ABC Listen. Podcasts, radio, news, music and more. Good morning. Welcome to AEM. It's Thursday the 1st of May. I'm Sabra Lane coming to you from Nippaluna, Hobart. With just three days of campaigning left, the Coalition will unveil its policy costings later today. Its promising budget deficits during the next four years will be at least $10 billion better off than Labor's.
Jacob Greber is the ABC's Chief Digital Political Correspondent. Jacob, you have some of the details, but not all of it. The main point is that the Coalition's promising deficits won't be as big. That's right. They are saying that it would be at least $10 billion. smaller, the deficits, over four years, the next four years, compared to labor. And labor is currently projecting deficits of about $150 billion.
So at least $10 billion lower than that. They're saying a low double-digit number. They're also saying that they would trim... gross debt four years from now, so in 2028-29, by $40 billion. Remember the government's projections, the nation's projections. for that figure is to hit $1.22 trillion. So it'll be $40 billion less under the coalition. In context, is that much as Australia's economic output is about 1.7 trillion a year?
I think you'd call it trimming at the sort of gross debt level because the pile is very, very large. Now, the coalition's lowering that number, it will say, because it's getting rid of some of these off-budget Some of these things like, for instance, rewiring Australia, which is a...
a big debt-funded program to build more transmission, to connect all the renewables energy projects around the country. They won't be doing that, they say, because in their view, nuclear does not require as much power lines. And so they see a saving there. They don't see the need to borrow quite as much money. So there's a whole bunch of things like that where they're finding savings.
the numbers that we all focus on on budget day, that's sort of coming down a little bit, not a great deal. And that's because the coalition has made its own big list of promises during this election campaign, at least $48 billion. That includes things like defence, the fuel excise relief, there's that temporary low and middle income tax offset. There's also the Medicare bulk billing promise where they match.
So they've got quite a big chunk of promises that they have had to go and find savings for. And they're doing that via other things, such as smaller public service. and various other sort of things. You mentioned nuclear. Are we expecting the cost of that policy to be included? That's going to be interesting because nuclear is really more of a long burn. The real expensive nuclear is well beyond the budget forwards.
is really more in the 2030s. And that's probably on the most optimistic sort of timeline. Experts tell us, including the CSIRO, that This is unlikely to become a reality until the sort of late 2030s, 2040s. So that sort of big expense doesn't really appear on the budget for quite some time.
Under both major parties, deficits continue for some time. It used to be that promising surpluses and showing how that would credibly happen were a big part of the campaign pitch. Not so much anymore, should it be? Well, I think that's the dramatic change this election cycle from previous ones. If you think back to the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd...
Labor government. Under Wayne Swan, they went to great efforts to get back to surpluses. They made pretty tough spending decisions, they curbed their sort of ambitions around various policies. in a bid to get back to surpluses that turned out to actually be very hard to reach, and that was because commodity prices. didn't help them out, if you recall back around 2012. We're in a situation here where we've just had a couple of years of very, very strong commodity prices.
that's really been a big tailwind for the budget. A lot of money's come in, but it's also gone back out. And extraordinarily, despite... Those two surpluses that Labor likes to point to, a great part of those were actually helped by that big tailwind from foreigners buying our iron ore and coal and gas. essentially driving those big surpluses.
That's gone away. We've booked in a lot of extra spending. Both sides have done that, in essence, and now we have a structural deficit that really sees us in deficit. according to the most recent calculations, for most of the next 10 years. So that is quite an extraordinary change.
You mentioned so-called off-budget spending. Both the major parties are putting big, expensive programs off the budget, so they're not included in the four-year budget cycle. But the cost of those plans are included on the nation's credit card without debt. Should we be talking more about that? As you say, they come off the headline dead.
But it's real money. It's borrowed. We pay the interest on it. And the concept is that the return from those investments has to be greater than the interest we pay as a country. And that's where the rub is. How successful or how effective are these investments? And because they're such long-term investments, it gets very murky. That question disappears into the sort of daily tumults of life and we don't ever really get to see.
Is the NBN a good investment? Is the inland rail a good investment? Is the hydro, the snowy hydro, a good investment? And will nuclear be a good investment? All of these things are sitting in these funds. And we're sort of expected to accept that, yeah, well, that's all money well deployed. And that's the question voters should be thinking about. That's the ABC's Chief Digital Political Correspondent, Jacob Greber.
Cost of living has been the number one issue during the federal election and yesterday's steady inflation reading no doubt is a welcome development for the Albanese government. in the final days of the campaign. It also means an interest rate cut is more likely when the Reserve Bank board meets later this month. Angus Randall reports. On the streets of Joondalup, in WA's most marginal seat of Moore, cost of living is never far from voters' minds.
