I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM. This week, the Albanezi government has been forced to confront a growing sense of instability with fresh warnings from the IMF about the global economy, including the potential impact on Australia. It places new pressure on Treasurer Jim Chalmers ahead of the budget as the government deals with a fuel suppli scare that pulled the Prime Minister back to the country in the middle of an overseas mission to secure supplies for the nation.
This is an incident that obviously is regrettable, particularly given the timing in which it has occurred, but the.
Advice as labor tries to steady nerves. The opposition is pushing a hard line of migration, with Angus Taylor reaching for politics that feels both familiar and deliberately divisive, so much so that it prompted a former Prime Minister to release a scathing statement.
Kidding said Angus Taylor marks himself out as a political leader unworthy of the leadership of a party that has managed Australia for the greater part of the last century.
Today Press Gallery veteran pau Bon Jorno on the economic anxiety hanging over the government, the oppositions in sandiary picture, migration and how both sides are trying to define the moment. It's Saturday, April ad.
Paul.
This week we had a pretty dire warning from the IMF that a global recession is looming, as Jim charm has met with economic ministers in DC. How bad is it looking for Australia and for the government.
Well, Daniel I got to say, it's looking very bad for everybody, Australia and the government, and we're all in the one boat. In fact, I don't think we can make a distinction between the government and Australia here. Albanizi pointed out that what we've got is the biggest global spike that's ever happened in Australian history when it comes to oil and energy.
Of course we're not immune. This is a global spike. It's the biggest global spike that has ever happened in history, and that's had an impact on inflation and on the price of fuel right around the world.
And if we want to get a bit of an insight into what the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank thinks these impacts will be, it put out its world economic outlook during the week.
Of course, if the shock gets larger, if the disruptions get more severe, then we could get more of an inflection shark that would last more Internet under it.
And it says the United States Israel war on Iran risks creating quote an energy crisis of unprecedented scale that could end in global recession. And Jim Chalmers doesn't quibble with the assessment of the IMF that the situation could see Australia with higher inflation than most advanced economies.
I think of a more sort of complex time in which to prepare a federal budget in recent memory. Paul, how much pressure does the IMF warning and the war put on the treasure ahead of next month's budget and how does it change what we can expect?
All of those questions are extremely relevant and Charmers I think, summed it up pretty well when he said during the week.
This is a very serious, very dangerous time for the world. Now Australia is better placed and better prepared than a number of other countries, but we won't be spared the fallout from this very substantial economic shock.
And the world, the Bank, the IMF is warning that incomes that is national incomes. Personal incomes will obviously fall. Now this will be made worse if the usual prescription that we get from the Reserve Bank and central banks around the world is that if inflation is running out of control, you up interest rates. Life more miserable, especially for borrowers. And by borrowers, we don't only mean people borrowing to fund their mortgage, to fund their home, but
borrowers in business, small business. This can have well a devastating impact. And during the week I was talking to a quite senior advisor to the Prime Minister who said that Albanezi is well aware that walking this tight rope is in a danger of poking the bear of the Reserve Bank. That if the Reserve Bank judges that the treasure of the government's got it wrong, they'll go harder
with interest rates. So it's more than a dilemma, it's a real fix that the government and the country is in and I guess we just have to hang on to our seats for this very wild ride.
At the heart of all the pressure that's on the government at the moment is the fuel supply situation, which was exacerbated this week. One of only two Australian oilron finals was engulfed in a massive fire good afternoon.
The impact of afire at the Carrio Oil refinery in Geelong is expected to have serious consequences. The blaze is now extinguished after a small gas league sparked an explosion late last night.
The PM flew home early from Malaysia to address the situation. What do you make of the fact that he rushed back to stand in front of the ore refinery and talk about it. Couldn't have Richard Miles just done that. It's seeing as he was a local member and the deputy Prime Minister.
Look, Anthony Albinizi is acutely aware of just how perilous the politics of this situation is. He cannot afford as the Prime Minister. The government cannot afford to look like it's sitting back, shrugging its shoulders and telling the rest of us to eat cake. That's why Albanizi embarked on personal diplomacy, going up indu Asia to personally argue our case to our major fuel suppliers in Singapore, Brunei and Malaysia.
Sure our diplomats could have done it. The High Commissioners could have knocked on the doors, but when the Prime Minute turns up, it gives it weight and it also says that we're taking this extremely seriously. And I think that's why he flew directly back from Malaysia into Geelong this week to say, I'm here. I want assurances that what is happening here has been dealt with in the best possible way.
Do you think, Paul, that if the Prime Minister in the government is not seen as dealing with this situation appropriately, that Albanezi recognizes that this is a potential government rerecord, Well.
It is indeed, and I think that also we have seen historically governments lose elections rather than oppositions win them, and you can't necessarily count on the opposition continuing to be as hopeless as it has been in the last year or so.
Through all of this, Paul, the PM, of of course, is trying to keep everyone calm, which was the aim of Albanese's highly ridiculed national address a couple of weeks ago. You've got some inciting tale on what was going on there. What have you heard?
