Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had devastating consequences. Tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions of people have been displaced. Entire communities, towns, and cities have been flattened, and Russia now occupies significant sways of Ukrainian land. Nowifi's recent Middle East peace steal, Trump is saying Russia's next.
I think that President Putin wants to end the war, or it wouldn't be talking this way. I spoke to him yesterday for two and a half hours. We went through a lot of details. He wants to get it ended. I think that President Zelensky wants to get it ended.
Now we have to get it done. So what would it take to end the war? I'm Daniel James, and you're listening to seven am today. Associate professor of Political science and International Affairs at George Washington University David Saconi on the office Putin is making Trump and what they'll mean for the people of Ukraine. It's cheese day, ok, Tiober twenty one. David, thanks for speaking with me. Let's start with one of me. Zelensky's meeting with Trump last week.
What was Lensky's position going into this mating and what did he hope to get out of it.
I think Zelensky came to Washington with two main goals in mind. First, he wanted the United States to provide Tomahawk long range missiles and placed even greater pressure on Vladimir Putin and forced them to the peace table. Secondly, I think he was hoping to secure firm US security guarantees to ensure that if they could reach a peace dale in the future, Russia would actually be bound to its terms and not.
Defect shall only by speak at it.
The mood in Kiev seemed quite optimistic I head of Zelensky's trip to Washington. In fact, just before his plane took off, the speaker of Ukraine's parliament, it was LANs stefan Chuk, told the BBC that this was a very important historical moment, and he said the meeting would make clear that the world would see that Putin was not trustworthy and that decisive action, specifically the delivery of these Tomahawk missiles would be needed to end the war. Enforced Russia to the negotiating table.
We will not seize our struggle, for that would mean the end of our existence. We will not give up a single inch of land occupied by the enemy for our judo.
There was a real sense of hope that not only would Trump agree to the tomahawk request, but this stronger US backing for Ukraine's position would continue to develop, and that more and more military and economic support would be delivered from the West.
Why do you think the Ukrainians were feeling confident that I would get the tomahawks.
It's been fascinating to watch US Ukrainan relations evolve since that fateful February meeting back in the Oval Office, and really surprising about how vocal Trump has been in his support for Ukraine's interest over the last couple of months.
Do they want to have tomahawks going in that direction?
I don't think so.
I think I might speak to Russia about that.
Nor have he declared that Ukraine would receive the tomahawks if Putin wouldn't agree to return to peace talks.
Are you saying that you will speak to Putin first about it?
I might say, Look, if this war's not going to get settled, I'm going to send him tomahawks. I may say that tomahawk is an incredible weapon, very offensive weapon, and honestly, Russia does not need that.
They don't need that.
Yeah, and this is a potentially game changing missile system. So the fact that the United States was even discussing providing with Ukraine signaled that this was an important step forward in progressing and developing US military support for Ukraine. Tomahawks would allow Ukraine to not just tip the war in their favor, but target all sorts of critical military sites across Russia, from aviation bases to the factories producing the thousands of drones being sent into Ukraine and causing
so much damage. And the Kublin really understood the nature of this system and how threatening would be for its own ability to wage war.
Walls and Winsky was on his white to the US though. Putin cole Trump and talked to him one of the fine for two and a half hours. So what's not about that?
Cool? Well, unfortunately we never get a full readout, and I think there are still reports emerging about what was said. Trump always portrays these calls with Putin as positive and productive, but the specifics are just very unclear. We do know that Putin is demanding Ukraine's surrendered territory, that Russia does
not control in the Dundassen parts of Donetsk region. So Russia wants Zelensky to concede land that right now the Ukrainians have under their purview, and what he's offering in exchange is unattractive to Ukrainian's different parts of land that Russia controls that are destroyed and just not a real
quid pro quo. But we also know that Putin warned that it's the United States or its allies provided long range missiles such as the Tomwawks Ukraine, that US Russian relations would be harmed and that peace would not be
on the table. So the fact that Putin is bringing this up in the call means that the missiles are sitting in the front of his mind and he's concerned that the United States and Ukraine would go down that path, and his linking of the missile supply to this greater security arrangement the future of US relations means that the missiles are like a key bargaining chip. There were also some trade opportunities that were brought up, and you know, of course they Putin and Trump agreed to meet again
face to face, this time in Budapest. So that was one outcome of the call, but those are the kind of broad contours of what I imagine was a really unwieldy conversation for chu Hi hours.
The Ukrainian says. We said David had high hopes going into the meeting with Trump. Ultimately, though, what came out of it from a Ukrainian perspective.
Very little in terms of concrete commitments. That leaves Ukraine with much less leverage and a forthcoming peace talks. And it seems like Trump is moving towards this transactional approach to the Russian Ukraine conflict. He really wants to work out a deal. I think he really cares about the cameras catching him bringing peace to the world. He seems to be obsessed with ending wars as a way of winning respect from the international community for his unconventional foreign
policy approach. And as we all know, he cares deeply about winning some future Nobel Peace prize and doesn't really care how it gets done, who wins and who loses, as long as fighting quote unquote stops. So I think that optimism faded away, and now that there's even more skepticism that we're going to redo a lot of the same type of courtship that might not lead to any fruition or any real new military support.
