Trump’s plans for the Middle East - podcast episode cover

Trump’s plans for the Middle East

Nov 13, 202415 minEp. 1397
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Episode description

When US President-elect Donald Trump claimed victory last week, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was among the first to congratulate him.

Trump and Netanyahu have a close relationship and Netanyahu’s far-right national security minister has said he’s sure Trump would see “eye-to-eye” with Israel.

Meanwhile, president-elect Trump claims he will end the war in the Middle East, but has not revealed how he plans to do so.

Until December, Dana Stroul was the most senior civilian at the Pentagon focused on the Middle East. Today, Stroul tells us what a second Trump term means for the region and whether we could see an end to the war in Gaza.


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Guest: Dana Stroul, Director of Research, Washington Institute and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for the Middle East at the Pentagon.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am. One of the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump. Barter's victory last week was Israel's Prime Minister of Benjamin Netanyahu, and it wasn't just a political message. It was warm and personal, a sign of their close relationship. Netanyahu's far right national security minister has cities sure Trump would see either eye with Israel, but President e lec Trump has also claimed he'll be able to end the war in

the Middle East. Dana Strill was the most senior civilian that the Pentagon focused on the Middle East on October seven, before she left the Pentagon in December. Today she tells us what a second Trump term means through the region and whether we could see an end of the war in Gaza. It's Thursday, November fourty Dinah, thanks so much for speaking to me. You were working at the Pentagon on October seven. Can you describe to me what that was like.

Speaker 2

The first phone call I received was about two am in the morning. So for any of your listeners who have watched West Wing or shows like that, all the Pentagon, the State Department, the White House all have switchboards where we can call each other in the middle of the night, and mine was set to always ring if somebody needed me.

So in the early morning in the United States on October seventh, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's chief of staff called me and had described a situation in which Hamas had broken out of Gaza and was running through Israel, killing and murdering Israelis. And I went to the Pentagon and we monitor the situation all day, both with Secretary of Defense Austin, President Biden and others.

Speaker 1

And had did it end up shifting the US's position in relation to the Middle East Gazer in Israel?

Speaker 2

It shifted it tremendously. So we had spent the first three years of the Biden administration really focused on other threats. So generally speaking, we viewed Iran as the center of gravity for destabilizing activities across the Middle East, and Iran's proxies like Hezbollah or the Huthis in Yemen, as increasingly sophisticated in their capabilities and able to challenge not only

Israel but also the United States and others. And the Biden administration had also spent time very much focused on the West Bank and the situation there, and we generally assessed that in Gaza, this situation was stable in the sense that Hamas and the leaders of Hamas had political governance over that area and did not want to compromise

that position. We had focused on not having a military first strategy and then focusing with our partners on ways to bring security instability to the Middle East that did not rely on the military as the first instrument of choice but really the last resort, and that meant focusing

on diplomacy and humanitarian aid winding down conflicts. And obviously that all completely collapsed on October seventh as we struggled to understand both the level and scale of the violence taking place and really the entirety of military efforts since October seventh has been working largely to prevent World War III, to prevent escalation of the conflict in a way that stability and security can be brought back to the region.

It's very Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah who says he's had three conversations with US President elect Donald Trump since his election victory.

Speaker 1

And when I have President Elect Donald Trump sit to ty Guy over to the presidency in January, so hey would you describe their relationship between Donald Trump and Benjamin Yahoo, Well, it's.

Speaker 3

Clearly very warm.

Speaker 2

There were plenty of news leaks that Netsan Yahoo and Trump were speaking before his election. Netsan Yahoo was one of the first world leaders to congratulate President elect Trump, and they have reportedly had multiple phone calls since. But even though Trump in the campaign stated that his administration will be the most pro Israel administration, it's important to also reflect that Trump Number one also said what Israel's doing in Gaza is bad for Israel. It's bad for

what he calls the pr and it's eroded. They're standing on the international stage.

Speaker 4

They're releasing the most panous, most horrible types of buildings falling down, and people are imagining there's a lot of people in those buildings or people in those buildings, and they don't like it. And I don't know why they release, you know, wartime shots like that. I guess it makes them look tough, but to me, it doesn't make them look tough. They're losing the PR war. They're losing it big.

Speaker 2

And Trump has also promised the Lebanese population. He's promised other leaders in the region, the Arab leaders and he's made promises to Palestinians as well that he's going to bring peace.

Speaker 4

I want to see the Middle East get back to peace and real peace. But the piece that's going to be a lasting piece, and that's going to happen, I feel really truly confident.

Speaker 2

The challenge we have right now is that there's absolutely no specificity or plans about exactly how he's going to bring peace, and what Israel's requirements are are probably not going to look like what we think peace would look like, which is the end of military operations. And the reality is after more than a year of high intensity military

operations in Gaza, Hamas is still there. And we also, I think need to remember that Trump does not only have warm relationships with Prime Minister Nets in Yahoo, he also has really warm relationships with the leaders of the Arab part of the Middle East, specifically in Abu Dhabi and in Riod, in the United Arab Emirates, in Saudi Arabia.

Speaker 3

And these leaders are very clear on the need.

Speaker 2

For a path to a Palestinian state on dignity and humanitarian aid and more than humanitarian aid, and to recognize those outcomes, there will have to be political concessions by the government of Israel, led by Prime Minister nets In Yahoo, and here, I think.

Speaker 3

Is where we're going to see some significant tension.

