Where We Are in the AI Cycle

In this episode of ‘This Week in Consumer’, a16z General Partners Anish Acharya and Erik Torenberg are joined by Steven Sinofsky - Board Partner at a16z and former President of Microsoft’s Windows division - for a deep dive on how today’s AI moment mirrors (and diverges from) past computing transitions.

They explore whether we’re at the “Windows 3.1” stage of AI or still in the earliest innings, why consumer adoption is outpacing developer readiness, and how frameworks like partial autonomy, jagged intelligence, and “vibe coding” are shaping what gets built next. They also dig into where the real bottlenecks lie, not in the tech, but in how companies, products, and people work.

Resources: 

Find Anish on X: https://x.com/illscience

Find Steven on X: https://x.com/stevesi

Watch Andrej Karpathy’s talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCEmiRjPEtQ

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.