You walk around Jindalup, I don't know how many homeless people we see here and they don't even look like they're homeless and I just don't know why they're out of their houses. Yeah, it's definitely a pinch. You definitely notice, yeah, like shopping and cost of living and you're almost always waiting to see that.
next Reserve Bank decision almost. It's like, oh, is that going to make or break, you know? For the first time since 2021, the Reserve Bank's preferred measure of inflation is within its target range at just under 3%. Dr John Hawkins is a senior lecturer in economics at the University of Canberra. Most people think that interest rates will be cut at the next meeting and then probably another one or two times.
So the latest inflation figures are good news for those paying off a mortgage and hoping for a rate cut. But Dr John Simon from Macquarie University and the former head of economic research at the Reserve Bank warns global headwinds remain. Uncertainty is paralysing and a small interest rate cut really can't overcome that.
That's why you need to have a different playbook in that environment. It's about going to be giving confidence to Australian businesses and Australian workers in a very uncertain environment. And that is... A very different style of policy than stimulating the economy or lowering interest rates or whatever it might be. Even so, Dr Hawkins says Australia should be somewhat shielded from one major aspect. the U.S. President's tariff war. Trump's tariffs are going to push up inflation in the U.S.
Both sides of politics here though say that they're not going to retaliate with higher tariffs, so that won't push up inflation here. And if anything, it might push inflation down a little bit because... A trade war is bad for the global economy, so the global economy would be weaker. and that would tend to reduce inflationary pressures. Labor is talking up the latest inflation figures and predicted May interest rate cut as signs of good economic management.
But in the WA seat of Moore, these voters have already made up their minds. on who they trust to ease their financial pressure. I think the runs are on the board for the current government. I do believe that. I think change is good sometimes. I think people get complacent. Liberal protects.
people who already have foundation, whereas Greens and Labor are looking out for the people for the future. I listen to this stuff where I hear Peter Dutton telling me... what good economic managers the Liberal Party is and I don't think they've had a good economic manager since John Howard. Voters in the marginal West Australian seat of Moore, Angus Randall and Isabel Massali reporting there.
Amid a jump in insolvency, small businesses say it's harder than ever to make a profit, but none of the political parties are... enough to turn things around. They're calling for a 5% tax cut for companies employing fewer than 20 people, as Annie Guest reports. Is this for the US stockist? Yep. For most of her 25 years manufacturing skincare, Sharon McGlinchey found work satisfying. But that's changed.
The enjoyment that was always there for me has been superseded now by the constant pressure and stress. of surviving week to week. Sharon McGlinchey employs nine people at her North Sydney factory, but she's buckling under higher energy, freight, insurance and other costs. The difference since COVID is around anywhere from 10 to up to 25% increases in the costs of certain things. we put the prices up around 3%. And if we put them up by much more than that,
it would become out of reach. Do you agree that that's the behaviour that would be demonstrated? Melbourne businesswoman Ros Batson agrees, as she runs a consulting firm, helping companies improve their culture and leadership. Yeah, certainly very proud of... running a business for 25 years and as a lot of people joke, also still remaining married while running a business with my husband. But they're also facing rising costs.
that Ros Batson says can't be passed on to customers. Like the GFC passed, COVID passed. This feels like it's much more here to stay and, yeah, very concerned for what that means for us as a small business. The Small Business Council's Luke Arktastruck warns These concerns are widespread. We've got decade high insolvencies and a lot of small businesses simply handing the keys back in because it's no longer viable for them.
to remain in business. We really need some dramatic action to turn around the momentum in the small business sector. Labor is pointing to its existing cross-jurisdictional small business strategy. along with election promises including $150 energy rebates and extending tax breaks on $20,000 worth of business equipment for another 12 months.
The LNP has promised to increase these instant asset write-offs to $30,000 and make them permanent. It's also pledging tax breaks for meal expenses, technology upgrades and to help small start-ups reinvest. None of this wins over skincare manufacturer Sharon McGlinchley, previously a Labor supporter, nor business consultant Ros Batson. I'm a swinging voter, 100%. Yeah, I make up my mind based on...
the election campaign, what the promises are. And so where does that leave you then? Where will you park your vote? I still am undecided. Fortunately in my electorate I do also have an independent that I can consider. Lukak de Straat says Australia's 2.6 million small business operators need a lower tax rate.
We're calling for a reduction in the company tax rate for small businesses, which is a business with a turnover of up to $20 million a year. That rate would be slashed from 25% tax rate to 20% tax rate. So a 5% cut. the small businesses turning over up to $20 million a year. And he wants governments to lighten their workload. Look, red tape reduction needs to be a core focus of any incoming government. Small businesses tell us they're spending up to 15 hours per week.
on paperwork, compliance and bureaucracy. Companies employing fewer than 20 people make up 97% of all Australian businesses. But Luke Uchtestrat says without such help, more could fail. Annie Guest reporting. Tensions between India and Pakistan are rising following a deadly militant attack in Kashmir. There have been skirmishes along the line of control, diplomatic ties are fraying, and hundreds of citizens have been ordered to return to their home countries, leaving families divided.
