China On The Ropes.  Gordon Chang talks to Armstrong & Getty - podcast episode cover

China On The Ropes. Gordon Chang talks to Armstrong & Getty

May 13, 20198 min
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Episode description

China is issuing tariffs on American goods as the trade war is escalating between the two nations.  Gordon Chang joined Armstrong & Getty to talk about why he thinks China is up against the ropes in this long-fought war.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

When you're ready to ride Metro, we want you to know we're ready for you. Here are just a few of the people at Metro to tell you how we're doing our part to keep writers safe. We're cleaning before you have found halfs out of suns of statist no masks, no Metro need one. We have a few extras at Metro. We're doing our part to keep the DC area moving. Find out more at well Notta dot com slash doing

our part. My judgment, the economic consequences are so small, but the possible improvement in trade and exports and open markets from the United States, this is worthwhile doing. That's

the gamble. That's the gamble to me. The biggest differences uh In the United States we have an electure for a couple of years and politicians are answerable immediately to the voters, whereas in China they can wait a long time, and you don't have a media intentionally whipping up fear and angst, some of which may be justified, was certainly not all. Gordon Chang joins this. Gordon is an author and calumnist, an authority on Asian affairs, and a realist.

You can find him at Gordon g Chang, and he's also calumnist at The Daily Beast. Gordon welcome, How are you, sir? I'm fine, thank you, and thank you so much. It's our pleasure. Why is the Trump administration willing to endure the pain of tariffs, the controversy, etcetera. What is the goal? Well,

there are a number of goals. You know, President Trump talks about evening out the trade deficit, but also I've got to remember that the tariffs and question are imposed under Section three or one of the Trade Act of nineteen seventy four. These are remedies for the theft of US intellectual property, and China each year steals somewhere between a hundred and fifty to six hundred billion dollars of US i P, probably in the speed of four hundred billion dollar range. This is a grievous moon to the

American economy and we've got to stop it. So Um, that's why we have what people call a trade war. And by the way, the Chinese have been waging this trade war against the US for decades. We've been oblivious, um, and fortunately we have a president who is now willing to take the Chinese. On previous presidents have not been. Yeah, it reminds me it's at the economic version of when we were attacked by al Qaeda and hey, look, they've been at war with us for decades. We just ignored

the fact that they were at war with us. Same thing with this trade war. China has been in a trade war and and and kicking our ass for years and now we're finally responding. Yes, So that's that's absolutely true when you look at the persistent theft of US intellectual property, also just violations of China's World Trade Organization obligations to the United States under sees and paying the

current ruler um. Both ip theft and trade violations have gotten worse, and obviously something has to be done about it. And we can't think that we can get out of decades of miss guy to trade policy without costs. This will cost the American people, but it's a cost that we will have to bear. If we don't bear this cost, we're not going to have an economy of the future. We're not going to have a society of the future. We're gonna end up exporting primary products in China and

buying back manufactured goods. And by the way, some people say that that's a badge of colonialism. So I don't want to be a colony of China, Gordon. Chang is on the line, Gordon. The Chinese economy has has relied substantially on stealing technology, very strong arm tactics, tariffs, that sort of thing for a long time. How far do

you think that Trump administration can push them? Um? How how far can she go without causing such a shock to his entire system that, you know, the Communist Party collapses. I think China is in a very difficult position. Um. We've got to remember that last year, China's merchandise trade surplus with the US accounted for our hundred and nine point six percent of its overall merchandise surplus. That shows

amazing dependence on us. Also, we've got the bigger economy, We've got economy that in reality is growing faster, and we're just not dependent on selling things to China, as the trade statistics show. Um. Siege and Pain doesn't face elections every um four years, but he in effect pass on election every day because he's held responsible for this

trade war. He's held responsible for who lost America. And the reason why I think he withdrew the commitments that he had previously made to the United States for trade was essentially because he realized that he does not have the power to exert his will on other people in the Chinese political system. I think China is in real trouble right now, especially because you know, trade surplus countries

just generally don't win trade wars. China is a surplus country where the deficit country we hold almost all the high cards. Interesting. Yeah, so back to my question, you know, will will they put up with being made to fundamentally change the way they deal with foreign investment and foreign trade or do we just get, you know, an incremental

victory and say, well it's better. Well, I think that right now, Sieging paying is pursuing this nationalist narrative going back to the Opium War, you know, basically nineteenth century humiliation of China, and that makes us it very hard for him to adjust. UM. So I don't know if

he can actually come to a trade deal. I think we're going to see a long term struggle with China UM, which will be obvious with increased tariffs and were Eventually we're going to see the two economies disengaged from each other. And I think actually that's quite a good thing for us, because long term UM disengagement is the only policy that has not failed. So UM China is going to be is going to go through. You know, you very well may not survive. The Communist Party may not survive this UM,

but you know, we don't have a choice. We've got to defend ourselves, whatever the consequences are for Beijing. Gordon g Chang is the author of Losing South Korea, booklet released by Encounter Books in March of this year. Author and columnist at Gordon g Chang and at The Daily Beast Gordon, it's always enlightening. Thanks very much. Oh, thank you so much. I really appreciate being on your air. Good to talk to you. Thanks. Oh yeah, yeah, he's he's a nice saw mom does mean he likes being

on our show. There's a lot of nice people out there that don't want to be on our show, granted most of them. So you got you got, Gordon. They're saying that, indeed, if we take it to the wall and hold our ground, this could be crippling for g and the Chinese Party. Did everybody follow that whole trade surplus, trade deficit, thing they need to sell to the United States. We're their biggest, you know, customer. We stopped showing up to their soda shops. Soda shop, what is this nineteen

fifty Uh? What do you color? Where you get the like the jamba juice, that's a smoothie. We stopped showing up and valuing the vape pens because we buy a hell of a lot of ape pens. They go out of business. On the other hand, we run the smoothie shop. They only stopped by once a month. That's fine, they stopped coming. We'll be disappointed. We'll lose a little business. But so that's the relationship. But I tell it, he was very bold about how weak they are. I mostly

agree with them, but we'll have to see. I'm still quite optimistic that we reach a good deal. But man, asking a totalitarian communist regime to stop commying on foreign companies and investors, that's that's a big gask. We shall see when you're ready to ride Metro, we want you to know we're ready for you. Here are just a few of the people at Metro to tell you how we're doing our part to keep writers safe. Were cleaning

like never before. Half to the great clean you've found hand sound of sounds of statis all over the Metro. No mask, no Metro need one. We have a few extras at Metro. We're doing our part to keep the DC area moving. Find out more at well mata dot com slash doing our part.

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