Hey, folks, it is Monday, November third. It is election eve in five places, actually, but no matter where you are, if you're not in one of those five places, you damn sure better be paying attention to what happens tomorrow night. And with that, welcome to this election eve episode of Amy and TJ. Do you call it off year or odd year? Elections?
Off year is what I've always called it, Yes, and yeah, we've got two big off yr elections right near to us in New York and New Jersey. And man, have we been inundated with political ads?
I sometimes enjoy them, and they have been effective I think in this area. But yes, folks, it's it's hard is someone to get someone to think in Colorado or Texas or Detroit or wherever, why they need to care out who's elected mayor of New York or do they Is everyone paying as much attention as we think? We're inundated obviously because we're here, But even in news and news coverage, so much talk has been about this race.
Yeah, it's hard to separate us from the rest of the country in terms of our perspective, but this has obviously been a huge topic of conversation. The New York City mayor. In politics, Trump gets asked about it, and clearly there is going to be It would seem some sort of there will be ripple effects if Mom Donnie is elected, as most people believe he will be, in terms of how then the relationship. I mean, there is no relationship between Trump and Mom Donnie. But can that
relationship be used in the Republican's favor? I know that sounds crazy, But now if you've got a common enemy, and you've got somebody who you can call a communist, so you can call not a terrorists. I don't think he's gone that far, but certainly called him a communist. Now you've got something and someone to rally against.
Oh yeah, they've made clear that they don't necessarily mind, and he has spent so much. Trump a part of the brace here. But the five places, let's get to that. First of all, we have off year odd year elections. Why we do these states have their different reasons? I couldn't actually Robes come up with. I didn't realize it was only five.
I didn't either, I did not. I know midterm elections are a big deal. Obviously, we know that every two years after the presidential election. You usually see a sea change in Congress. A lot of times people rail against the current administration, and whoever was in power, it switches. So those are big, I catching, headline grabbing elections. I didn't realize an off year election. We're talking five states.
Just five on New Jersey, Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky. Now New Jersey start doing this in nineteen forty seven. I can't remember which party it was, but the president was so popular that they said, hey, we don't want that influence coming into.
Our probably the other party then, so yes.
It was. So they said, let's separate it so we don't have any national influence on our state elections. That kind of makes sense.
It makes total sense because most people go out to the polls in presidential elections, who wouldn't necessarily go out at a midtern and certainly not in an off your election. So that makes sense.
That does make sense, and it's kind of expensive to separate the two, so to do so means you're really sticking to it and you believe it. I didn't necessarily mind that. Now the other states, what do you see about them that you think they have in common Louisiana, Kentucky, Virginia, Mississippi, louis the Southern states. There are Southern states. Now. There are several trains of thought as to why they do it, and some go back to voter suppression in the Jim Crow era.
That also makes sense.
Some of these states did not want federal control of their election and they wanted their power, and so they wanted to keep their separate so they didn't have to have federal monitors. And this is around times of the Voting Rights Act was just in its infancy and those things. Now, Mississippi did this outright. They were blatant about theirs. There's some questions about the other states. But some historians will tell you this had something to do with several of
these states and why who. I did not know.
That makes a lot of sense. I did not know that, but that actually does read. So it's I'm sure it's true, even though I know it's slightly conjecture. That makes sense. Now New York City mayor, I actually I get confused as to how many years, Like obviously the president it's every four years, Senators every six years, members of Congress every four years, correct, and then mayors different is two years. It's two years senators, senators, six congressmen and women, two
governors four generally yes, generally all right. Presidents for mayors runs the gamut New York City mayor. It is tough to keep all the numbers together. But yes, we're up for New York City mayor. And this has been as contested as I can remember any race being. And we've lived here almost the same amount of time. I've been here for more than two decades. This has been an.
Extreme It's been a mess, just really with Mayor Adams. I mean just with scandal controversy. He was indicted, all right, the case got dropped.
So was our president.
