It's a Numbers Game Podcast: How the Numbers 3 and 16 are Crucial to the Trump Agenda

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the new Congress, and the sort of new president. I mean he's been there before, but he's essentially new president. President Trump is going to come into the presidency with a Republican Congress, Republican Senate. Fifty three members of the Senate are Republicans, forty five are Democrats, two are independents, and four hundred and thirty five members of Congress will

be I've just been elected. Two hundred and twenty were elected as Republicans, two hundred and fifteen were elected as Democrats. But the two big numbers from that you should draw are the numbers three and the numbers sixteen. Three is the majority in the House of Representatives. That is all the Republicans have. And it's even more complicated for Speaker Mike Johnson, who's trying to be re elected as Speaker. The three person majority is smaller because one macates has.

Former Congressman that case now has retired after winning re election, and there'll be a special election for his seat in Florida's first district. At least Staphonic in Upstate New York from Upstate New York is preparing to retire and resign to go work for the Trump administration as the United Nations Ambassador, and Mike Waltz from Florida is also preparing to resign to go work for the Trump administration. That

gives Speaker Johnson very very little wiggle room. Now, I imagine that Congresswomen's Saphonic and Congressman Walts will sign, will swear in, they'll vote for Speaker Johnson, and then when the Trump administration comes in and formally nominates them, then they'll leave and go, and then the seats will be vacant. All three seats are overwhelmingly Republican, likely to be replaced

by a Republican, but that takes time. Special elections take time, and that means there'll be a window where Speaker Johnson is very little wiggle room. And in a very diverse Congress with a lot of different opinions within the Republican Party, that is, people who are fiscal hawks who want to fight over budget spending, you'll have more liberal Republicans, You'll

have more conservative Republicans, You'll have more populous Republicans. It's hard to rope all those people together and everyone hold hands in one giant family, especially when you've seen in fighting before Congress already began. Likewise, Democrats have their own issues where you have more AOC progressive wing versus on Nancy Pelosi establish a wing and a handful of conservative Democrats or more moderate Democrats like Josh Gothheimer, for example,

out of New Jersey. That is a different dichotomy altogether. But Democrats are a much better job at holding their part together than the Republicans do for an assortment of reasons that I won't even go into today, but that's definitely part of it. Now within the whole Congress, the four hundred and thirty five. The other number I told

you to think about is the number sixteen. The number sixteen represents the thirteen Democrats who won elect their election or re election in seats that Trump won, and the three Republicans who won their reelection in all three cases in districts that Kamala Harris won. Now, the three Republicans are Don Bacon from Nebraska's second Mike Lawler from New York seventeen, and Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania's first district. Don

Bacon is in a very Democratic seat. He will be a much more moderate member of the party because he asked to sit there and hold on. He did very very well that he won by one point eight percent, despite Trump losing his district by over four percent. Mike Lawler and Brian Fitzpatrick out of New York and Pennsylvania, respectively, they won by a much larger margin because the margin that Trump lost by was under a point in both seats. So who are the thirteen Democrats?

out of California, Josh Harder and Adam Gray. That's the Central Valley, very Latino, very Hispanic, moved very far to the right. There's Jared Golden, a main main second congressional It's northern Maine. He's always been a pretty conservative Democrat. He votes for most of the Republican stuff on a lot of bills. He wrote an article for I think it was the Bangalor of Daily saying that he was going to vote for Donald Trump. He's a pretty conservative member.

