AIA Economic Base Case For 2023. AIA Weekly Update 2-18-23

I give my base case for the economy and what I am looking at for the rest of the year. I caveat this by reiterating that I am not an economist. I am looking at data points that in the past have led to certain outcomes. Notably a recession.   

However, keep in my mind that as new information comes in I may change my forecast and that forces me to change course with various investments. Again this is not investment advice.