My grandmother, which is my only surviving grandparent, is there, and my aunties and uncles and cousins and friends and second cousins and cousins once removed. A.
Rash Is Easy was born and raised in Tehran. He now lives in New York.
People very close to me are unfortunately experiencing this war, and of course my hometown Tehran and my country Iran. You know, they're like sibiling themselves. So to see them hurt and burning, it's very difficult. And that's the difficulty many Iranians have to live with now.
And does A Rash's family and friends suffer during the ongoing US and Israeli bombing? This week, Iran announced a new Supreme leader, Mochtuba Hamone, the son of the assassinated Ayotola Ali Hamone. But who's really running the country now and how is its elite Revolutionary Guard Corps or IIGC pulling the strings. I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM today Iranian journalist and author A rash Is Easy. On what direction could Run's elite armed forces take the country.
It's Thursday, March twelfth. Arash Is the appointment of Mochtaba Hamine a real signal that the Islamic Republic's not changing its course at all, and if anything, they could be hardening their position now towards the US, Israel and the West.
This is certainly the signal that they like to give, that many of the supporters of Monshtabahamani like to give. And this is how the hardline elements of the regime received the news. Unpromoted it. But the reality, Nicole is that Monsta is very unknown. We really don't know much about this guy. And the other reality is that he is going to have to share power with others.
He's not going to be a strong supremer at the beginning.
Does the selection of Mushtava means that you will have a even more hardline regime for for civil future. I think that's a possibility for sure, but it's in no way a foregone conclusion, and there are many reasons that meditate against that. It's entirely also possible that first of all, he might be killed, he might be sidelined, he might not be long in this world, and it's entirely possible that Iran will be taken into a different direction. I
am humbled in my prognosis and predictions. Iran has a way of humbling you, after all, I can't lie. He was not my first pick. If you asked me a few years ago, I wouldn't believe that he will be the supremeier.
Yet here we are.
One of the things, though, that he seems to really have going in his favor is the strong relationship with the IIGC, the elite forces. How much of how this war progresses is really down to them. Who's really in charge now?
The Revolutionary Guards is a powerful force that controls much of Iran's politics, economy, and military. What it is not, however, is a unified force. It is very much a constellation of a few different networks, each of which has its hands in different places. So there are elements in the RGC who love to deal with Russia and China. There are elements who might prefer some sort of a normalization
with the West. There are elements who have different opinions on how much internally repressive the regime should be or socially so. While it is true that different parts of the Revolutionary Guards hold much power now, people like Alibov speak of the Parliament. Others spoken to him personally. You know, you meet certain type of people who are you can be clear, they have always just wanted to be their country top one leader, and he's the one of them.
He now effectively runs the war effort. Mushtabo was in many ways his candidate for supreme leadership. That's certainly what his supporters told me in the last few years. So you know they have the power now, but how they will use it is still an open question.
Are you getting any sense though about what the IRGC wants to do next, how they want this war to go.
This is a very good question because it also brings me to talk about the fact that you know, there are different ideological directions, but there are also different sort of tactical directions, right, so sometimes what to do next is not about how much you hate the vest or love the vest, but about what you seem as the
more tactically right answer. For example, there are many across the ero own political spectrum who believe Yourn should have nuclear weapons and this is a tactical strategic consideration for them to just believe this is a way to defend their own Now, where are they going to take the war? I mean that is the medium d other question, and of course it's not entirely in their hand either, because it's in the hand of US and Israel.
Perhaps the question.
For US and Israel is actually a clearer question, which is to say, when is it an off for them? For example, US can say, but we've degraded the regime's military capabilities so that they won't be a threat outside their borders for the next five to ten years.
As President Trump declared yesterday, we're crushing the enemy in an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force. We will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated. But we do so, we do so on our timeline and at our choosing.
Or they might say no, no, you cannot have someone like Moshtaboy in charge. We need to make sure the leadership changes again. We need to hit them hard, hit them again until this leadership changes. For the is Nomok Republic, including the revolutionary regards to correctly running the war.
Effort question is similar in some ways, which is to.
Say what kind of an end do they want to get and what kind of a deal do they want? Do they want as status quo antebellum basically, do they want to go back to where things there on February twenty eight.
We don't see any reason why we should negotiate with the US, But then we negotiated with them twice, and every time they attacked us the middle of negotiations, so there is no request for a satisfied by US.
Do they want something more ambitious?
Do they want a process in which they can hope for sanctions to be lifted, or do they want to really become the North Korea dug in their heels five to the last battle without giving up dates? But if I was to guess, I would say that in order to preserve their own privileges, they're more likely to find some sort of a middle ground at some point. You know, everybody's missiles finishes at some.
Point coming up the struggle for power that's ahead.
A rash.
You're in a rare position of having political sources inside a run. So are you getting any sense that are starting to run out of options and resources and that it could eventually kind of deal.