Oh and again he won it, he lost it. He's all kinds of stuff, you know. But what I'm saying is it's been a mess here, and the mess of Mayor Adams gave way to the rise of Mom Donnie. In this election. Cuomo is in there, and look, it would be history first Muslim mayor of New York. At this point if he were not to win, everybody would call this one into question, have some funny business, because he has been well ahead double digits. Doesn't even say it like well into double digits or his lead.
He's been in double digits, and then when Eric Adams did drop out, that was tightened slightly. And really at this point, short of Curtis Sliwa, who is the third candidate, who's the Republican candidate, if he were to bout out, that would be the only reason why anybody I think would actually say this could be or it could go either way. Curtis Leiwa has been defiant. He is not. He even said if I got hit by a bus and died right now, my name would still be on
the ballot. That's how defiant he's been. You know, he's a man who means what he says and says what he means.
And there was something refreshing about him. But judging by all the polls, he does not have a chance to win this thing at all. So he hasn't dropped out given a support to Cuomo. So it looks like, Momdani, I mean, should be a cakewalk if you go buy the poll. So this is going to change what the city, the party is. It going to change the relationship with the White House.
The impact of the New York City mayoral race is significant this year for all of those reasons you just said, because the Democrats are looking for a leader. And now Democrats have had to choose whether or not to align themselves with Cuomo or to align themselves with Mom Donnie. And we've seen make people make very different choices for very different reasons.
They're going with the winner, with the front runner right now, and he has been well out ahead. But is this the direction, some would say, and some have said publicly yes. The idea of AOC Bernie Sanders and Mom Donnie standing on a stage holding hands together is exactly what every Republican wants to run against. There is no Democratic leader Newsom we were talking about earlier. He is. He is a a lot of peop will look at him, say he's the most visible Democrat right now, but he's not
necessarily the leader of the party. So this city, the most important, the biggest city in the country, they just handed the keys over to this guy.
It's interesting because I know you and I have been watching some of the coverage, even just with the volume down, the lines of people in New York City waiting to vote over the past couple of days. Early voting has been going on for a while. They say that so far. This is the latest thing from the New York Times. Seven hundred and thirty five thousand New Yorkers have voted early. That is four times as many as in the twenty twenty one contest. That just goes to show you and so, yes,
this is an off election year. It's not tied to any big referendum and certainly not anything presidential beyond that. So that is truly remarkable that it's gotten to that point where people feel like they're livelihoods at stake. There have been a lot of promises made by mom Donnie that he's going to make this city affordable, but at the expensive people who make a lot of money, And so you have people who run Wall Street saying they're going to run for the hills if this guy gets
elected in New York City. It's interesting to see what will happen, what the aftermath will be, if there will be a mass exodus of the rich leaving New York City. Will people change.
Good riddance, get him out of here, and someone cares.
But they need the tax dollars. That's the problem. That's the whole way he funds this and his agenda and his policy that he wants to put into place. You need the wealthy folks to foot the bill, so it'll be an interesting I mean, I'm fascinated by what's going to happen.
What a night though. If we're about we're on the verge of electing the first Muslim mayor of New York City, that's incredible. That should be celebrated. I think that is awesome. This is not a policy thing. This is where the city is, where we are now. I'll be damned. I'll be damned. Don't even know what could possibly be next. But mister mom Donnie, can you please tell some of your crazy the fans to stop coming by our window in the boat yelling and screaming, yes, scaring the hell out of us.
This happened? Was it yesterday? It was yesterday. It was kind of a nice day, so we had the windows open, and all of a sudden we heard screaming and shouting and like music, What is going on? We look out and it's a boat filled with Mom Donnie supporters having the time of their lives, racing down the Hudson screaming vote for Mom Donnie. They've never seen anything like that before.
But he has a crazed bunch and they haven't seen anything like him before, doing TikTok videos whatever. He's reached them the way he's reached them. They this is their guy. Hey, it is fascinating to see what happens now across the river. It's been my favorite race when in terms of political ads, the race for governor of New Jersey, which is a race Jack Chitarelli and Mickey Cheryl.
Yes, the Democrat statistically tied. Right.
Yeah, it's not supposed to be. She had an earlier lead, but this thing has gotten tight Titan as of late. And he has a habit of breaking late, does he not.
Yes.
