I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM. It's a month since the start of the US Israeli war in Iran. Now, President Trump says he wants Iran's oil. He's threatening to seize the country's carg Island, saying he could take it easily. Meanwhile, thousands of US troops are arriving in the region today. Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute for Responsible state Craft on a possible ground invasion of Iran? Will Trump do it or not? And what will it take for all sides to call it off.
It's Tuesday, March thirty one.
After four weeks of war in the Middle East, the conflict grinds on. Reports indicate the United States is preparing for possible weeks of ground operations inside of Iran that would include thousands of US service members.
Over the weekend. TRADEO.
We have the US sending thousands of troops to the Middle East right now, even though Trump has said that the ground invasion isn't necessary. Are you considering still putting boots on the ground and would you do that without going on I just.
Haven of aults. We have tremendous numbers of ships over there. We don't need them long because of you know, the power. Look the I would say, we're just like we're a head of schedule on the borough. In a much bigger way, we're ahead of schedule.
Whether where so, what do you think is going to happen? And what options would the US be assessing right now when it comes to putting troops on the ground.
It does appear quite likely that Trump, because of the fact that this war is an utter failure so far, will ben opt to try to escalate his way out of this conflict, and the hope appears to be to either take some islands in the Persian God in order to reduce the ability of the Iranians to close the Strait of Hormoes, although it's very unclear that that actually will be effective, or alternatively, take some islands and essentially use them as collateral, hoping that this will be some
sort of a pressure on the Iranians in which they get the islands back if they open up the straits. Or a third alternative is that there actually will be several front war in which several islands as well as ground invasion in other parts of Iran will take place in order to really just turn the momentum in the US favor, whereas in reality it's been in Iran's favor for the last couple of weeks at this point. All of these options, however, I think, are extremely unwise, extremely risky.
It was a massive mistake to go into this war. It will be a massive mistake to escalate with ground troops. Two mistakes do not make it fixed.
For Trup, why do you say that the Iranians have the upper hand And if there is a ground invasion, what is it that the US troops would face in terms of geography and physically.
So a couple of points. So, first of all, this is a failure for the US because Trump only had a plan A in place. That plan was that within four days he would overthrow the government or force it to capitulate.
We didn't the start this war. It was an unprovoked, unwarranted, illegal act of aggression against US, and we are only defending ourselves.
This was based on a dramatic miscalculation and underestimation of Iran's resolve and strength, something that had been sold to him by the Israelis, lulling him into the belief that this would be so easy it's better to overthrow the government than to strike a deal with that.
What we are doing as an act of self defense is targeting American basis, American installations, American assets, and American interests, which are unfortunately located in the territory of our neighbors.
So he didn't have a plan B when all of that came crashing down, and we've seen them essentially improvising the war ever since. The other reason why this is a failure is because the Iranians completely surprised the United States in terms of their countermeasures. They were the ones who were defining the geography of this war, and they
manage to close the strait of Hormones. They're the ones who decide which ships goes through and which ones do not, and then they're also collecting fees from those ships that are going through. So you asked, you know, what would the costs and topography be if they were to invade, if they were trying to go into the Iranian mainland. It's the very mountainous reminds you of Afghanistan. If they take some of these islands, which seems to be quite likely, Yes,
they can probably take the islands relatively easily. But then what then you're stationary, You have nowhere to go. You can't move the island, and the Iranians will be raining down missiles and droned on American troops on those islands, and you will very likely end up having hundreds of Americans killed within the first.
Forty eight hours trade A one strategy that you've written about that the US and Israelis might try against Iran is something called mowing the lawn. And it's what these rallies have done in Gaza for years.
The region's language is mowing the grass.
That Iran tries to build up terror capability, terror capability that everyone's wrongly have to mow the grass.
Do you think it's something that the US would really consider now in Iran, this policy of just going back every few years to attack the country.
So this is part of the reason why the Iranians are refusing to agree to a ceasfire. Trump tried to get a seasfire after four days, because they know what they believe that the United States and Israel would use the ceasefire to regroup, rearm, and then relaunch the war a year later, six months later, two years later, just like they did compared to June of last year when these Radis attacked him on. So the Iranians are actually
refusing to end the war. They're the ones who are essentially said, we have a vitail on when this war ends, and they're not going to end it until they get guarantees that this war will not be started again, that this is an end to the war. It's not a ceasefire, and it is not a mowing of the law.
