The government’s fiscal policy since the pandemic began has prioritised growth and fiscal transparency over fiscal consolidation. The Budget 2022 presented by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman just did that. However, macro risks of executing the budget proposals remain a key concern among investors. The Union Budget 2022 indicated not only is the government likely to miss the FY22 fiscal deficit target but the target for FY23 is also pegged at a relatively high 6.4% of GDP. The difference is l...
Feb 03, 2022•24 min•Ep. 102
While 2021 was all about growth and recovery, the focus of central bankers across the world has shifted towards inflation and monetary policy normalization given the context of US Fed Tapering and potential hardening of interest rates in 2022. So, will these worries amid rising Omicron variant of covid cases derail equities rally going ahead. To discuss that I am in conversation with Unmesh Kulkarni – Managing Director Senior Advisor, Julius Baer India.
Jan 06, 2022•22 min•Ep. 101
Indian equities are ending 2021 with over 20% gains outperforming other peers in emerging markets. Despite the brutal second wave of covid and rising inflation, markets hit record highs multiple times during the year led by factors such as decline in covid cases in the second half of the year, a significant pickup in the pace of vaccination, and the consequent sharp recovery in economic activity. But now, as we head into 2022, the world’s major central banks have started prioritizing inflation c...
Dec 30, 2021•27 min•Ep. 100
The real estate sector made a smart recovery despite the pandemic in 2021 with segments like residential outperforming. After facing a series of structural reforms like demonetisation, GST and RERA during the last decade, the pandemic was another blow for the real estate sector. But the sector is gradually emerging. The disruption caused by the pandemic is slowing settling. So, what will be the big trends in the real estate sector in 2022? Will home prices correct in 2022? To discuss that I am i...
Dec 16, 2021•20 min•Ep. 99
Markets have entered into an extremely volatile phase. The Nifty ended its six-month winning streak in November, ending 4% lower, pulling back 8% from the record highs of October. Much of the market anxiety is led by global factors but a big fundraise in the primary market also had put some pressure on liquidity. While economic activities are gradually picking up, the threat of a new covid 19 variant Omicron has emerged. So amid these mixed signals and volatility, which way will markets swing. T...
Dec 09, 2021•23 min•Ep. 98
As Indian markets have seen a robust increase in trading volume with equities hitting record high multiple times post-pandemic, brokerage firms have made great business. Bank-brokerages reported a strong uptick in earnings in the last fiscal but The retail broking segment has seen a significant disruption in the last few years due to the growing prominence of discount brokerages. So, how have competitively priced offerings of discount brokers and the no-frill basic accounts and services resulted...
Dec 02, 2021•14 min•Ep. 97
Do you know modern technology and mathematical computations can make trading decision for profit by breaking down very complex data and eliminating the emotional decision-making that can occur during trading. That’s called Quantitative trading or quant strategy of trading. Quantitative traders take a trading technique and create a model of it using mathematics, and then they develop a computer program that applies the model to historical market data. The model is then backtested and optimized. Q...
Nov 18, 2021•24 min•Ep. 96
Post pandemic, re-rating of real estate stocks has surprised markets as Nifty Realty index has outperformed the midcaps by more than 60% in the past year. The pandemic played a catalyst in accelerating market share gains into the hands of organised real estate players. Boosted by economic recovery and robust stock market wealth creation, the top eight cities in India are seeing a strong growth momentum in real estate sector. So, how did the festive season pane out for real estate companies? What...
Nov 11, 2021•20 min•Ep. 95
Mint and HT Smartcast wish all our listeners a happy Diwali and a prosperous New Year. Markets have ended the year Samvat 2077 with best gains in 13 years despite covid led lockdowns and uncertainties which had deterred economic growth. Riding on abundant liquidity, investors made nearly 40% profit in equities this year, the best returns compared to other asset classes. In comparison, mid and smallcaps have done exceedingly well in Samvat 2077. BSE Midcap surged 61% while BSE SmallCap jumped 79%...
Nov 04, 2021•24 min•Ep. 94
Global analysts are raising red flags on India’s equity performance. They are gradually becoming uncomfortable about steep valuations and hence are cautious about the allocation of funds despite India outperforming global peers in 2021 so far. Recently, a BofA survey showed global fund managers are no longer bullish on emerging markets and want to cut exposure in EMs in the next 12 months as China fears weighed on sentiment. So, are Indian markets ahead of fundamentals? How will it impact liquid...
