This could only end in a very bad place - podcast episode cover

This could only end in a very bad place

Dec 09, 202516 minEp. 1750
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Episode description

AUKUS is moving full steam ahead. That was the promise made in Washington, as Richard Marles and Penny Wong stood beside their US counterparts, stating the alliance is stronger than ever.

But behind those assurances is a Pentagon review of AUKUS that the public isn't allowed to read – and in Canberra, a hand-picked AUKUS committee that will mostly meet in secret, raising questions about what our government is trading away to stay friends with our most powerful ally.

Today, former Director of War Studies for the Australian Army and adjunct professor at UNSW, Dr Albert Palazzo, on the US military’s plans for expansion on Australian soil – and what the secrecy around AUKUS is really hiding.

 

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Guest:  Former Director of War Studies for the Australian Army and adjunct professor at UNSW, Dr Albert Palazzo

Photo: EPA/LUKE JOHNSON

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Transcript

Speaker 1

We are full steam ahead.

Speaker 2

We are full steam ahead.

Speaker 3

At the direction of the President.

Speaker 2

Aucus is full steam ahead, as he said, and I know the new market in word.

Speaker 3

It's as if they had the same speech writer.

Speaker 4

Finally, as we move, as was mentioned, full steam ahead. On August, we applaud Australia's upcoming delivery of an additional one billion to help expand US submarine production capacity.

Speaker 1

When Richard Miles and Penny Wong stood beside the US counterparts in Washington this week, everyone sang from the same songbook, talking up the alliances, bright future and planning to visit each other.

Speaker 2

So we're very grateful that you were willing to come here and join us, and we look forward to reciprocating in the new year by visiting you in Australia as I look forward to and it's one of my I actually have never been, and I need to go.

Speaker 3

When you see such alignment, I'm in four different peoples from two different countries saying essentially the same thing. You have to wonder, gee, what's going on here? Is there no point of disagreement at all? But no, apparently not, And they're all quite convinced that we're powering ahead.

Speaker 1

But behind those assurances is a Pentagon review of ORCUS that the public isn't allowed to read and in camera, a handpicked orcast committee that will mostly meet in secret, raising questions about what our government is trading away to stay friends with our most powerful ally.

Speaker 3

Frankly, this seems to me a distortion of reality, but it's certainly enthusiastic, and I have to give them credit for that.

Speaker 1

I'm Ruby Jones, and you're listening to seven am today. Former Director of War Studies for the Australian Army and adjunct professor at the University of New South Wales, doctor Albert Plazzo, on the US military's plans for expansion on Australian soil and what the secrecy surrounding ORCUS is really hiding. It's Wednesday, December tenth, Albert. During this press conference, there was a lot of talk about AUCUST going full steam ahead, but not a lot of detail about what that actually

looks like. So tell me what you gleaned from what we actually heard.

Speaker 3

Well, they trotted out all the traditional remarks, including the ones that you know, Australians and Americans are fought side by side in every major war since the First World War.

Speaker 2

But it is our only ally that has fought with us in every war over the last over the certainly over the last four or five decades, and we're very grateful to them for that, and this is a very strong partnership.

Speaker 3

Why that is relevant, nobody has ever said, but it certainly is used to indicate that we're closer than ever and closer than any two countries could ever be. But the last time I checked, Australia and the United States were different countries, and being different countries, you would expect us to have different interests.

Speaker 1

And perhaps the most detail that we did get was from Pete Hegseeth, the Secretary of Defense. So let's talk about what he said about how exactly the US and Australia are set to deepen their defense ties.

Speaker 4

On the defense side, we're working on force posture. We're working on defense industrial cooperation first on forced posture initiatives. We're upgrading infrastructure on air bases in Queensland and the Northern Territory that allows for additional US bomber rotations.

Speaker 3

We already have a significant US presence on Australian territory and now they're talking about bringing in more basing ospreys here so that the Marines could rapidly deploy on an offensive operation.

Speaker 4

Upgrading logistics and infrastructure in Darwin. Some more US Marines can do rotational deployments and prepositioning MB twenty two ospreys. This establishes new and resilient logistics networks across Australia.

Speaker 3

We've even had the US Air Force mounting attacks from Australian soil to foreign soil when they conducted that raid on the Houthi militants in Yemen, and they based out of Amberley.

Speaker 5

Airbase, America, and the United Kingdom joining forces with Australia in tow to bomb Yemen. The Allies are targeting an Iran backed militant group which has been launching attacks on international ships. Just minutes ago. The Houthis responded saying the US and UK would pay a heavy price for the blatant aggression.

Speaker 3

Now I find this all very concerning because bit by bit, our government is allowing the United States to go to war from Australian soil as if it's not of any importance to.

Speaker 1

US and Albert Earlier this year, the Pentagon ordered a review of AUCUS. That review was delayed It still hasn't been publicly released, but some lawmakers in Australia and the US have actually seen it. Now, So what do we know about that review and what it says.

Speaker 3

Well, we know very little because the government has not released it and there's no indications that the Minister of Defense will release it. But what he has said is that everything's great, it's all wonderful. We're powering ahead. Whatever UCUS is meant to deliver, it's going to deliver it. And whatever is going to cost, well, we don't know, but it'll be paid for and everything's going to work out swimmingly well. And the United States is standing by us steadfastly as our most important ally.

Speaker 5

It really was a very constructive, warm, frank meeting between the four of US which took the alliance forward another year.