Well, what I've heard of, which which was quite interesting, really, was that Australia's two biggest supermarket change Coals and Woolworths were very worried in the very early days, the first week of the crisis, that a run on supermarket supplies would leave them incapable of keeping up with the demand. So they came to Albanizi and they said, look, we've got to calm the place down. And that was the real purpose I was told of Albanzi going with that
bland statement. Now a lot of people say, look, if you're going to have an address to the nation, you've got to say I'm the prime minister and the world is about to end. Otherwise, don't bother you know, otherwise, just buy an ad, Whereas the real point was, I'm here, I'm the Prime minister, and the current situation doesn't demand panic because Albanizi knows, as we all know, how long this lasts and what its impact will be. He's not trying to pretend that we haven't got a crisis on
our hands. But the best way to manage it is we've got supplies. Now, we're confident that we have even more than we usually have for another month at least, so let us just do prudent business as usual. And that was explained to me as the reason why we got rather bland appearances from the Prime Minister.
Coming up dumb, bigotry, offering a fantasy, poor keating, scathing takedown.
Paul.
The Opposition's had a very different focus this week, immigration by discrimination and that's not something that I'm putting a spin on. That saying is Taylor's own words.
So, ladies and gentlemen, Australia has a non discriminatory immigration program. We don't discriminate based on nationality, race, gender or faith. But for an immigration program to work in the national interest, it must discriminate based on values.
What did you make of the Liberal Party's migration policy, Well, what.
I made of it was that it was an act of sheer desperation and in grave danger of damaging a consensus in this country that essumes racism, that looks for multicultural harmony, that looks for national unity rather than cheap shots and appealing to what you might call base prejudice.
Not everyone wanting to migrade to Australia has a noble intent. Not everyone wanting to my grade to Australia will be a net benefit to Australia. Indeed, some will be a net train.
Every populist racist button that could be pushed was pushed by Angus Taylor in a way that some of the Liberal backben said to me went further than Susan Lee would even have gone, and she was beginning to skate quite close to the win there. And it's all in the context of the fact that the Liberal Party in the upcoming Pharaoh by election in a few weeks time
are running third. One Nation and an independent candidate are vying to win that by election, and the Liberals are desperate to claw back as much support from people who have decided to abandon the coalition or the Liberals for One Nation. In other words, Taylor is trying to outdo Pauline Hansen, and there's plenty of evidence in state and federal elections past that that won't work.
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out of Phara, given that's a seat that relies heavily on immigration for its workforce, and some aspects of that seat exactly the ghost of Christmas Island past. John Howard was in the front row. How Howard esked was Taylor's speech well.
Angus Taylor even came to paraphrasing a famous battle cry of John Howard in the two thousand and one election.
To those who say we'll be in breach of the refugee Convention, will decide who deserves protection and the circumstances in which that protectionis now.
Taylor made a big thing of saying that his immigration policies Australian values placed. But it seems that Taylor is prepared to dump the humanitarian values that underpin the UN conventions that he here is blithely promising to discard.
Speaking of ghosts PM's past, Paul Keating came out with some withering words for Angus Taylor. Can you take us through some of what he had to say?
Well, Keating was appalled enough to release a withering statement against the Taylor immigration policy prescriptions. He likens them to Donald Trump's crackdown in the United States, the vetting of people's social media at the border, the threat to kick people out who don't somehow measure up to the Australian values statement. Keating says Taylor for base political reasons, and this is an interesting tack from the former Labor Prime Minister.
He says, for base political reasons, Taylor has elected to walk away from the best instincts of the Liberal Party, the party of Robert Menzies, of Harold Holt, of Malcolm Fraser, Andrew Peacock, Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull. All of these leaders played a part in opening Australian borders to refugees. Fraser famously with the Vietnamese Holt began the dismantling of
the White Australia policy. Keating said that by adopting racism, with its shabby appeal to differentiation and primal instincts, Angus Taylor marks himself out as a political leader unworthy of the leadership of a party that has managed Australia for the greater part of the last century. He says racism is not simply immoral and abhorrent, it is absurd, as if somehow a person's race makes one person more worthy,
more human than another. Kidding says the blight of Pauline Hansen is that her dumb bigotry offers a fantasy, the fantasy that Australia in the modern age can return to a monoculture.
What's the motivation behind this? Francus Talen, how do you think his hardline approach to migration will play for the Liberal parties, there's a smart move if they want to win back the Teal seats in the cities, how is this going to play out in those seats, Paul.
Well, precisely. And it's interesting that Zarie Steger, one of the Teal independents, was very outspoken in her criticism of this policy.
It was hateful and divisive and it's a dog whistle to one nation voters.
I can't see that in appealing to the extreme right of the spectrum, how you're then going to bring back the alienated moderates and those who are more at the progressive wing of the Liberal party. It just doesn't.
Compute, Paul. There's a lot that doesn't compute right now. But thank you so much for your time.
Thank you, Daniel Bye.
Seven Am is an ali show from Solstice Media. It's made by Aniicus Bastow, Ariel Richards, Chris Dangate, Crystal Color, Nicole Johnston, Travis Evans, Zomfecho and me Daniel James. Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Umbelop Bodier. Thanks so much for listening to seven I Am this week. Have yourself a great weight, kend