From Schwarz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven Am. It was the biggest escalation between Hezbola and Israel since October seven. On Sunday, Hesbola launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel, and Israel said it hit more than forty targets in Lebanon and isn't done yet. The attacks come as talks of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel continue with no sign of an outcome. Today World Editor of the Saturday paper, Jonathan Perlman on whether the Middle
East is headed for all out war. It's Tuesday, August twenty seven, Jonathan. Since the outbreak of war in October last year, we've seen the Israeli army and hez boler in on attacking each other. There is this pattern of attack, stand down, stand off, repeat. But the last few days seem to have been different. We've seen the biggest escalation in this dispute so far. Tell me what happened.
Yes, that's right, Ruby, We've just seen really the biggest exchange in what has been a year of sort of an almost war between Israel and Hezbollah. That's on Israel's northern border and the south of Lebanon, and bearing in mind that the accounts on both sides differ, but what we understand to have happened is that Israel launched a preemptive strike against an attack from his Bolah, and the preemptive strike was massive. It involved one hundred Israeli Air
Force jets hitting targets across southern Lebanon about forty targets. Meanwhile, Heasbolla launched some three hundred or a little bit more than three hundred rockets and drones. It looks like many of them were intercepted, but it's not clear exactly what managed to get through, but Hisbolla claimed some success. Hans and Lamalia its leader Hassan Israela, gave a speech refusing Israel's claims to have thwarted this attack. What they were aiming at was a compound outside Tel Aviv, which is
the headquarters of Mossad and Israeli intelligence. So his Balla said that its attack was a retaliation against an assassination in Beirut several weeks ago by Israel against a s Hesbola commander. But even despite the massive scale of this, it still seems to have been a contained escalation so you know, once again seeing the biggest escalation in this almost year long war, but it still looks like neither side once in all out war.
Can you just unpick that tension for me, this idea that neither Hesbala or the Israeli military want to go to war, yet they continue to attack each other, which puts them on a potential path to that very outcome. So if they don't want what why are they doing what they're doing.
For Israel, its strategic doctrine in the Middle East is all about deterrence. It believes it's surrounded by enemies and threats, and that.
Its greatest form of defense effectively is to deter those threats and to make anyone that attacks it think that they'll either be destroyed or face much stronger response and more damage than anything they can infl And really that deterrence effect collapsed on October seven when Hamas, which was considered sort of the weakest in some ways of those threats, was able to launch this surprise attack.
It took Israel by complete surprise.
And Hamas effectively occupied parts of southern Israel for several days. I mean, this is something unprecedented in Israeli history and was really devastating to Israel's sense of its own security and to its own basic strategic approach to the region, which is this deterrence effect. And so Israel is now trying to rebuild that, and particularly against Hezbollah, it's trying to show that it can preemptively strike against his Bolla, that it can attack and assassinate senior commanders, as we
saw it do recently in Beirut. Now, if we look at Hesbolla, what it wants to do is show that it can strike Israel, hurt Israel. Hesbola also says that it is acting in solidarity with Hamas and with the Palestinians in Gaza, and that's why it started to launch attacks after October seven.
And as these attacks happen, life becomes more and more dangerous for those people who live in Lebanon and those who are near the border in northern Israel. These are the people who stand to lose their homes and their lives if things escalate. So how are they responding to this and what are their lives like at the moment.
Yeah, that's right.
And this war has been going on for almost a year and it's taken a huge coal. So about one hundred and twenty thousand Elevenese people have been evacuated from southern Lebanon since October seven, and about sixty thousand people
have been evacuated from northern Israel. There's been huge damage on both sides, just basic damage from all the bonding, and then there's been a huge death toll on the Lebanese side, about four hundreds BOLLA fighters and one hundred and twenty six civilians are believe to have been killed. On the Israeli side, about twenty four civilians and nineteen soldiers.
And there is growing frustration in Israel's north with the response of the government, and so you have people they're you know, some council heads recently announced that they're cutting ties with the government.
Some of them want Israel to take on Hezbollah the way that.
It has against Hamas in the south, and they feel neglected by the government. You know, for people inside Lebanon, they've either had to evacuate or face huge risks. Lebanon doesn't have the same sort of infrastructure that Israel has, bomb shelters and iron dime and missile shields, So you have tens of thousands of people living this precarious existence in southern Lebanon. Now they're facing this situation where their fate now is in the hands of Hezbola and what moves Hesbola decides to.
Take next.
Coming up after the break, just how powerful is Hesbola, So, Jonathan, let's talk about Hezbola a bit more. It's been described as a state within a state. It's Lebanon's strongest military and political force, even if it's not the official force of Lebanon at this moment in time. How powerful is the group?
So militarily, Hezbola is very powerful.
