Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's election dissection, your election analysis for Across the Circus. I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are. So we had a busy last couple weeks as you may know, a lot of primary elections going on throughout the country. The next major statewide primary is in Arizona and that's not going to be until July 30th. So we won't be having much statewide primary news from then.
There is a special election coming up in New Jersey which we will talk about in a couple weeks time. However, today is a very special edition of Driscoll's election dissection because I'm trying something that I've never tried before and if all goes well, we might do it again eventually. Today, we're packing our bags and we're heading international.
Yes, we're going to be talking about a major general election coming up that could potentially change the land's politics for years and years to come. And as we have a very close relationship with them here in the United States, it can mean important things for us too. Although ironically, this election is taking place on the day our country got independence from them. Yes, we're heading to the United Kingdom.
The amalgamation of four countries, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales as they elect the lower house of their parliament, the House of Commons. Now I do have some help here thanks to some articles from the Associated Press and Sky News. Well, because I don't live in the United Kingdom so I don't really know their politics that well. So here's what's going on. There is a general election set to take place on July 4th.
Now according to the country's rules, general elections for the parliament seats cannot be more than five years apart. However, the prime minister can choose when to have an election basically at their discretion. It could be two years, it could be five years, it could be six months. It truly is up to them. Now this election could have taken place as far as the autumn, however, it will be taking place during the summer, a little bit before the term is scheduled to end.
Now unlike here in the United States where we have a head of state and a head of government in one individual, that being the president, England has a separate head of state, that being the monarch, in this case King Charles III, and a head of government, in this case being the prime minister, in this case being currently Rishi Sunak. So there are 650 seats in the House of Commons, or as they like to call them constituencies, and the party with a majority basically commands the house.
If they have less than a majority, they call that a hung parliament and sometimes they have to form a coalition with another party or just try to govern without a majority. Basically the party with the most seats, their leader will be the new prime minister. Now the United Kingdom is seen as a multi-party state where there are numerous political parties that have a say in daily politics.
However, like most multi-party states, there are two major parties that virtually take all of the major government decisions, those being the center-right conservative party, or the Tories as they like to be called, which is led by current prime minister Rishi Sunak, and the labor party on the center left, currently led by Keir Starmer. Now the conservatives have had control for a while now, since 2010. In the last election, back in 2019, they expanded their majority by a good chunk.
Now a lot has happened since the last election, including the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, a global crisis in COVID-19, and the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, and the start of the reign of King Charles III. Now Boris Johnson was the prime minister at the time of the 2019 election. Since then he resigned and was replaced by Liz Truss, and after a month and a half, she resigned and was replaced by Rishi Sunak. So yes, a lot has happened. But let's get to the basics real.
There are 650 seats in the House, and each party nominates a local candidate, and it's a first-past-the-post election, meaning whoever has the most votes, regardless of a majority, wins. And there seem to be a lot of issues heading into this election, the economy, immigration, housing, healthcare, which is very similar to a lot of issues that we are having in our presidential election when you think about it. So there have been a lot of polls for this general election.
This is according to a website called electoralcalculus.co.uk. So at the time of the last general election, the Conservative Party won 376 seats, and the Labour Party won 197 seats. And they've been taking polls and putting them together and making a prediction. And according to this, just a couple days before the election, the website electoralcalculus predicts that the Labour Party will win 465 seats, and the Conservative Party will win 65 seats.
And that does include a major third party known as the Liberal Democrats, winning 71 seats, more than the Conservative Party. There are a few other small parties here.
The Reform Party, which was made from some ex-Conservatives, have 6 seats, the Green Party, kind of similar to the Green Party here in the US, having 3 seats, and a few local parties here and there, including the Scottish National Party, having 18 seats, which prays for Scottish nationalism, for Scotland to secede from the United Kingdom and become its own country.
So things are looking pretty good for the Labour Party at the moment, seeing a landslide much similar to one they had in 1997 under the leadership of Tony Blair, who ended up becoming a major figure in British politics. However, as I say on my show, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. And we'll just have to wait and see. So even if you do live here in the United States, pay attention to this election.
And if we do have some friends out there in the United Kingdom that are listening, I will say this, as I always say on my show, I don't care who you vote for, but I do care that you vote. So please do. Thank you for listening to Driscoll's Election Dissection. If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. Thank you all for listening, and I'll see you all very soon.
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