Oct 28, 2021•20 min•Ep. 93
Investors are eagerly watching company results to see whether earnings growth justifies share-price gains during the sizzling stock-market rally this year. Companies are facing rising investor expectations going into the second-quarter earnings season as the Indian markets have outperformed global peers, with valuations near historic highs. However, the market faces possible headwinds from rising commodity and energy prices, global supply-side disruption, and potentially unfavourable bond-equity...
Oct 21, 2021•22 min•Ep. 92
In what is being perceived as a tapering signal, the RBI suspended the bond purchase programme, G-Sec Acquisition Program (G-SAP), after Rs 2.37 trillion purchases in first half of FY22. The monetary policy committee (MPC) kept its policy rates and accommodative stance unchanged but did not announce any new set of liquidity-enhancing measures for the first time since the onset of the covid-19 pandemic. With surplus liquidity of above $120bn sloshing around in the system, the RBI also announced a...
Oct 14, 2021•21 min•Ep. 91
Riding widespread optimism, Indian markets have been scaling fresh record highs as the Sensex hit 60000. Indian markets have been rising in most days of September despite periodic nervousness around China’s Evergrande debt defaults cascading to a global crisis and US Federal Reserve rate tapering decision. However, investors are concerned. Rising inflation risk and withdrawal of ultra-easy monetary policy by global central banks, mainly by the US Federal Reserve, may trigger a sharp rise in bond...
Sep 30, 2021•24 min•Ep. 90
What if I tell you: Shell companies with no commercial operations are formed to raise capital through an IPO for acquiring an existing company. What if I also tell you that even retail investors can invest in these blank cheque companies. Well, I am talking about Special Purpose Acquisition Company shortly called as SPAC. SPACs have been around in the US for a very long time but SPAC deals in India are still at a nascent stage becoming popular recently mostly due to abundant dry powder post covi...
Sep 23, 2021•22 min•Ep. 89
As stock markets beat the pandemic blues, investor wealth ballooned in a period when most businesses were struggling due to challenges posed by lockdowns amid loss of income. With limited options to spend due to no travel and stay-at-home guidelines, a gush of fresh money found its way to stock markets in the last one and half years. Many rode on the tailcoats of investors who were established and known for making a fortune by investing in stock markets. High net-worth individuals (HNIs) held a ...
Sep 16, 2021•17 min•Ep. 88
Corporate earnings in first-quarter showed skewed growth in select sectors. Companies benefited from low base, posting better earnings in Q1 compared to last year but sequentially earnings showed contraction as margin pressure intensified with high input prices and reversal of cost rationalisation measures. So, will earnings momentum continue in FY22. To understand that Mint's Nasrin Sultana is in conversation with SP Prabhu, CIO, Ageas Federal Life Insurance.
Sep 02, 2021•22 min•Ep. 87
Despite the stock markets hitting record highs this year, some investors have turned cautious on equities. In fact, BofA Securities have warned that a correction is likely in the near term. Analysis of past bull and bear phases of Indian stock markets show after a rally of about 75 weeks with an average 106% return, markets typically correct about 30% over a four-month period. Considering that the current rally in Indian equities yielded 118% returns over 73 weeks, BofA Securities sees limited f...
Aug 26, 2021•18 min•Ep. 86
Although 2021 showed a promising start, new variants are leading to renewed covid19 waves and lockdowns in many Asian countries. Still, equity markets continue to surge, while in India, markets have been hitting record highs. As stock consistently makes new life highs defying elevated valuations, net inflows into equity mutual fund schemes galloped to record high in July, rising almost six times in a month. Net Rs 20,742.77 crore was pumped into equity schemes in July, a 350% jump from the previ...
Aug 19, 2021•18 min•Ep. 85
While fresh slippage has spiked across banks, sluggish disbursements have further resulted in muted trends in loan growth, particularly in Retail showed an analysis of June quarter results. Although, deposit growth remains healthy, NII growth has been subdued. Banks are carrying additional provision buffers post June quarter. Adding to that, two big-ticket lendings Future Group and Vodafone Idea are threatening to put the banking eco system in jeopardy. So, now what is the outlook for banks and ...
Aug 12, 2021•15 min•Ep. 84
1QFY22 has been one of the best quarterly performances by Indian IT services companies, with sequential revenue growth of 4.5% in dollar terms. Mid-tier IT companies have reported the highest ever growth during the quarter. There were strong deal wins, with one of the highest ever pipelines while there has been an increase in guidance from some of the IT companies. However, increasing supply pressures remained elevated in the June quarter. So, how will it pan out for IT in the fiscal ahead? Will...
