Back from the fields: Romania and Ukraine crop tours Apr 26

Welcome to another episode of Back from the Fields. Here we give you our sentiment on the Black Sea wheat crops. For more insights on the Black Sea region production, we conduct crop tours in Ukraine, Russia and Romania in the Black Sea region and also in France. Throughout the year that can be found in the agri markets outlook, weekly and monthly service.

Hi Angelica, hi everyone. It's been an eventful few months since our December forecast so I think there'll be quite a lot to update each other on. Let's start with Ukraine. Angelica, how has the picture changed since last autumn?

So for Ukraine we have made a slight downward revision. Our March Crop Tour puts Ukraine Ukraine's twenty twenty six twenty seven wheat production and twenty three point five million tonnes. This is 0.4 million tons lower than our first crop tour forecast last November.

Yeah, um I've seen in our report that the main driver of this downwards revision is because of harvested area. So what areas are we expecting now?

We have slightly lowered our November forecast for total wheat harvested area and also for planted one. So harvested area is estimated now at 5.1 million hectares, almost in line with last season's area. Uh and uh this is based on preliminary uh official uh data and also our ON estimate.

Okay. And it's worth saying that this could still change when we do our final crop tour update um later this year. Uh how about yields then? Are those holding steady?

Yes, uh we are maintaining our December youth forecast at uh four point six tonne per hectare for youth. It's marginally up from last season and slightly above the five year average. So even with the area um revised down, uh this is still a production above the four season average of around twenty two million tonnes.

Okay, and how were conditions over the winter? I think it was a very cold winter this year, so it can't have been easy.

No, it was not easy at all. Ukrainian farmers had some sharp cold snaps and very low temperatures during the winter months. Uh that said conditions have improved since February, thanks to warmer weather and the start of fertilizer application.

I think it's true to say that fertiliser use will be quite uneven this year. Most farmers had secured supplies before the winter but around 20-30% hadn't and they're now facing very steep price rises. Rwy'r 20-30% sydd wedi'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i'i

Yeah, exactly. Um yeah, if weather stays favorable, the impact could be modest as there will still be some moisture and fertilizer held in the so called famous black soil uh earth of Ukrainian fields. uh which will provide some buffer. But under stress, both youths and train quality could suffer.

Okay, um let's move on to talk about rapeseed in Ukraine then because from what we've been seeing it's been a much harder winter for the oilseed crop.

Very much so, Claudia, yeah. Rap seed conditions vary sharply across regions and uh overall yield potential is below normal this season. In Edessa, for example, crops are holding up relatively low. Southern parts are rated around four out of five by local farmers, our contacts, with rather strong youth potential, while northern zones are showing weaker potential and some fields are in really poor condition.

Felly mae'n ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud?

Yes, nationwide we estimate that around twenty percent of Rapsit area has been lost after winter. Uh it's according to our contacts, so it could be changed. Uh so it's a combination of late sowing and sharp temperature fluctuations during winter. Many rap seed plants entered dormancy with only four to five leaves. They simply were not strong enough uh last autumn.

And what are farmers planning to do with the lost areas?

Uh good question. Uh so in the south farmers are mostly planning to plant with a sunflower. In the central southern regions, corn is a preferred option. In more northern and central areas, soybeans or corn may replace low straps and barley, depending on farmers' production capacity and whether they can sow within optimal timeframes.

Thank you, Angelica, for that update on Ukraine. So now let's turn to Romania, where I think it's fair to say the picture is a little more positive, especially for wheat. Our updated forecast for Romania's twenty twenty six to twenty seven wheat production stands at twelve point six six million tonnes, which is around zero point four million tonnes higher than our December estimate.

Uh that is a strong production potential near record of last season. What is driving it, Claude?

So uh weather conditions have improved largely uh post winter and there's now a higher uh potential for yield. Rydyn ni'n ymwneud â llawer o 5.4 tonnol per haig, sy'n ymwneud â llawer o 5.2 tonnol per haig, sy'n ymwneud â llawer o december. And that's above the long term trend, although it's still a little bit below last season's record. Uh we're still mindful that there could be some risks in the spring before the harvest.

And on the area side, last four we have forecast another increase under wheat, confirming the now established trend of higher wheat and other winter crops plantings at the expense of spring crops.

Yes, so that is still the case. We've uh revised wheat areas down slightly uh from our December figure to 2.35 uh million hectares. Uh in November we were at 2.39 million hectares. And that's based on latest feedback from farmers and on our own internal calculations. Um the area that we're now looking at is still up from the two point two eight million hectares in twenty twenty five to twenty twenty-six, so last year, and it's also above the five year average.

Interesting. And what is um behind this shift towards winter winter crops, please?

So for several years now there's been just too little rainfall in Romania which has led to quality problems and lower margins for spring crops and that's meant that more and more farmers are moving towards planting more winter varieties. Mae'n ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r hyn.

Uh thank you. Uh can we speak uh also a little bit about the crop conditions, starting with bits?

On weeks, all of our contacts report good, very good, or satisfactory conditions in most of their fields, and that's also in line with what we were hearing back in the autumn.

Impressive. Are there any risks that we are watching for in Romania?

Yeah, absolutely. So last year, uh despite a record harvest, there was low soil moisture in the western and northeastern areas of Romania, which did cause us some concern in April. And that same risk could happen again.

So we are like in Ukraine and uh we said that some Ukrainian farmers might skip final fertilizer applications this year. Are we seeing the same in Romania?

Es posible, sí. It's hard to give uh an exact estimate, but when nitrogen fertilizer prices rose six weeks ago at the start of the war in Iran, uh we heard that Romanian farmers still had as much as forty percent of their inputs to cover for the winter crop. Um it's these later stages uh of nitrogen applications which actually contribute more to a higher protein content of the wheat crop, um not just the yield. So even if farmers have applied their first round of nitrogen, any skipping...

Ah yes, interesting. I've read an article that uh in the Agri Markets report. Let us talk about uh Rapsit in Romania. Our conditions are and potential S joins for winter.

So uh things aren't looking quite so good for rapeseed. Um Mae'n ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r hynny. Rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'n rwy'.

And other regional differences also for rap seed.

Yes, uh quite significant ones actually. Um in southeastern Romania, so that's uh including the Constanza area, farmers have been able to reintroduce rapeseed into their rotations this autumn for the first time in several years.

Okay, so the outlook for Epsit is very much rather dependent from here.

Yeah, exactly. So despite rapeseed being quite well known as a resilient crop, uh in difficult weather conditions, farmers do remain cautious. Rydyn ni'n cael ei fod yn unrhyw beth sy'n cael ei fod yn unrhyw beth sy'n cael ei fod yn unrhyw beth sy'n cael ei fod yn unrhyw beth.

Thank you, Claudia. So to summarise, we forecast Ukraine's wheat production at twenty three point five million tons. This is slightly up from last season's result. Romania's Romania's wheat production is projected at twenty twelve point seven million tons, close to last season's record. For rapes, the picture is more mixed in both countries, with winter losses in Ukraine and uneven potential in Romania.

Yes, and I'll be heading to Romania at the start of June to take a look at the fields and catch up with all of our contacts then.

Thank you, Claudia, and thank you for all for listening. Thank you all for listening to us for analysis, insights, prices and clock tool updates. Make sure to check out our agri-market services. We have daily, weekly, and monthly ports that can help you get ahead of the markets. Goodbye, everyone.