And they continue to defend ourselves as much as it takes and as long as it takes in order to end this war in a way that it won't be repeated in the future.
Part of the way that they're going to try to make sure that they have the fact to guarantee is to make this as costly as possible for the GCC states, for Israel, and for the United States to this war itself, so that everyone concludes this war was a mistake, and as a result, everyone concludes it would be a mistake to restart the war as well.
The Hoofy movement in Yemen, who has attacked Israel for the first time since the start of the war on Iran. The Israeli military said the missile had triggered sirens in and around the southern city of Beersheba.
We've also had this major development with of around regional proxies, the Hookies in Yemen. They've joined the fight as well, attacking Israel. Why do you think they've chosen now to get involved when they seem to be sitting on the sidelines earlier. And if they also start attacking shipping in the Red Sea like they did during the Israel gars a war, how is that really going to escalate not only the war but the global oil crisis.
It's going to be devastating for the global oil crisis. In fact, right now we're not feeling yet what the actual crisis is. The Hooties, I think, are now flexing their muscles for a couple of reasons. One is to kind of signal what will happen if the United States goes in with the ground troops. It's a signal to saying that, you know, then the other golf will be closed as well, and that's going to dramatically increase crisis
and really make the situation much worse for Trump. Secondly, I think we're now at a stadium which Israeli Pressed is reporting that eighty percent of Iran's missiles are getting through. The Israelis are running out of interceptors, the Ivanians have destroyed a lot of their radars other things that it's just making these Raelis much less effective. The Uti basals
are not as effective as the Ivanian wants. So they're coming in at a moment in which it is much easier for them to hit Israel than it would have been if they had started weeks ago, when the israeliir
defense systems were still pretty much attact. And I think also they're making this threat as a way of warning the Saudis and the Amordis that if they openly enter the war, which the Amoritis have hinted that they might, then the Hootis will likely start attacking them again, and then the war with the UTIs will have restarted, something that the Saris are very happy that they don't have
to fight at this moment. There would be a huge mistake and challenge for the Saudis to have to deal both with Yvan and with the Houtis at the same time.
Coming up, why is Trump humiliating his allies in the Gulf.
He said, you know, it's amazing. President a year ago, you were a dead country. Now you're literally the hardest country anywhere in the world. And that was before we beat the hell out of a rod Treata.
Obviously, we're all following very closely what Trump has to say about the war and all the countries involved in it. But one of the statements that really struck me over the last week was what he had to say in Florida when he was quoting the Saudi crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman.
He really went on to basically mock him.
He didn't think he'd be kissing my ass.
He really didn't.
He thought he'd be just another American president that was a loser where the country is going downhill. But now he has to be nice to me. You tell him he'd better be nice to me.
What was that all about?
Because Saudi, as you've said, is being hit hard in this war. Trump used to have a lot of respect for its leaders, but he now seems to want to humiliate them. Doesn't he need all the allies he can get right now?
This is a typical pattern. We see countries make themselves dependent on the United States, and then Trump cannot resist but to humiliate them. For the fact that they are dependent. A year ago, NBS actually was in a strong position
visa VI Trump. Currently he isn't because of this war a ward apparently, according to New York Times and Washington Post, MBS lobby for so now the tables are turned and Trump just doesn't simply have what it takes to resist, and it tells the Saudis what will happen after this war. If the Saudi choice is to triple down on an American security umbrella, Saudi may have a few choices. They're not going to be able to go to China entirely.
The Pakistan option has already fallen apart. More or less could try to find a new equilibrium with Iran, but that's going to be very tough and very humiliating for them. It's not going to be the same deal as they had last time when they normalize relations with Iran, or they can triple down and go down the path of further dependence on the United States. But if they do so, it's already clear Trump will treat them as a vassal stake,
just as he has been treating the Europeans. Just take a look at how he's speaking about Starmar in the UK, for instance. So I think the GCC states are going to be in a very tough position. Obviously, they are infuriated with Iran because Iran has been striking at them. They have also allowed, or at least the US has been using their Arab space and bass. Even though the GCC states say that they're not actively involved.