Aug 05, 2021•14 min•Ep. 83
Indian companies raised over Rs 27000 crore through initial public offerings (IPOs) this year, the highest in at least a decade compared to six months of previous years, driven by gushing liquidity in capital markets and investor euphoria. Favourable market conditions have made it attractive for companies to raise equity capital at relatively higher valuations, and many companies have taken advantage of the situation. The question is how long will this euphoria last? And will the IPOs suck liqui...
Jul 22, 2021•16 min•Ep. 82
Oil prices climbed to $77.16 a barrel last week, its highest in nearly three years, as a result of a deadlock over the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE’s) production quota. Even as the spread of coronavirus variants and unequal access to vaccines threaten the global economic recovery, crude oil prices remain critical for many importing countries like India. So, how does rise in crude prices impact Indian markets and economy? And overall, will rise in crude prices shrink margins of Indian companies? To...
Jul 15, 2021•22 min•Ep. 81
Indian companies are racing to adopt environmental, social, and governance norms on rising pressure from investors and regulators. Wave of ESG focussed funds have hit India too. Domestic ESG funds AUM was at Rs 9800 crore in FY2021 with seven of 10 such funds launching post-June last year. Are companies that have missed opportunities due to lack of ESG norms now catching up quickly. Has the pandemic also added urgency for companies to become ESG complaint to attract investors. To discuss that I ...
Jul 08, 2021•17 min•Ep. 80
The pandemic crisis deteriorating in India especially in the last few months and delayed economic recovery due to localised lockdowns had very little impact on equities. Investors continued to pump money into equities, making it the best performing asset class in the first six months of 2021. However, with the V-shaped recovery in global economy, inflation fears as reflected in surging commodity prices have resurfaced. Will the Federal Reserve take its foot off the pedal and taper its stimulus p...
Jul 01, 2021•19 min•Ep. 79
The US Federal Reserve's hint at raising interest rates by 2023 is feared to derail Indian markets rally with foreign flow getting drained out of emerging markets. The US central bank’s hawkish comments last week send markets worldwide in a sell-off mode. Federal Reserve officials held interest rates near zero but stunned investors by signaling it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed, sending yields and the dollar sharply higher. So, what are the implications of the Fed’...
Jun 24, 2021•17 min•Ep. 78
Domestic mutual funds are increasing their holdings in banks despite fears of bad loans amid the turbulence caused by pandemic. However, March quarter earnings of banks suggest that concerns over asset quality are less worrisome and second covid wave impact is likely to be manageable. As the corporate cycle seems to be clearly turning which banks are expected to benefit from it. Are banks a safe bet now? To discuss that Mint's Nasrin Sultana is joined by Amit Premchandani, Fund Manager (Equity) ...
Jun 17, 2021•21 min•Ep. 76
In the last monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India left key interest rates unchanged as widely expected. The monetary policy stance remains accommodative, and the tone is explicitly dovish. It is quite evident that growth remains the policy priority for the central bank. The RBI has also reiterated its stance of keeping liquidity ample and borrowing costs low. The question is in order to ensure a faster recovery do we require more support from fiscal authorities? RBI has ensured that ...
Jun 10, 2021•20 min•Ep. 75
The economy contracted by 7.3% in FY21, its first contraction in four decades. India’s real GDP grew 1.6% in March quarter. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, improved to 5-quarter high in March quarter. GDP for FY21 and fourth quarter indicated that unlocking of business operations drove economic growth for two quarters, confirming growth momentum had started to build in since July. Also, India’s fiscal deficit for FY21 was lower than the revised estimate by governme...
Jun 03, 2021•22 min•Ep. 74
Market valuation of all listed firms on the BSE touched $3 trillion for the first time, led by gains in smaller stocks. With small and midcap stocks outperforming benchmarks, investors seem to be shifting to the riskier segment. How risky is this bet and how long are these stocks likely to rally. To understand that Mint’s Nasrin Sultana is joined by Nimesh Chandan, Head of Investment (Equities), Canara Robeco.
May 27, 2021•22 min•Ep. 73
Despite the challenges due to covid, biggest rich Indians have seen an increase in wealth. A stock markets boom, driven partly by quantitative easing, and flurry of new listings have created wealth for some, much more than perhaps could have been expected in a year so badly disrupted by covid. To understand, where is the hot money flowing? And what are the newfound assets by emerging rich Indians post covid, Mint's Nasrin Sultana is in conversation with Satheesh Krishnamurthy, EVP, Head-Private ...
May 20, 2021•24 min•Ep. 72
