than one strike. It would be an absolute campaign in order to take
it out. This facility in particular would be important. It's kind of the second phase and that nuclear enrichment process, and so you know you have to have all three. But also, you know, the intellectual capital now is inside of Iran to do this. It's not like when he ISRAELI stick out Ostrich in eighty one or took up the Syrian one in Iusozo six and sometime in thear O seven. They you know, those are facilities built by someone else, the North Koreans or the Chinese, those countries
really had no idea what was going on. They kind of outsourced it. Iron's got this capability now that they know, they've got scientists, they have the intellectual capital. So you're not going as ye's out of the bottle. You know, they're not going to ever be set back. Whether it's now fifty years from now, Eventually they're going to want to develop this kind of nuclear nuclear capability for power, and then potentially that does lead to you know, a potisla nical weapon.
Well, golly, that's something to look forward to. Back to the strike in Farid Zakaria's point there that it's the inevitable obligatory counter strike and ratcheting up, it feels pretty clearly to me to be a ratcheting down.
What do you think, Yeah, I think so deterrence is based on offensive capability, and that's what we're talking about when we say deterrence is becoming restored. You know, when the White House tells Israel, you know, take the w nothing got through. Defensive posture does not deter anybody in the future. It doesn't you know that the next time the Iranians can attack with six hundred missiles or one thousand missiles or you know, whatever's in their inventory. Who's
to say that that won't get through. So so from from a just a just a definition perspective, you know, there's no there was no deterrence, and that's what Israel had to do. Number one is re established the deterrence and that's an offensive capability. And so that's what they did. And by sending the message that the again the Iranian air defense platforms, they went after them. The looks that they took out a few of those, some radar sites as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they took out
some along the way. They likely, if Iron is smart, they've prepositioned radarf forward in places like Syria and these other little locations in the Middle East, as they have their fingerprints everywhere there. So I think that from from Israel's perspective, they had to strike back offensively. They had to have a target hit the ground. And oh, by the way, you didn't you didn't see any Chinese or Russian air of fence platforms going after why because Roan
doesn't have any those kind of allies. So this is where you know, but for the United States, some of those missiles make it, make it make it through the other night. But this is a case where it's going to have allies that the US has arn doesn't have
any those allies. And should Israel decide now that I think de terrence has been restored, Aron now knows that if it wants, all it's going to do is readjust that next fire mission and instead of hitting that military target in that town, they can hit in Istlan, they can hit the whole nuclear facility there.
Yeah. I got to say, I learned something last night from your tweet. And it's obvious once it's stated, this is probably the sort of thing they teach you at West Point. But deterrence is restored by showing your offensive capability, not your defensive capability. And yeah, yeah, so saying hey, hey, I could stop you doesn't work. You got to hit them so hard. Yeah, that's really interesting.
Yeah, yeah, and that's what I think. That's why I had to respond, And I thought it might have been a little more covert. And who knows what else what's going on. There could be cyber attacks going on, There could be all kinds of other things that they're doing, and people that I've been talking to think that it'll go back into more of the shadows now. And you know, if you're a scientist, keep your head on a swivel.
And I think that, or I still not to say Israel is not going to attack inside a Syria or attack military targets that Iranian hall.
All right, as I said, as I said earlier, if I'm a reigning nuclear scientist, I wouldn't go out for a jog at night.
Yeah, or have a cup of tea. Here, I have this cup of tea. It's going to be really good. Give us a shot.
So, Mike, I asked this, not for political reasons, but geo political historical reasons. Have you an answer if you'd like, as a dad, as a coach, as a military commander, whatever. How pathetic is it the whole don't don't when time after time they went ahead and did.
