While the world focuses on the war underway in Iran, Israel, and the Gulf, there's another front Lebanon. Israel unleashed another wave of intense strikes on the capitol overnight.
One flattened an apartment building in the center of Beirut.
Lebanon's Iranian BacT Shia group Hezbola, attacked Israel after a joint US Israeli air strike killed Iran supreme leader Iatola Ali Hamena. Hesbila launched around two hundred missiles at northern Israel overnight in a coordinated attack with Iran, which launched four ballistic missiles Salvos. Israel then hit back, bombing bea route and domessing tens of thousands of troops on the border.
Israeli military has announced it began quote focused ground operations in southern Lebanon.
I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM today Michael Young, editor of Carnegie's Middle East Center, blog on Lebanon. Is it facing a ground invasion and what is Israel's plan to reshape the region. It's Friday, March twenty Michael, You're in Beirute and living in the middle of this war. How are you holding up and what impact is it having on daily life.
Well, we have to understand that the war in Lebanon is you know, two countries side by side. Many people are not living in areas, and I'm one of them, are not living in areas that are being bombed. Having said that, the Israelis have bombed within Beirute, for example, in recent hours they bombed areas not far from here. Israel's government promised retaliation has bon as intensified drone and rocket attacks.
This was it a residential building in Central Bay Route raised.
But by and large, the Israeli attacks have taken place primarily against areas where they say Hezuela is stationed, which basically means primarily Shia areas of concentration. So it's a tale of two countries. Part of the country is living more or less a normal life, I mean as normal as can be. But part of the country is being devastated by the Israeli attacks and you have you know, Abidian displaced from these areas.
The humanitarian situation and Lebanon has spiraled from a crisis into a full blown catastrophe. That's how aid workers on the ground are describing the dire situation with more than a million people forced out of their homes.
So could you take us back a little bit to how Lebanon's militant group has Belah ended up entering the wall. I mean, couldn't they have just set it out? Why did they decide to get involved in this war?
Well, I don't think this was a Haswela decision. I think this was an Iranian decision by a large Many, including many Shiah, did not want to enter this war. But it was clear that because of the ties between Hasbala and Iran, it was almost impossible for Hasbala not to enter the war. And we have to understand that in twenty twenty four, Hasbalala's military leadership as well as its political leadership, was devastated by the Israelis.
Israelly military says that it has assassinated all of these senior Hasbala commanders. So just how has this Israeli campaign been able to penetrate Hasbala security.
The Israelis killed its secretary General Hassan Masraala, they killed two of his likely successors. So since that time, it seems that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have taken a much more direct control of the organization, and given the close coordination between Iran and Husbalah, there also appears to be even sort of tactical coordination between the two. In other words, when Iran launches missiles from Iran, it's coordinating these launchers
with the launchers from Lebanon. So the decision to enter the war was very much an Iranian decision, And there are rumors in Beirut that actually the political leadership of Hasbalah, even the Secretary General Naim Krassem, that they did not want Hasbala to enter the conflict.
And for some of our listeners, could you actually give us some background on who is Hesblah and how much they've been weakened over the last few years of war with Israel.
What Haswell is essentially a military political organization that the Iranians essentially organized in Lebanon basically emerged in the nineteen eighties and played a key role during the nineteen nineties in fighting Israeli occupation of southern and Hasbullah in the last two and a half decades has emerged in a way as a symbol of growing Shia power in Lebanon.
The party has you know, played a very key role in the Lebanese state, I would say, in almost imposing hegemonic control over the Lebanese state in the last fifteen years. So in a way, many shiah identified with Hasbala because in the sectarian Lebanese system, has Bala gave them a great deal of influence and a great deal of power. But Haswola has been weakened in twenty twenty four, it
suffered a major defeat. But we shouldn't overestimate this because it's anchored in a in one of Lebanon's larger communities. The party has been able to a certain extent. It seems to continue paying its combatants and to re arm in such a way that today it seems that they are surprising the Israeles in terms of their firepower.
Now, Michael, as you were saying, there's division within Hesbela among Lebanon's political leaders about whether or not to be involved in this war, but clearly they're in the war. Now. Is it tearing the country apart politically? And do you think there are any signs at all that the Lebanese army would ever end up fighting Hesbela.
Well, it's not. We're not at a stage yet where it's tearing the country up. There are deep divisions within the country. But we have to understand that Lebanon went through a very, very bloody civil war between nineteen seventy five and nineteen ninety. This was once the richest part of the richest city in the Middle East. Now it's the front line of the war in the Lebanon and there is great reluctance within the country to go back
to such a situation. We had an economic collapse in twenty nineteen.
Twenty twenty, Lebanon has grappled with its worst economic crisis in modern history. It's pushed tens of thousands of people into poverty and triggered the largest anti government protests in more than a decade.
Most Lebinese are worried about declining standard of living. I mean, there are many many problems in the country. One thing we certainly did not need was a new war. So there is a great deal of anger that Hasbala has once again carried Lebanon into a war with Israel. Now, with respect to the Lebinese army, we have to be realistic. For the Lebanese army to enter into a confrontation with Hasbulah. First, it does not have a decisive advantage that would allow
it necessarily to prevail in such a conflict. Number one. Number two, we have to understand that entering into a military confrontation with Hasbula would entail entering really into a military confrontation with the Shiah community. Although there are many Shiah who may not be happy today with what Hasbulah has done, there is also a growth feeding in the community that it is a community under siege. So I think this would be disastrous for the army and for the Lebanese state.