In his last election he looked like he was out of it and closed the gap boom.
And so this is his third time attempting to become New Jersey's governor. The first time he didn't get out of the Republican primary. I think he came in second, but he he has come close. And you of you have called some of the advertising that we've been watching effective.
It has been. I mean, I don't know who did it, who needs to study it or whatever. I know it has been effective. In terms of me. I don't know anything about Mickey Cheryl but he has left an impression of her on me from one clip and one interview where she had a bad moment. And I know not to take this one moment and say that's who she is, but that's all I can see anything.
They keep playing it over and over again.
But it's it's only her in her own words. It's so effective.
He's not mean, he's not slinging mud, he's not calling her names, he's not saying how terrible she's going to be. He just lets her, for lack of a better term, hang herself. Yeah, it with her own words.
It's been effective. And of course we see and I don't know how many times a day, but it has been a fact. But the race has tightened. And this is a a left leaning state, of course, but kind of a purple governors mansion.
It's true. Republicans have won five out of the last ten gubernatorial racest Chris Christy obviously probably the most recently most famous Republican from New Jersey outspoken. But Trump only lost New Jersey by six percent last year. That is remarkable, and he only lost it by sixteen percent in twenty twenty. So there is a strong Republican foothold in that state for sure.
The other governor's race, keeping an eye on Virginia. This is history will be made no matter who.
This is a really cool race. Representative Abigail Spanberger and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears, two women vuying to become Virginia's first female governor. I think that's awesome. Also, I note that Lieutenant Governor wins Some Earl Sears is a republic is a Republican candidate, and she's black. So I thought that was really interesting to have those two choices. And certainly there will be first all around. In some former fashion, you.
Were going through the line, you're kind of doing a deep dive in Virginia. But it was it was so much diverse, yes, and candidates.
The lieutenant governor's race would be the it'd be the first openly gay man actually running against what would be the first Indian candidate to get lieutenant governor. And then the other race had another diversity. So I was like, wow, look at you New Jersey showing up doing some first Virginia. Oh my gosh, I said, New Jersey, Virginia. It's the end of a long day. Yes, Virginia but this is a state that has been a bill whether of presidential
elections as well. It's been purple. Sometimes it leans blue, sometimes it leans red. Obviously, when you're in northern Virginia near DC, it's very very much blue. But this is a state that has gone in either direction, and so this will be an interesting one.
They go the direction opposite the White House. I thought that was the greatest stat that eleven out of the past twelve governors of New Jersey belonged in Virginia.
Because you said New Jersey too.
There's only five states.
Saying this because I did the same thing. I don't know why, but yes, Virginia has been It's a really remarkable streak.
Yeah. Yeah, North Dakota is insane. Okay, we're a stick with Virginia. Point being here, whoever wins in Virginia has been from the opposite party of whoever is in the White House eleven out of the past twelve. So judging by that, the Democrat is going to win this and she is pretty hand Minnie the Poles.
Yes, Representative Abigail Spanberger, she's ahead quite quite a bit, Yeah, quite a bit, So that one isn't as close. And then well, please continue my life.
It's my fat I gave her a little signal that we were about to take a break, and she just she didn't want to keep rolling with it, so she just kind of stopped talking all together, which wasn't helpful either. But when we come back, we'll.
Get to showing them how the sausage is made.
And we come back, folks, why everybody's paying attention to what California is going to do tomorrow and what is happening in District eighteen in Texas the last two people who held that seat died. Stay here, welcome.
Back as we continue our conversation on the big day tomorrow. Off your LuFe might not sound like that big of a deal, but some of these are going to have sweeping impact on the country, And notably we are looking at what's happening in California because what's happening in California has also been happening in a few other states around this country and literally will have an impact on the makeup of Congress. And we all, I think, have learned in recent years how important that actually is.
Yeah, they set off California set off the redistricting race after Texas did what it did. Yeah, Governor Newsom got with the legislature out there and they passed legislation to change and redistrict to balance out what Texas did. Problem is, they have an independent commission out there in California. It's their job to actually redistrict, So they had to pass
legislation to put it before the voters. So the voters in California tomorrow are going to vote whether or not they want to redistrict in California, and the poll show this is going to win fairly easily. Yeah.