Speaker 3

Now they're continuing to believe that we're going to get these submarines. But as the US Navy's Chief of Naval Operations has already pointed out, the US build rate has not budged. They are not building enough submarines for their own needs. They're not maintaining enough submarines for their own needs. It has not shifted in the slightest. That's not been the slightest improvement in four years. And essentially they have to double the build rate in order for Australia to

get its submarines. There's just no way it's going to double. That's just an impossibility. And we're now scheduled, according to the Osman Dialogue, as scheduled to give them another billion dollars next year to put towards the US submarine industry. That frankly is a drop in the bucket, although where our money is going is not ever explained. So the US cannot build enough submarines, and if they can't build enough submarines it would be madness on their part to give us a few.

Speaker 1

Coming up is Australia tagging along into nuclear war with China, so albert At the same time as all of this has been happening, the Albanese government here in Australia has announced its own review mechanism. It's the Orcus Committee. So what is that in practice?

Speaker 3

Well, the Albanese government, along with the opposition leader Susan Lee, have decided to establish an Orcus Review Committee with within parliament and it'll consist of up to seven parliamentarians and up to six outsiders. So we can fairly expect that anyone who gets this job will be fully committed to the Orcus agenda. So this is not so much as

a review committee as a rubber stamp committee. And it's also largely going to be held in secret, so the Australian public will never really find out what they're talking about.

Speaker 1

And how concerned are you by that concept.

Speaker 3

Well, I'm an Australian citizen and I like to think that I have a right to know what the government is doing, and I like to think that in a

strong viper democracy, the government can actually trust the people. Now, yes, there are certain things that will need to be kept secret, such as how many missiles will carry and what's its range and the exact parameters of its sensors and communications devices absolutely require secrecy, but most of it is in secret, and most of it is things that we as Australian citizens have a right to know, such as who's going to control these submarines. Is it going to be controlled

by the United States or by Australia. And if Australia decides to do something that the United States doesn't approve of, will the submarines still function or will there be a kill switch that will prevent them from doing stuff unless the United States agrees. Now, I think that's fairly important and that should be confirmed to the Australian public. And the same way, are we planning to operate with these submarines in the East China Sea or in the Straits

of Taiwan in the face of potential Chinese opposition? Again, fairly important thing to know. And I have very little expectations that the government will tell us what their broader strategic planning is in the use of these platforms.

Speaker 1

And so what do you think is behind that? Then behind this amount of secrecy around orcus? Is this about national security or do you see something else underpinning it?

Speaker 3

Yeah, there's an element of national security here which is legitimate, but that is I fear that could be minor element here.

The larger element is that the government doesn't want to trust the Australian public with this knowledge because if they did, it's likely to be politicized by the opposition, or by the Greens, or by just ordinary people like myself who will look at what the government is saying and point out where there are failures in logic or failures in strategic thinking or risks that they're posing to the country

without telling the Australian public. So you know, the government wants to control the narrative, and the best way to control the narrative is to not let anybody in on what the narrative is. Politicians may, perhaps rightly or correctly, can be concerned about political risks, you know, to their own futures and their own ability to win elections, But I'm more interested in the national security risk. And we're heading down a pathway that can only lead to confrontation

with China. And that's the full steam ahead. And if you look at the national Security strategy that the US government published just a couple of days ago, it is heading towards a confrontation with China, and Australia is tagging along as a good little buddy, you know, doing our best to help our long established friend in a war with China. That is a risk of enormous magnitude because great powers cannot go to war, but our government seems

to discount that as an outcome. And the worst part of all is that both the United States and China are nuclear armed, and nuclear armed powers cannot go to war because if they do, everyone dies. And I'm saying that quite directly because that is the outcome of a nuclear war between great powers.

Speaker 1

So yeah, if Orcus is this risky bet on an increasingly chaotic partner in the US, what is the alternative?

Speaker 3

Well, there are alternatives. And one of the many areas of concern regarding the United States over the last let's say, since the end of the Cold War, is that when there's a problem, governments have numerous levers in which they can solve the problem or try to solve the problem. But the US has consistently over the last forty five years pulled the military lever. If they've got a problem

in the world, their default response is to smash it. Diplomacy, talking, negotiating are no longer considered first rank levers of governments and power. So what you should be doing with China is a lot of talking, and that's what Australia should be doing. There are international problems to which there is no military solution, and this is one of them. The US Chinese contest does not have a military solution because

the military solution is enormously painful. So if there's no military solution, find a different government, lever and start working that one. But unfortunately that's not what happened. They're doubling down on the military one, and the Albanese government in the Australian Military, the Australian Defense Force are just happily tagging along for the ride, and this could only end in a very bad place.

Speaker 1

Albert, thank you so much for your time.

Speaker 3

It's a pleasure to speak to you.

Speaker 1

Also in the news, interest rates have been left on hold at three point six percent. The Reserve Bank's decision comes after a recent spike in inflation from three point six percent in September to three point eight percent in October. In a statement, the RBA Board said that the board's judgment is that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors, but that uncertainty remains.

And political heavyweights including former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, Cabinet Minister Tony Burke, and former Queensland Premier and Estata Paliche were among the guests at the state funeral of former labor powerbroker Graham richardson yesterday. Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi gave the eulogy, describing Richardson as colorful and as much as a part of Sydney as the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Richardson has been mired in controversy throughout his life, with allegations

ranging from sex scandals to corruption. He was never charged or convicted and always denied the allegations. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. Thanks for listening.

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