Michael. After the Gaza War, we had the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon that required that Hesbela be disarmed and its forces pushed further north of the de facto border, north of an area known as the Latani River. Has any of that actually happened.
This army has well lies different than what has happened up to now. The Lebanese army up to now has basically removed Heswolla weapons south of the Litani River, its emptied arms caches in that area. Maybe some still remain, but we have to understand that part of the problem is that the Lebanese army doesn't necessarily have good intelligence to identify all the arms caches of Heswola, but by and large the operation south of the Litani appears to
have been fairly successful in terms of disarmy. Is the Lebanese army going to enter into mainly Shia areas of Lebanon, where Hezbullah is well armed and capable of defending itself, to basically disarm its members and empty its strategic arms caches,
by which I mean missiles and longer term weapons. This would be a very different proposition than what we've seen up to now, and as I said earlier, I think the chances of succeeding would be much smaller, and I think the Lebanese state has to be aware that it would be a disaster if it could not win a confrontation with Heswala. It would be disastrous for the state, for the army, and it would only bolster Hesbula.
Coming up. Will Israel invade Lebanon? Michael? So we now have this situation with Israel bombing by route Hasbal of firing rockets at Israel. What does Israel say that it's trying to achieve in Lebanon, and what do you think they're doing. What's their real aim?
Well, this is a good question because up to now Eve and I have engaged in speculation, but it's very unclear what the Israelis want to do. We heard that Israel was mobilizing four hundred and fifty thousand soldiers for a possible entry into Lebanon, but this doesn't indicate that they're going to go through with that. There are Israeli units operating in Lebanon, advancing on certain areas, but it's
not a major engagement. So the Israelis have said, for example, that all the area south of the Lithani, and then they added to that all the area south of the Zaharani River, which is north of the Litani, should be cleared out by the population. But up to now there doesn't seem to be enough troops to really take these areas. I know that within Israel there is a big debate
on how far the Israeli military can go. We know this from you know, open press reports and commentaries by people who have been to Israel speaking to the military. But I really don't know what worries me and what I think we can say with a fair amount of certainty is that the Israelis will try to create a buffer zone, almost a killing zone, probably south of the Litani and basically say to the Lebanese we're staying in
this area until you can clear disarmed Hazwalda. But if the Lebinese state cannot disarm Hasbala, then suddenly what the Israelis are effectively saying is We're going to hold on to Lebanese territory and you can manage north of this territory. It's up to you, you know, figure it out yourself. And in which case Lebanon would be left with a major problem with the displaced population. You would have sectarian tensions because much of the Shia population would have to
basically live somewhere. The Lebanese state today is very weak, it's bankrupt, so you know, you would have a host of problems for the Lebanese state, which has very limited means to resolve.
Now the way this war is going, even if there's a ceasefire with Iran, do you think that the Lebanon Israel war that that front would continue And how do you see Israel using this crisis now? Is it an opportunity for them to try and totally redraw the regional security order.
Look, I'm very skeptical about the Israeli ability to reshape the region. My own reading of the war with Iran is that it has been a failure in terms of the stated objectives at the start of the war. It was the idea of the Iran nuclear program, the ballistic missile program, and Iran's relationship with its regional allies or proxies. None of these objectives, to my mind, have been achieved. But certainly the war is not over, so we have to see ultimately where it leads. But I think redrawing
is a big word. They are trying to create what they call buffer zones in Syria, in Lebanon, I think, in Lebanon, and in Gaza. But buffer zones mean what does it mean? It means basically, you enter into foreign countries or areas not controlled by Israel and you impose on these areas massive displacement destruction to create a buffer between your territory and any potential threat. Does this constitute
redrawing the map of the region? As I said, I think that the Israelis felt that they could do this by bringing down the Iranian regime. I think this has failed and I think the United States is now beginning to realize that this operation with Iran may not be a successful one, so we shouldn't overstate I think the Israelis are very ambitious. They would like to impose hegemony as much as possible on the region, but the lack of a clear outcome in Iran doesn't show really their
ability to do so. So I think that in the absence of this major transformation which they would like to impose, what we may see them do is fall back on sort of lesser objectives. But there is also a good chance that the Iranians will not stop bombing the Gulf States and Israel until there is acceptance that a ceasefire in Iran must also include a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Michael, thank you so much for joining us.
Thank you.
Tomorrow on seven am, one nation's first real test since it's stunning rise in the polls.
You know, these stupid politicians. What they go out and say they're in fear of one nation, callsed right across the whole country. Even this way, we've increased again in our polling.
Some are predicting that this weekend's at South Australian election will be hit by an orange wave of One Nation voters, but will those poll numbers convert into actual votes. We chat with the editor of in Daily, Belinda Willis, on how South Australians are feeling and what the state election results could tell us about One Nation's chances of winning more seats across the country. I'm Nicole Johnston. This is seven AM Catulator
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