He barely won in a very very Republican seat. Then there's the newly Then there's Dan Kilde from Michigan's eighth district, which is around the city of Flint area. You have Susie Lee in Nevada's third, which is south of Las Vegas. Nellie Poe. He's brand new, so I might be mispronouncing his name. I'm sorry, I am if I am. It's New Jersey's ninth that's in like the suburbs of New York City. You have Gay Basquez in southern New Mexico. His seat is Jerry Mander, so heavily I'm surprised that

Trump won it, but he did. You have Tom Swazi, which is in Long Island. He's a Democrat. That and a district that Trump won by five points. Don Davis in North Carolina that is the more rural, black, white, working class area. He barely won it in a district that's becoming much much more Republican. You have a Marcy Captor who's been there since nineteen eighty two. She represents an area of Ohio near Michigan. In a very reddening part of the country to in Texas in what I

call the Fahita Belt. This is the part of the country that touches Mexico. You have Henry Quaar from Texas twenty eight and you have been Sane Gunzales from Texas thirty four. Those are districts that are running to the right so fast it is to make a speedy Gonzales show. But that's that's ye know gross. Anyway, you have Maria Goose camp Perez over in Washington's third which is South

Washington near the Oregon border. That's a lot in and I described who they were and where they lived, because if you live in one of their district your voice really matters. If they so choose to run for a re election, they have incredibly tough fights. They're going to have to run in districts they support Trump. They support a lot of Trump's agenda. They probably support mass deportation or tax cuts, or you know, a foreign policy that looks more like Trump and less like Joe Biden. They

will be in a difficult position. So when then that's a double sided sword. By the way, so when Speaker Johnson says, hey, I need to pass continuing resolutions that

include things that a lot of conservative Republicans don't like. Well, they have no problem because they're sit in there and standing with the speaker, and it kind of isolates a lot of conservative Republicans on spending bills, and at the same exact time, they have the ability and the flexibility to say, I'm voting for border le funding, I'm voting for enforcement funding, i am voting for tax cuts or whatever. The Republican is agenda is that it's considered centrist and

moderate without isolating Democrats. Because like Susan Collins, who is perceied to be the only Republican to win in a blue state, they're considered some of the only Democrats to

win in a red district. And that's really where that number sixteen comes in and why it is so important because in twenty twenty five, in the first few months of the year, or maybe it's like the first year, first year of the of his presidency, most of Trump's legislative accomplishments are gonna, you know, come about and pass, or they're going to whether or on the vine you're listening to, it's a numbers game. With Ryan Gerdosky, we'll be right back. There are a few other members that

are worth looking at. These are members who are in more swing districts. They are in districts maybe Trump won but he barely won. They're in districts that Harris won but they're going far to the right, or districts that are moving to the left of they're Republican, And I'm thinking of if you're a Democrat, right, if you're a

Democrat all throughout states of like California. California has so many Democrats besides just Adam Gray and Josh Harder, who I've talked about, but George Whitehouse, he's in Califorlifornia twenty seven district. He's in a district that he won by a decent margin, but Trump's. That was a Biden double digit district and now it is a barely barely barely Democratic district. Left, you're talking about David min from Orange County, and you're talking about Derek Tran also from Orange County.

That's an area that as Asians have sat there and changed their political affiliation more to the right, your politics have changed with them. There's also a district in South Florida for Jared Moscowitz that you're thinking of and all around the New York City suburban districts and New York City districts. Like I said Tom Swazi before, but Laura Gillan, Pat Ryan, Josh Riley, the House majority and the future House majority will run through blue states. I don't think

people realize this. A lot of other pundits will say, get out the Blue states, just lead, just leave. Why you're still there, And I get it, I'm still in a blue states. It's a lot. But if you want a Republican majority, you need those California districts, you need those New York districts, you need those Minnesota districts and those New Jersey districts. And Jerry Manner has made him harder, but it's not impossible. And those members are in tough seats.

There are also a few Republicans who are in districts that are getting bluer and blue and bluer. You're talking about Juan Siscamani over in Arizona. He's a very conservative member, but he is in a district that is very tough. Just sit there and win in. You're talking about Scott Perry over in Pennsylvania, which is basically the Harrisburg District. Now he is a Freedom Caucus member. He's a very conservative member in a district that is getting very, very,

very tough for Republicans to compete in. So maybe he'll moderate more. I don't know. He's pretty pretty hardcore on his conservative beliefs, but who knows. Maybe I'll sit there and say, this is the only way I could survive in this very tough position and keep the Republicans from having another landslide loss in twenty twenty six, or keep the majority possibly or vote for Trump's agenda, which is the point of this entire thing. How Republicans and Democrats