To Iran, the brotherly relationship, the neighborly relationship between our peoples should take paramount over any other political consideration. The fact that they decided to attack our country like this does not show, but never the relations I.
Mean, the Iranians are destroying American airplanes outside the airfield, so they're landing there, they're refueling, they're being used. But will they go down the path of trying to make peace with Iran or go down the path of becoming dependent on the US. Neither of these options are particularly attractive to any of these CCC states.
So right now we have more US troops arriving in the Gulf, talk of an imminent ground invasion, and then we also had Trump give the Iranians a peace plan via Pakistani diplomats. The Iranians rejected that they came back with their own plan. Do you think that this Pakistani back channel seems to be gaining traction and could it lead to a way out of this war or are we just too deep in right now?
I mean, the Pakistani channel could potentially lead to something. The Pakistanis are very eager to put an end to this war because there were only two three days away from running out of fuel altogether. So the manner in which Asian countries have been devastated by this war, it's very different from what the US has felt. The US is really not feeling the cost quite yet, but we've seen that Philippines is in an emergency situation now, India, Bangladesh,
Pakistan are all closing offices. People are working from home because they have to save on the fuel. But reality is, if those diplomatic talks end up on the basis of what the Trump administration's fifteen point plan was, it's absolutely not going to go anywhere. Those were still demands and made it look as if the Vans had to capitulate to the United States, as if the US was winning this war. Beyond that, I think it would be extremely foolish to negotiate this in public. But the US is
leaking this stuff deliberately for a simple reason. They want to have an immediate reduction of the oil prices by saying that talks are taking place. But the more they do that, the more they undermine the actual effectiveness of those talks. Clear whether the US is doing this simply to push down all prices in the short term before it invades the country with ground troops, or if Trump just is not capable of playing a long game and a short game at the same time.
Trader, I lived in the Gulf for a decade, and I keep thinking back to all these major events, the Iraq War, the Arab Spring, serious civil war, the rise of Islamic State, and when you reflect on all of that history, it still feels like this could be the biggest crisis that the Middle East has faced in the last twenty years.
What do you think where is all of this heading?
This likely will end up becoming one of the biggest shifts in the region in the last couple of decades, perhaps going all the way back to nineteen seventy nine, because one of the things that likely will come out of this is that the threat of American military force against Yvon will no longer carry any credibility or effectiveness. Nat has relied on that threat extensively to try to
extract nuclear concessions from Iran. Yvon may very well end up building a bomb, having been attacked twice by two nuclear weapons states in the midst of negotiations. But even if it doesn't, what is the US going to say in future nuclear talks, if you don't agree to these terms, we will bomb you. And as a result, the entire balance in the region and Yvon's the terrence against Israel
is going to become something completely different. There's going to take some serious diplomacy in which the United States in Iran, and as we'll all understand that they're all going to have to give some concessions, it might view these Raelis should not be involved in the negotiations because these rallies don't want an end to the war at all. The US does, and the Iranians do at the right price
sanctions relief. Hopefully, the US, from the standpoint can also then convince the Iranians that in return they will start selling at least half of their oil in US dollars instead of the Chinese one. But Trump, if he continues this this will destroy his presidency and define his presidency in the same manner that the Iraq War destroyed and define George W. Bush's presidency.
Treda, thank you very much for speaking with us today.
Thank you so much for having me.
Also in the news.
We're making feel cheaper today because we understand that Australians are under serious pressure.
Herbo.
We really also want to encourage Australians who can to take public transport to help save fuel for the areas and industries that need it.
The federal government has announced it will have the fuel exercise, cutting petrol and diesel by around twenty six cents per later for the next three months. It's part of a new national fuel Security plan, which includes better cooperation between the states and potential rationing to ensure supplies for critical services. And a former Christmas Island immigration detention worker, Jason Virgo,
has won the safe Liberal seat of McKillop. This brings the total number of One Nation seats in the Lower House to three. One Nation is also a head in another seat, which remains in doubt, Narranga on the state's York Peninsula. I'm Nicole Johnston. This is seven am. Thanks for listening,