Why implementing a no-fly zone over Ukraine could be catastrophic

Good morning! It's Friday, March 4th. I'm Duarte Geraldino.

And I'm Shumita Basu. This is "Apple News Today." Each morning, hear about some of the most fascinating stories in the news and how the world's best journalists are covering them.

Early Friday morning, a fire broke out at a nuclear power complex in Southern Ukraine amid Russian shelling. The fire is out now, and authorities say radiation levels are normal, but now the largest nuclear complex in Europe is in the hands of the Russians. The fire is reported to have started as Russian troops were launching an assault on a string of cities in Southern Ukrainian. This was an effort to control the coasts.

Ukraine and Russia have agreed to temporary local cease fires that would allow civilians to evacuate and vital supplies to get around the country. Ukrainian officials say some areas are running low on essential things like food and medicine. In one city, the local mayor said residents have no "light, water and heat."

In recent days, there have been growing calls from Ukrainians, including the president, for the West to implement a no-fly zone. We heard that cry on yesterday's show from Ukrainian activist Daria Kaleniuk.

We are begging the West to protect our sky, to be able to evacuate these children. Is it too much we are asking for?

Now, the West has said this is a non-starter, that a no-fly zone would be a declaration of war. So I put this to Zach Beauchamp, a senior correspondent at "Vox" who covers global politics and foreign policy.

People often misunderstand what a no-fly zone is, right? Like one analyst that I've seen pointed it out to people describing it as like a magical umbrella that prevents planes from flying there. That's not how it works. You have to shoot down planes that are there. That means Russian planes, right? A no-fly zone is not just like a neutral intervention in the conflict. It's not, you know, something you do to just protect civilians. It is saying you're trying to stop Russia from using one of its major military advantages in the war on Ukraine. It is intervening in the conflict on Ukraine's side. Basically declaring war on Russia. That carries all sorts of different risks of nuclear escalation.

My co-host, Duarte Geraldino, spoke with Ukrainian activist Daria Kaleniuk. And during that conversation, she was calling on the West to take tougher action against Russia. And she was also calling on NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. But she was saying as a humanitarian measure, not a declaration of war. Is that something that could plausibly play out well?

All respect to Ukrainians on the ground. And I understand why President Zelenskyy and activists like the one you spoke to are calling for this kind of measure because their country is at existential risk. But there is no difference. There's a distinction without a difference to say a no-fly zone for humanitarian purposes or for the purposes of making war on Russia. And the reason is that it's enforced the same way: shooting down Russian planes. So you can say what you're doing is trying to protect civilians. What you're actually going to be required to do to protect said civilians is to kill Russians. That's war on Russia.

You're talking about this very, very fine line that the U.S. is having to walk here in order to show support, but also not trigger further action from Russia. I mean, one thing that we did hear Biden commit to in his State of the Union address is sending troops to NATOs Eastern flank, right? To support NATO allies. What is that meant to accomplish and why draw the line there, very specifically and clearly?

So I thought that was maybe the most notable part of the entire State of the Union because what Biden is doing was a really smart thing that you do in a nuclear crisis called signaling. Because part of a nuclear crisis is not being able to understand the other side's intentions. You don't know what they're going to do, which forces you to take measures that may be perceived as threatening, right? So, when the U.S. sends troops near Russia, you can see why the Russians might be like, "Are they preparing for some kind of counterattack?" So what Biden is doing is not only explaining the deployment, but he's explaining the reasons behind it and laying out extremely clear red lines for how and when the U.S. would get involved in a conflict. And the NATO Alliance gives the clearest possible dividing line. Either you're in the Alliance or you're out of the Alliance.

You can hear my full conversation with Zack Beauchamp on this weekend's episode of "Apple News Today In Conversation."

So, depending on where you get your news, you might be getting a radically different version of what's happening in Ukraine. In Russia, state-controlled media does not refer to Russia's invasion as a war. No, instead it describes the more than 100,000 Russian troops who have entered Ukraine and the 40-mile convoy marching towards its capital as "a special military operation," as a way to defend Russia from Ukrainian threats.

This week, the European Union banned two of those state-sponsored media outlets from broadcasting in the EU. It called the spread of disinformation by state media a tool of the Kremlin in the assault on Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia is trying to ban the very few remaining independent media outlets left inside its country. This week, two of the major ones went dark: "TV Rain" and "Echo Moscow." Both received official notices for violating state standards for using the words "war," "invasion" and "aggression" when describing what's happening in Ukraine. Masha Gessen from "The New Yorker" was at the station the night "TV Rain" got a letter from the prosecutor general's office, demanding that its website be blocked.

Gessen describes how the station's editor-in-chief defiantly read that order on the air. And not long after, "TV Rain's" only security guard told journalists to leave the office because special forces were coming. The staffers took a set of back stairs and exited through a fire door. Outside the office, the editor-in-chief told his staff he planned to leave the country and he advised them to do the same.

Now, this ordered block doesn't technically mean that "TV Rain" can't post to its YouTube or social media channels. But there are employees who see this as the end. One told "The New Yorker" that he's getting out of Russia too.

The folks at "TV Rain," they have good reason to be fearful. In the past, Russian police have stormed the offices of media they don't agree with. People have been roughed up, sometimes detained or labeled as foreign agents.

On their last night of broadcasting, Gessen describes the staff there as dedicated, relentless, joking and tired. One of the co-founders of the station said the work allowed them to feel like, even in dark times, they were preserving something that felt real.

Finally, today is the start of the Paralympic Games. Now, because of this week's last-minute decision by the International Paralympic Committee, athletes from Russia and Belarus are not allowed to compete. But hundreds of other athletes from around the world will be competing across 78 events in Beijing.

One of them is American athlete Oksana Masters, who "NBC Sports" calls "the most decorated athlete on the U.S. roster." She'll be competing in cross-country skiing and a biathlon. And there's probably gonna be a lot of attention on her, not just because of how skilled she is, but also because Masters is originally from Ukraine.

The "Courier-Journal" brings us her backstory. Masters was born in Ukraine with severe birth defects because of the Chernobyl disaster. The effects of that caused serious damage to her legs and arms. She spent her early childhood in orphanages where she says she was abused. But when Masters was eight years old, she was adopted by an American and grew up living in Louisville, Kentucky. Before she entered high school, though, she had both her legs amputated.

This week, she posted on social media that her heart is breaking for her birth country, Ukraine. She wrote that one of her favorite parts of the Paralympic Games is competing beside the American and Ukrainian flags. She's still going to do that this year, but under the shadow of a war that's already claimed thousands of lives and forced a million people in her home country to flee.

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We'll be back again with the news on Monday.