If I was to guess, and I told you it's a humbling thing trying to guess things in Iran, they'll find some sort of a deal that would put us back for a while, put Israel back for a while, find a way for them to live with the region, and perhaps then they would make the other changes. But this is not just about us and Israel, as importantly are Iran's Arab.
Neighbors who have not been Many of them have been attacked by the regime. They're very worried about the regime. We are not part of this war. We don't want to be a part of that war. We don't want to be dragged into it.
But defending our country will remain a principle that will never change. And in fact, if you're an Arab nation, it is an Arab majority region or twenty two Arab countries in this region. Arabs have seen in the last little while that non Arab powers have dominated the division. Israel, Iran and Turkey have nominated the division. They've dominated them by their military actions and by forces in the Arab politic that are loyal to them like Hesbolaine eleven and others.
And this is a very unsatisfactory situation to be in. So you know, what they want is to make sure the region is safe. The trade goes on, leaving the standards of people in the GCC countries are used to will be preserved, and for that, you know they are going to have to contain Iran and deal with Iran, and Iran.
Would have to find a way to live with them.
So this is all the considerations that the IG and Iranian leadership have to take as they figure out their plans for the continuation of the war.
All Rash. One of the things that really struck me over the last few days was that moment when Iran's President Massu Pezeshkian came out and apologized to the Gulf States for attacking them.
I must apologize on my own behalf, on behalf of Iran, to the neighboring countries that are attacked by Iran. The Interim Leadership Council agreed yesterday that no more attacks will be made on neighboring countries.
Why did he do that, because it seemed a pretty big u turn.
Well, this is a very fascinating point that really shows that important elements in the regime are really worried about the future of.
The relations with GCC countries.
You have to remember that Saudi Arabia in a not two distant future had cut diplomatic relations with Iran other Arab countries had followed. It took tremendous diplomatic effort by Iran to re establish these ties. With the mediation of China, Tehran and Read established their ties in twenty twenty three. You don't had to slowly rebuilt its link with the Imaratis with other countries.
Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain will establish embassies, exchange ambassadors and begin the cooperate and work together so strongly to cooperate as partners.
And even in the aftermath of the Abraham Accords, the Trump mediated deal that brought diplomatic creation between Israel and some Arab countries, Uron had been able to rebuild these ties with Arab countries a little. And now it's so all of those threatened, and a message very possession was almost a panicked way of trying to say, well, don't
worry that everything is done. But of course he kind of got a huge pushback from inside the regime, even figures close to him effectively to walked back on his comments. So it didn't work out so well. But it does tell me, Nicole that inside the regime there is serious worries about the future of Iran's relationship with its neighborhood.
Do you see any sign that the next chapter in Iran will be any less brutal or repressive than the one that we've had for almost the last forty years.
You know, you have to maintain some sort of optimism and hope. Antonio Grams Sheet, the Italian thinker, used to say, you know, you have to have optimism in the will, pessimism and analysis. So you know you shouldn't sugar coult realities, but you know you should have this will that you know,
from bad situations, better things can come. I do have hope that Harmone's worse, of Harmone's zealied policies, of antimer Lachanism, of wanting to destroy Israel, of wanting to impose this Puritanian, puritanical Islamist vision and the Iranian people, that this will be slowly discarded by whoever wins the power struggles coming
in Islamic Republic. And while I'm not optimistic that we'll get a democratic transition or anything of the source anytime soon, I think it is possible that we will get, you know, less repressive condition and hopefully a more open Iran. But I mean even that sounds pretty dreamy right now where we are, where the abbys of a terrible war, many innocent people are dying, and the political conditions don't look good.
It looks like people with guns, the worst sorts of factions of the islam Republic are in charge of things. But one has to maintain sort of as I said, optimism of will. And I'll tell you this NiCl. Iran's battle of democracy goes back at least our first victory arrived in nineteen oh sixth in the constitutional revolution that we got our first parliament, and that's more than one
hundred and twenty years ago. And women rights, environmental justice, you know, all the other causes that matter, and we should keep fighting for those and for a better Iran. And this is not something that should have stopped, regardless of how many senior or junior is in charge or someone else.
You know, these fights should not stop. They should go on and they will go on.
Ah Rash, thanks so much for talking to us today.
Of course, thank you so much, thanks for having me.
Also in the news, newly elected Nationals leader Matt Canavan says we need more Australian everything, including babies, farming and fossil fuel powered barbecues. The right wing Queensland senator beat out Bridget McKenzie and Kevin Hogan in a three way for the top job. Darren Chester will be his deputy as the new leadership tries to fend off for surging. One nation and one of the seven Iranian soccer players given asylum in Australia has decided to return to Iran
after all. According to Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, the Iranian government now says the women will be welcomed hoe and need not fear punishment, accusing Australia of frightening the players and pressuring them to seek asylum. I'm Nicole Johnston. This is seven am. Thanks for listening.