South Asia correspondent Meghna Bali reports from the Atariwaga crossing. It's a border usually known for parades and patriotic fanfare. But this week, the Attariwaga crossing has become a site of heartbreak. Only a few steps separate India from Pakistan here. but for 30 year old Sana that distance now feels like a world apart. I was stopped at the border and told no Indian is permitted to cross. Sana is an Indian citizen.
In 2020, she moved to Pakistan after marriage, but a few weeks ago she returned to India with her toddler and baby to visit her parents. Then, gunmen launched a deadly assault in Indian-controlled Kashmir, killing 26 tourists. India blamed Pakistan for the attack. Pakistan has denied it and believes India could be preparing for a military strike.
which will have catastrophic consequences for the complete region and beyond. In a tit for tat diplomatic breakdown, both countries revoked visas and ordered citizens to leave. Sana's children, Pakistani nationals, were technically allowed to return, but she wasn't. I was thinking the kids shouldn't be separated from me. I have small kids. They can't live without me. Border officials, she says, took pity.
they let the children stay, but no one knows for how long. Officials say around 800 Pakistani nationals left India this week. 1400 Indians were sent back from across the border. The return was heart-wrenching. Shahbaz Malik's Pakistani wife had her visa for India approved six days ago. and is now back in Pakistan.
What's his fault? He's been separated from his mother. What's my fault? At the border, some families are still waiting, clinging to hope or simply refusing to leave. They don't let my daughter cross. we will take the kids back with us too. Whatever happens, we will face it. Those who don't leave could face up to three years in jail. We couldn't leave India with the same happiness we came with.
Now I feel we shouldn't have come at all. As India and Pakistan trade accusations, ordinary families bear the cost. This is Magna Bali reporting for AM. It's late in the election campaign, but the Greens have just officially launched theirs in Melbourne last night. The minor party is feeling confident ahead of Saturday's vote. He's hoping to win more seats, but polling experts say it could be a mixed bag for the party on election night. Alison Schauer reports from Parliament House.
At a packed pub in Melbourne, The mood is jubilant. Can I say, Greens, women, rock! Deputy Leader of the Greens, Maureen Faruqi, warming up the crowd of Party Faithful. Are you all ready to smash the two-party status quo? Are you ready? The minor party had its best ever success at the 2022 election, winning four seats in federal parliament.
And it's hungry for more. In just a few short days, we could be on the verge of electing the most progressive parliament that this country has ever seen. Greens leader Adam Band struck a confident tone, reaffirming the party's many priorities. from housing reform to dental and Medicare, universal childcare, wiping student debt, banning native logging and ending new coal and gas projects.
election campaigns should be about reaching for the stars, like laying out a vision of how in this wealthy country of ours we can set ourselves up for the future. The party's ideal scenario is holding the balance of power in a minority Labor government. The Prime Minister has repeatedly ruled out doing a deal with the Greens, while the opposition leader has been emphasising the possibility of what he calls a Labor-Greens government.
The Greens have been busy politically sandbagging the three Queensland seats. picked up in the 2022 so-called green slide. And Adam Band is also eyeing off the seats of McNamara and Wills in Victoria and Richmond in New South Wales. The experts are saying that at this election, it could be as high as 40% of people are saying that they don't want the major parties anymore. But polling analyst Ben Rowey says that would be an extreme result.
He says the national vote for the Greens looks steady, but retaining its four seats isn't guaranteed. The specific seats where the Greens have a chance of winning, it's really not got that much to do with the national vote. It's really about how the vote is concentrated.
Sometimes it's also about how the vote for the other parties are divided. Ben Rowey says the party could be on track to pick up more seats or just as easily lose them. There's a couple of seats they currently hold that they could lose and there's other seats that... They didn't win in the last election, but they look really close to winning.
There's a wide range of possible outcomes for the Greens. As for the likelihood of the party's ambitious policy platform coming to fruition if Labor governs in minority, Ben Rowey says it's a wait and see. You know, it's not strictly leverage in the sense that... I don't think the Greens have the ability to say, we're going to kick you out of power.
But I do think they still have the ability to put public pressure on Labor, to put out their message and to use their platform. And that platform will be much more prominent if there's a hung parliament. That's polling analyst Ben Rowey, ending that report by Alison Schauer. That's AM for today. Thanks for your company. I'm Sabra Lane.
Hello, it's Sam Hawley here, host of the ABC News Daily podcast. We're now in the dying days of the election campaign, with polls suggesting Anthony Albanese will be returned as Prime Minister. Today, political editor for the ABC 7.30 program, Laura Tingle, on how the campaign has unfolded and why it hasn't gone Peter Dutton's way.