This is called Proposition fifty and this is about adding it would be five Democratic seats to the state of California to offset the five Republican seats that Texas was able to redistrict. And it's remarkable to know that they can just look at the demographics. They know exactly how to redraw the lines to get a higher percentage of whatever political affiliation you want based on where you live. It's kind of crazy.
I don't know those split anymore because if they go tip for tag with Texas, Several other states have done this, and there was one state that was only really picking up one seat. But I don't even know who has an advantage necessarily, I've.
Lost count to set. Yeah, but yes, so California that is, and that alone will bring folks out to the polls because this is of national significance.
The other one here that will end on is you don't really pay attention to District eighteen in Texas. Nobody anywhere else who gives the damn about District eighteen. But if we explain it, this is the one where Sheila Jackson Lee spent so much time and everybody's familiar with her, but she passed away last year. But this is her seat for Robes, they have been without representation in four years, for essentially a year because their last two reps died.
That's I mean, just so sad and unfortunate the timing of it, but just in general, I didn't realize that Shila Jackson Lee held that seat YEP for almost thirty years, twenty nine years. It was from nineteen ninety five to twenty twenty four. She died in March of twenty twenty four. She had that seat for twenty nine years, So they had so much stability in that district for so long.
You know, no matter what you think about her politics, you have to give her credit for fighting for her state. She was always reprisen in Texas and up in Houston. Give her credit for that, God rest of saw. But yeah, she passed in March of twenty twenty four, left the seat open.
You don't know a lot of congressmen and women's names, like we know a lot of Senators because they're two from each date and so you get to know them, and they tend to just be more prominent, right in the sense they're there for six years, so you you know who they are. You don't often know the names of congressmen and women unless they're leaders, unless they're like
majority with or minority whatever. So it's interesting that you know her name or you remembered her name because she was such a president, such a force for so long.
That's a good point. Most members of Congress are not household name. Yes, Sheila Jackson Lane absolutely was.
Yes, And yes so Vester Turner. He he died in March of this year.
He was a Houston mayor.
But but it was just after.
Speech, the speech from twenty four. It wasn't the State of the Union, it was he addressed both he had just Congress, Yes, after Trump. It was that night that was so freaky.
That was so free Here is so sixteen candidates are on the ballot. Clearly no one is going to get the majority with that many candidates.
So that means they're going to still be without representation until I believe it's January of next year when they have a special election. Just timing wise, that's it. But that district to have so much stability and then have back to back and he was a long time sevest return, a long time mayor of Houston, just was known so well.
Everyone knew his name, everyone knew who he was. And so when you have sixteen unknowns, basically ain't one of them going to get fifty one percent?
Not even close run off and they will once again, it will be almost two years. I mean semester Turney was there, but only barely a month or so before he passed, so they really haven't had representation in nearly two years.
It'll ultimately be I don't want to put you on the spot, but I was curious, do you know basically the run off do they pick the top three candidates? How do they top two candidates? That's I actually just looked it up and answered my own question.
Well, anybody got fifty one to be over, but I don't think they have a stand out that they expect for that. But yeah, folks, that's just a preview, I know. Uh. Look, there's a lot on TV and people talking about a lot of these races, but they're interesting for different reasons. They have little nuggets there we thought were interesting. But it's still worth paying attention to.
It, I think so. And I think a lot of times we cast off or we don't give local elections the credit they deserve. But truly and so often what you do, the taxes you pay, the facilities you have, the school system you send your children to, is often determined by local officials. And so yes, we don't usually have as high of a turnout on some of these off year elections, but man, are they important very much.
So so I was no, no, as you said that, I was. I made a face because I was trying to think of where our posing station was.
That's what I have to look it up DMV, Right, they tell you where to go. I'm pretty sure that's what we just moved. So that's why we're a little confused. We should probably know before now that we should probably figure it out.
All right, folks, we always appreciate you hanging with us. For now, I'm TJ. Holmes, just on behalf of Amy Roebuck. Talk to y'all soon.