And while these conversations and meetings were taking place, the wall continued what's been happening on the ground, while the leaders continued the negotiations.
Well, I think the big development of the last couple months is that both sides are targeting each other's critical infrastructure, specifically in the energy sector. So Ukraine has had a lot of success targeting refineries, especially those that are used to create gasoline for domestic consumption, and that's put a lot of pressure on supply for cars and basic transportation within Russia. It's a very visible sign of the conflict
coming home for the average Russian citizen. At the same time, Russia has been targeting many similar assets within Ukraine, especially in electricity production and gas storage. Winter is coming in Ukraine, and Russia wants Ukrainians to feel the pain of cold winter with intermittent supplies and blackouts. So it's not just the front lines that are hot right now. There are other types of targeting and destruction going on to kind of bring the war home, both in Ukraine and Russia.
And I think that maybe pushing both sides towards working towards the peace agreement because they realize that their citizens are desperate for a change, and desperate did not continue the war. More and more it seems that both sides are open to a ceasefire rather than fighting out the comfort to the end.
Coming up, the business deals being dangled by the Kremlin, David, you mentioned Trump Imputin discussed trade opportunities during their marathon phone call. We know that's the way Trump operates through making deals. So what's known about what Russia is offering the US what it wants in return.
Well, it's toyed with a number of different entreats to the Trump administration. Some are more military, such as extending the New Start Treaty and doing some nuclear non polluiferation and arms control, which Trump administration seems really keen on achieving. And then there's this other business element to it, which is Russia has floated giving US companies access to rare
earth and other mineral resources. And it also has toyed with the idea of joint gas, oil and gas projects in the Arctic, even trilaterally between Russia and China and the United States. So the idea of making money by going into business together has been proposed to Trump as another carrot in terms of what a grand bargain could entail. And then there's a frankly ridiculous proposition of building an undersea or rail tunnel linking Russia and the United States,
Alaska and Siberia. I think Elon Musk's boring company was even floated as one of the potential contractors to carry out this mega project. The economic value of something like
this is just impossible to really fathom. I mean, these are not in either country the most dynamic or innovative or even trade linked regions, So why we would need to invest billions of dollars beyond some kind of like symbolic partnership or an opportunity for graft on both sides, it's these economic opportunities are really designed to sweeten Trump's appetite for peace rather than actually build long lasting cooperation between the two countries.
And side, what should we expect from the upcoming meaning between Trump and Putin and Hungry?
Honestly very little. Last time I was on your show, I predicted that the trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin, and Lensky would never happen, And I think my prediction was born out. They have yet to meet in person, So given what happened in August in Alaska and the back and forth between Trump and Putin, I think Trump's team is going to be just as unprepared and get it
walked over by Putin and his staff. So I think it's going to be again a big photo app and a lot of blustering and a lot of optimism on Trump's part. But I'm doubtful that we're going to see any kind of concrete agreement or back and forth between Putin and Trump that would get us closer to ending this war.
So, Diavid, what do you think it would take to win this war?
I think the Tomahawks would be a first step. I think they would really put pressure on the Russian side and allow Ukraine to target some of the most destructive assets, the drone factories and some of the airplanes and aviation bases. I think would really help shield Ukrainian's domestic production and allow it to focus on areas where it could reclaim land from the Russian forces. I also think a stronger US and European commitment and financially and militarily across the board,
whether it be intelligence or artillery shells or tanks. Russia can be beaten, but it requires the worst to step up even more than it already has, and a just unclear whether or not the chumplemanstradition is willing to go that far.
David, thank you so much for your time.
Thank you for having me.
Also with the news, British police are investigating claims that Prince Andrew asked an officer to try and find negative information about a woman who accused him of sexual assault. The British paper The Mail Online reported that Prince Andrew gave a police officer Virginia Guphra's date of birth and social security number and asked him to dig up dirt
on her with a view to smearing her name. The reporting comes after Prince Andrew gave up his royal duties late last week following further revelations about his connections with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and the Victorian Premier has blamed a very small number of counterprotesters for violence in the streets of Malbourne over the weekend. Two police officers were hospitalized after trying to keep anti immigration protesters and counter
anti racism protesters apart. Meanwhile, counterprotesters accused Victoria police of violence, which injured and hospitalized some attendees. Police say counterprotesters through rotten fruit rocks and glass bottles to try and break through barricades. In response, they said they used flash bangs, pepper spray, and rubber bulls to keep the groups apart. You can listen to our recent report about police and protests. It's called Why Protests Are Getting More Dangerous and it's
in your feed right now. I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM. Thanks for listening.
O