It's the most powerful non state actor in Lebanon and probably the most powerful non state military in the world. It claims to have one hundred thousand fighters, but analysts seem to think it has closer to around forty to fifty thousand fighters. But it's believed I have about one hundred and fifty to two hundred thousand missiles, some of these high precision missiles that could strike targets, you know, specific targets in Tel.
Aviv and across Israel.
Capacity much much greater than Hannas has in Gaza. And then it's also a political movement. It's a Shia movement. It's strongly backed by Iran and has had strong backing from the Assad regiam in Syria.
It also sent.
About seven thousand and five is over to support Assad during the civil war, which meant that it's got battle hardened soldiers.
Lebanese Shia group Hasbula is dedicated to support the Acid regime and its violence against the Syrians. A top us of the United States on Thursday imposed new sanctions on hesbila's leader, Hassanzrala and two other figures in the armed group over their support for Syrian President Bashal Ascaid's regime.
What began as an uprising against the regime of Basha our side has become a regional proxy war and one of the main combatants supporting our side is has Bolah, the Lebanese Schiete militant group.
It's also you know, it's labeled as a terrorist organization by many countries around the world because it's been involved in suicide bombings both in Lebanon and outside Lebanon, and it has a history of.
That going back to the civil war inside Lebanon.
So Hisbola is a strong force that if and all that war were to develop could really bring Israel to a standstill and would also have devastating consequences across Lebanon.
And you said earlier, Jonathan, that Hezbollah is acting in solidarity with Hamas. So to what extent should we view the two groups as an allied force in the conflict in the Middle East? Right now? How close are they?
Both?
Hebola and Hama are backed by Iran and are members of what Iran calls its axis of resistance, and that includes the Hutis in Yemen.
Groups in Iraq.
And these are sort of proxy militant groups across the region that Iran backs and that Iran hopes will act in its own interests. But they also have varying levels of independence from Iran. So, for instance, his Bolla is closer to Iran than Hamas, is coordinates more closely with Iran, particularly its military wing. His Bolla has backed Hamas in Gaza and responded after October seven in solidarity with Gaza.
And there have been meetings between the leadership of his Bollah, Hamas and Iran in Beirut and also in Tehran, so they meet and coordinate on Israel, but then they also have differences. So for instance, his Bollah backed Pasad in Syria, whereas Hamas was opposed to a Satin Syria where Sunni rebels were fighting against Assad.
So the relationship is complicated, Okay.
So understanding that, what we do know is that Israel and Hezbola want to avoid war. So if that is the case, what would allow each side to claim a kind of victory, what would end this escalation before it became a war?
Yeah, So I think for Hisbola, it can walk away from this contained escalation and claim victory because Hisbola can present itself as a force that stood up to Israel, stood in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, and attacked.
Israel during the war in Gaza, and it.
Can claim that it is acting in Lebanon's interests, and you know, it calls itself the party of Resistance, that it's resisting Israel on Lebanon's behalf. For Israel, it's much harder really to claim any victory against his Bolla, because you know, Israel relies on this deterrence against threats such as his Bolla. And you know, in the last year, really the North of Israel is no longer a functioning part of the country, so it's going to be harder
for Israel to send a message of victory. On the other hand, it's actually been more successful against his Bolla than it has against Hamas in some ways. You know, it's shown that its intelligence has been highly effective, that it's been able to do these pinpoint assassinations of his Bola leaders in a way that.
It hasn't been able to do against Hamas.
And also, you know, it's launched this attack on Gaza that's devastated much of Gaza, and that also becomes part of it deterrence and a message to his Bola about what we might see if there's a complete war against fIF Bolla. But there's also the question then about what is a victory against Hamas look like, because the war is still going on there with an enormous death toll in Gaza. Benjamin Antennahu has claimed that he wants a total victory in Gaza. It's still not clear exactly what
that would look like. Ultimately, you know, Israel would need the hostages to come back, and it would probably need to kill the leader of Hamas, Sinoir. He has proven very elusive without being able to capture him or kill him or end his leadership of Hamas. It's hard to see how Israel can claim a total victory, but it may have to set off something short of that, and certainly there are a strong care within Israel for.
It to do that.
Jonathan, thank you for your time.
Thanks Ruby.
Also in the news today, thousands of CFMU members are expected to attend rallies across the country today. The protests come after the government announced will be placing all branches of the Union under administration for a minimum of three years.
Attorney General Mark Dreyfus made the announcement on Friday morning, declaring it was in the public interest after revelations by the Nine newspapers of corruption and links to criminal games and Musician and former Federal Arts Minister Peter go Barrett will lead an independent review into the Melbourne Symphony Orchestra.
The organization has recently come under scrutiny after it canceled the upcoming performance of an acclaimed pianist who dedicated a song to journalists who have died while covering the war in Gaza. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. Thanks for listening.