performed in twenty twenty four effects twenty twenty five. Incredibly, I want to just take one second, although these were not my two numbers, and just mention the Senate. The Senate will be an interesting thing because you'll have senators who are retiring, and you'll have senators who are up for very tough primaries. Specifically eyeing two people in particular, Mitch McConnell and Jim Reech. Jim Reach represents Idaho. He will be eighty three years old in twenty twenty six

for reelection. Mitch McConnell will be eighty four obviously has had a number of health episodes, and how they vote in the upcoming Congress will be if they want, how they want their legacy to be. Now, Mitch mcconnel's really made his legacy, but if he spends his last two years sitting there and giving the middle finger to Donald Trump, that will be part of his legacy. If Jim Reech, who most probably not know, decides to be the Mitt Romney of twenty twenty five, that will be part of

his legacy. And it depends on how he wants to really be covered for the rest of his life and at the end of his life. There's also and Democrats on him that many eyes for retirement, possibly Dick Durbin, but who knows. I mean, we'll see. There are essentially when it comes to Republican primaries, there's for incumbents who are facing challenges who will have to show more allegiance to Donald Trump, more allegiance towards ANAGA MAGA policy. There's

really four states that matter. There's Louisiana with Senator Cassidy, who voted for the Trump impeachment already is already facing a statewide challenger, a state wide elected challenger who's got money and resources and will likely be in a very tough position. There's John Cornyn in Texas, who is a powerful member of the Senate but also has a million people targeting him. There's Lindsey Graham, who is Trump's buddy, but he's had a lifetime and a law career of

supporting everything from amnesty to a never ending wars. And there's Joni Earns from Iowa, who people have put a lot of eyes on because of her heasancy towards like Pete has guests and parts of the Trump administration. Put that aside, let's look at who is looking at a tough re election fight. There are two Republicans. Susan Collins who will if anyone challenge her would be a giant mistake because she's the only one who could win that seat,

and Tom Tillis over in North Carolina. Both those members will I mean, Susan Collins couldn't do whatever she wants you Susan Collins, but Tom Tillis it would not be shocking to sit there and see him maybe pushing away from certain positions if they consider too extreme. At the other end. There are two Democrats running for reelection in states that Trump won, first being John Ossoff. John Ossof

in the Great State of Georgia, first termer. He kind of looks like me if I shave my beard when I have a beer, I look like Mike Lahler and so so it's a choice. But you have him, and you have got Gary Peters over in Michigan. Two senators who are going to be looking at a very tough thing out. John Aussip is very politically ideological. He's very left wing. He might stay that way and say, challenge me,

I'll win reelection despite being left wing. Gary Peters he might sit there and put his finger in the wind and say, let me see how the win's blowing. Two other senators are running for reelection who are going to be in competitive seats, possibly first being Jean Shaheen, the former governor term senator of New Hampshire. To say that Trump lost by two points, there's potentially a big challenger considering running against her with a lot of money and resources.

And then Mark Warner in Virginia, who could have a challenge from Governor Glenn Younkin, the popular outgoing governor Virginia has a weird rule. You can only run for one term as a governor at a time. You can then run for reelection after you give someone else a chance. It's very strange, but Glenn Younkin will be out of a job come twenty twenty five, so the chances of running for re election starting for the send in twenty twenty six. He will have nothing holding back. That's really

the economy though. Those few senators and those sixteen members, those sixteen members will decide whether or not Mike Johnson can hold and push forward Trump's agenda despite having only three seats. Now, I know this was a lot of information for a first episode, but you guys got to be prepared for the year ahead. Thank you so much for listening. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate it. I hope this is the beginning of a lot more episodes. We'll have a guest on next week and we're going

to talk immigration policy. So come on check us out every Monday on the iHeartRadio app, the Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. I appreciate you. Tune in next time.