Speaker 1

After the break. One of the key figures Trump will be listening to one of hay Mag's decisions about how Hey deals with the Middle East, Diana. Trump is finalously unpredictable and oscillation in this. So can we say a darling in Bacco support for Israel during Trump's second.

Speaker 2

Tim First of all, what's important to recognize at this moment in time is that there's different camps of foreign policy thinkers within the Trump circle, and there's clearly an isolation is strained and that reflects, I think very much some of the debate within the Republican Party and the wing of the Republican Party that has very much supported

President elect Trump. There are also other parts of his inner circle who believe that to protect America you actually need a strong foreign policy, and some of the outcomes that they have articulated, whether it's ending the Russian invasion of Ukraine, whether it's be being more tough on China, or whether it's being more tough on Iran. Frankly, that is not something America can do alone, it's going to

have to do it with allies and partners. And to do with allies and partners means you're going to have to be engaged in the world. And so I think what the resources and the manpower, the personnel, and the attention that Trump and his team are going to put into this. There's some inherent tentions we want to burden share with the whole world. We don't want to do

it ourselves. We want you all to do it. But the rest of the world isn't going to do it if they don't see America putting some skin in the game. And those are some of the conversations that I think President Trump is going to encounter when the rubber meets the road when he gets into office.

Speaker 3

In January, the.

Speaker 1

New York Times reported this way that Iranian operatees had discussed a plan to assessinate Donald Trump given that kuld a Trump administration sawn off on open warfare against our own.

Speaker 3

Well.

Speaker 2

The only articulation we clearly have from any member of Trump's circle thus far about open word or with Iran would be Vice President elect JD. Vance And at the one vice presidential debate that was held.

Speaker 3

Both tim Walds and.

Speaker 2

Jadvance were asked very directly if they would support preemptive military.

Speaker 3

Strikes on Iran, and jade Vance said nothing about America's role.

Speaker 2

All he said is that the United States should support Israel, and whatever Israel wants to do, it is up to Israel what they think they need to do to keep their country safe.

Speaker 1

And we should support allies wherever they are when they're fighting the bad guys. I think that's the right approach to take with the Israel question.

Speaker 2

And what we haven't heard from President Trump or anyone yet in what's emerging as his foreign policy circle is a declarative or definitive articulation of what the policy will be toward Iran. So is it to prevent a nuclear weapon state? Is it to change the regime? Is it something else? They actually haven't been very clear on that.

Speaker 1

The next Trump administrations expected to try and increase the number of Arabistites with diplomatic ties to Israel, helial Trump's relationship with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia factoring to Sadi Arabia coming in to ply more of a row.

Speaker 3

Well, again, here are some opportunities because President Trump has a very warm relationship with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad bin Selman. He also the Trump Company has extensive business interests in Saudi Arabia, as do people like his son in law Jared Kushner. One one I think critical thing to recognize about Jared Kushner is that during the first Trump administration he maintained a constant dialogue with the leaders of the Middle East.

Speaker 2

They had ready access to him, and he was a key architect of the Abraham Accords, which facilitated the beginning of Israel's normalization in the Middle East. The other critical aspect effect of Kushner's vision is that it's not just about the US military, but it's very much about seeing especially in the Gulf the Middle East, as not just a regional leader, but a global leader. With the global

interest of these sovereign wealth funds. They're focused on artificial intelligence, renewable energy, that there are tremendous investment opportunities as well in the Middle East, and so Jared Kushner has his own investment fund and has worked very extensively with the

leaders of the Middle East on that. He appears to not want a formal role in the second Trump White House, but there is I think no question that this is a very close family and that he will serve as an important back channel between the leaders of the region and his.

Speaker 3

Father in law.

Speaker 2

The question here, though, is that for the Saudis to do this, there's going to need to be something on a Palestinian horizon, for a Palestinian state, and there I think the open question is whether Netan Yahoo in his current governing coalition can get to anything that would be satisfactory to the Saudist And if he can't, what sort of anger does that cause in President Trump?

Speaker 3

We'll read about it on Twitter the next day.

Speaker 1

How is this guy's the way? There's sixty seven days left until Trump takes office. What will thise mons look like? The people in the ground in Gaza.

Speaker 3

I worry that they don't look very good. And here's why.

Speaker 2

Trump has actually been quite clear publicly and then from all the leaked phone calls, that he wants it to be over by his inauguration. So if Neta Yahoo perceives that he has this deadline of January twentieth to wrap up the military part of this campaign, I think there's a real serious probability that the military operations escalate before January twentieth, So that for Netsan Yahoo and for his governing coalition, and to prepare them for some of the

concessions they might need to consider. On the other side of Trump's inauguration, they do what they perceive as maximum damage to Hamas now, and so what that means for civilians in Gaza is actually more more pressure, more military operations.

Speaker 1

Diana, thank you so much for your tom Thanks for having me also in the East today. US President elect Donald Trump has nominated FORMAT Governor Mark Huckabee as the next US Ambassador to Israel. Hakkabee has been a vocal support of Israel throughout his career, more recently criticizing President Jay Biden for pressuring Israel to moderate his campaign in

Gaza and his opposed calls for a ceasefire. And despite pledges from nations at COP twenty eight a year ago, the burning of coal, oil, and gas continue to rise. In twenty twenty four. New data released at the UN's COP twenty nine Climate Conference indicates fossil fuel emissions will rise zero point eight percent this year globally, and it projected to be almost eight percent higher than in twenty fifteen, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was signed. I'm Daniel James.

This is seven am. We'll be back tomorrow

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