Did Yeah, yeah, it's you're not a sun also that serves right now. So it is very concerning that level of rhetoric. And I'm not sure who it's two. Is it too Alan or is it actually to a political body out in Michigan some place that he's trying to gather votes for I mean somebody's size right now. Are talking internally as opposed to externally. You used to have a country where an administration, you know, there would be a sign on the wall that says the priority is
the country, period, full stop. And anytime someone came up with some kind of crazy hair green schemes, it wasn't. So how did they do with that? Because if it doesn't, we're not going to do it well. Saying things like don't or things like take the w you're good to go, I mean like it. It's not in the best interest of our country. It's in the best interest frankly, that Israel puts as much military spank on Iran as possible and to beat their capability. Look, they get thousands of
these rockets. They only sent three hundred the other day. If the Iranians would like they could, they could fire a thousand, and I guarantee some of them would make their way through. They're they're dumb. You know what I mean by that? Those ballistic missiles are travel in a way that they're not you can't really aim them. They've got all kinds of things, and that they're like those scud missiles from the nineties, they could hit anywhere, and so it's kind of hard to hit them down, and
so that that could still happen. So let this get brat get back to speak softly and carry a big stick, not to speak, you know, dumbly and carry you know, whatever happens. Mother comes next, you.
Know, amen to that. So you use the term flack earlier, which trip the trigger in my head. Have you watched Masters of the Area yet the series? Yeah, what do you think of it?
Yeah, terrific. I think that story has not been told, you know, each of these different interest groups, you know, the Army's story always gets told with you know, obviously Banded Brothers and Saving Private Ryan the best the best movie I've ever seen that replicates combat frankly, and then you set the Pacific that series because each of the you know, and the story of the Air Force pilots has not really been told there. But it also demonstrated
what that life was like. I mean, they would go out, maybe get shot down, if not, they come back, they go up, maybe get shut down, come back, they go up, they get shot down and become a pow and you know, you know, that's not the same as a tactical situation on the ground, but the courage of those crews, I mean, deciding when to bail out at five thousand feet or ten thousand feet in you know, non static line parachutes, and it just it's incredible and the courage that they show.
So I'm glad that story was finally told for all those those in the eighth the Air Force back at the time, which is part of the Army, actually the Army Air Force Corps back then. Tremendous story, I.
Think, yeah, well you understand why for the British version of that Churchill's quote. Have never had so many owed so much to so few, I mean, as a hell of a thing to do right right, exactly? A final question for me at least, Mike, we're discussing the situation Ukraine, Putin the funding the rest of it earlier, and we're discussing the likelihood that certain voices are correct, that Putin would continue to press forward and at the very least grab up just a little chunk of Poland on some
pretext and just a bit of estonia. You know, Well, Hitler in thirty eight style strategy, how concerned about that? Do you think that's paranoia or just a pitch to get more funding, or do you think that's a realistic possibility.
Now, a pitch to get more funding. He's not any position to take any of these other lands. He can barely contain what he's got in Ukraine right now, although from a just a grinding out perspective, he continues to do that. But if they do take Poland or Estonia, those are NATO countries and that trigger's Article five and here we go. But I don't think that that that, you know, Russia has that capability. You know, you go
back to the terrence. Part of that sixty billion dollar package would be the terrence because if Russia knew that the Ukraine's can draw on that kind of thing, that would really, you know, potentially stop them and decide that they're going to negotiate at that point in time. Well, the other thing too, is we're both seeing both of these platforms, both of these theaters. Is the importance of
air defense. I'll tell you right now, find the air defense companies, invest in them, because when these flicks are over, countries are going to really recognize the importance of protecting their airspace. I think we've talked about that before. But it's just more or less really come now to be as we saw when Israel like violates the Iranian airspace last night without without any kind of problem at all.
You're seeing even in Ukraine. Now, if Ukraine, if we'd let the Ukraine take some of these offensive weapons attacking the Russia, they would be have they'd have some real problems too. I think they're you know the airpens platforms that Iran has. Oh by the way, those are sic three hundreds, those are Russian, may Chinese made systems. It's all the same crap, and it just goes to show the superior of the Western technology in the battlefield right now.
Uh CNN Military analyst Major Mike Lions Mike always enlightening. Really enjoyed the chat. Have a great weekend, looking forward to talking again.
Great guys. Had an aspect's looking forward to the weekend taking Oh.
Cool, have fun, go to the sphere. I went to the sphere Armstrong ANDETI