America's Truckin Network -- 10/7/25

the outer Banks. Which given the fact that we're in the middle of the hurricane season from June one until November thirtieth, we have been doing pretty well so far. So right now there are no tropical storms tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time, so that is very good news. What is going on, you know, of course we've got the government shut down, But what's interesting is some of the news that's coming out as a result

of that. Let's go through this. We have certain economic reports that come out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other organizations attached to the government, which we're supposed to come out on Thursday and Friday, but they've been delayed as a result of the shutdown. But there's been some economic news that has been coming out which is interesting how that's gathered, and we'll talk about that in

a minute. Here a report shows hiring at the lowest level since two thousand and nine as economists turned to alternate data during shutdown blackout. Unemployment changed little in September, while layoff and hiring rates both slowed. According to a separate labor market report on the last third, the jobless level barely moved at four point three four percent, according to the relatively new set of data indicators compiled by the Chicago Federal Reserve. Now they stop here for a second.

The Federal Reserve employs twenty three thousand people. Twenty three thousand people. What in the hell do all those people do? Why aren't they gathering all this economic data? Why do they depend on the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Like I said twenty three, what do they do? They hire a bunch of these economists and they're supposed to know what are they sitting around on their thumbs all day? I mean, nobody talks about what they do. Nobody talks about what

information they gather. And so if they are gathering this information and they claim, as they say, is all this talk about Donald Trump trying to replace lion Jerry Power? And they said, whoa. You know if he does that, you know that's going to put into question the independence of the Federal Reserve. And when Donald Trump tries to nominate somebody to the Federal Reserve, all of a sudden, it's, oh,

he's trying to make the Federal Reserve more conservative. Well, you don't think Joe Biden when he added people to the Federal Reserve, or Bill Clinton or Obama that they weren't somehow more liberal. As a matter of fact, Austin Goldsby, you may have heard that name. He was one of the chief economic advisors to Obama. He is now head of the Federal Reserve in Chicago for that region. So

that's a political appointment. And let me tell you some of the liberal crap that came out of his mouth during the Obama administration and advisory as far as the Obama administration was very questionable. So this whole idea of the Federal Reserve quote being independent, is independent to a certain extent except when a Republican is nominating people. So if the Federal Reserve is capable of coming up with these statistics, why aren't And of course supposedly they're independent.

Bureau of Labor statistics is the Department of Treasury is under the Department of Treasury. So with that being part of the federal government, part of whatever president is in office at that time, should they question that or do we have just a bunch of bureaucrats in that area that really no matter who's in that department, which generally is more liberal attainted that, how independent is that information?

So continue on here. Again, all this data is compiled by the Chicago Federal Reserve, which again is headed by Austin Goldsby, who is a liberal. I'm not sure how much control he has over this, but again that's worth noting that represented a little change from August though the unemployment rate four point three four percent was just one one hundredth of a percentage point away from moving up

to four point four percent. Now, you don't have to be really good at math to figure out that four point three four percent plus point one percent would take that up to four point three five percent. How is that one hundredth of a point away from four percent. Really, do they not understand math? Maybe that's probably the problem with some of this economic data that we don't have anybody that knows how to add, to subtract and multiply

and divide. Four point three four percent is not a one hundredth of a percentage point away from four point four percent. It's one hundredth of a point away from four point three five percent. But anyway, let's continue on here. Four point four percent the highest level since October of twenty twenty one, which is false. In September, the Central Bank District announced it would be releasing its own dashboard

of labor market indicators. That also includes the layoff rate, which was little change monthly at two point one percent, and the hiring rate, which moved closer lower to forty five point two percent, down four ten percent from August. So if there are all these other agencies out there, We've got the ADP payroll report that comes out that

people rely on. We have the Challenger Challenger Christmas and whatever that hiring firm A Challenger Great Challenger Gray and Christmas is the name of the organization, and they have economic data that they track as far as hirings and firings because they do a lot of recruiting and so on, so they are aware of it. Why can't these organizations prepare and present this economic data rather than the Bureau

of Labor Statistics and with a bloated bureaucracy. And again, if these people are out in the marketplace, if they are dealing with it on a day to day basis, wouldn't you think that their information is a little bit more accurate. And another little thing is that as we get into this economic data, as we looked at that Bureau of Labor Statistics report where that one lady got fired as a result of you know, in the previous

year they missed the employment. They over reported jobs by what was it, eight hundred and eighteen thousand, and then this year they overestimated that by nine hundred and eleven thousand. In other words, they overestimated the number of jobs that

were created by nine hundred and eleven thousand. Now, again that report was at the from March of last year until March of this year, but the data came out in August, so they missed that by that much, almost a million jobs that they missed or overestimated over the last couple mile. Actually, if you add the two years together, that's almost one point eight million jobs that were over reported. So if they're that bad at gathering that data, why

is that data being relied upon? And little known fact, it's interesting that since Donald Trump has been in office, and during his first term as well, when he talks about certain things, what he's doing is pulling the curtain back on everything that is being done. It's almost like the Wizard of Oz, you know, all of a sudden, the dog goes up and pulls the curtain back and finds out that the wizard is actually somebody behind a curtain controlling all the levers, and it's really just a

man and not some grand wizard. Now, so when he pulls the curtain back, we learn certain things. We learn that these data from the federal government is based on surveys. They send out these surveys they ask for people to respond to that the response rate, you know, when they're supposed to be done by a certain date, they get

about a sixty percent result. That's why in the following month you see these adjustments because they get more data in after the due date and then they usually have a third revision because then they get in more of these surveys. So if you're depending upon people and it's not it's not forced, it's not mandated that they report, So all of this report is based on people returning surveys, so it's it's not really scientific and obviously not very accurate.

We'll pick this up on the other side. I'm Kevin Gordon, america'struck In Network seven hundred WLW.

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depending on them to release this data. Elsewhere in the labor market, outplacement firm Challenger, Great and Christmas reported that layoff announcements declined by thirty seven percent in September, and we're down twenty six percent from the same month a year ago. So again, the layoff announcements declined by thirty seven percent, So that means that there's a lot less companies that are talking about laying people off to the tune of about thirty seven percent and down twenty six

percent from the same month a year ago. However, the year to date level of planning furloughs as the highest since twenty twenty, the year of the COVID plandemic I'm sorry, pandemic. According to this Challengers said announced cuts have totaled nine hundred and forty six thousand, basically nine hundred and forty

six thousand through the first three quarters. The figure already is twenty four percent higher than all of twenty twenty four, which kind of discounts or pulls into question what they said in the previous paragraph where they set it declined thirty seven percent in September, and we're down twenty six percent from the same month a year ago, So now are they talking about then on a yearly basis, it's still already twenty four percent higher than all of twenty

twenty four. Again, that has to do with company these uh switching, companies looking being a little bit leaner, companies not hiring as much, companies if people are being what people are quitting, are not being replaced. Are some of these layoffs? Are they tying in some of the federal employees that have been laid off, because that's a whole different bucket, But they don't go into that here. And the fact that they are able to come up with this data and present it, Why are we then dependent

upon an agency of the federal government doing that? Why don't we Why doesn't the federal government outsource some of this information to other more reputable organizations, pay a fee, pay a fee to get that information or something, or allow these companies to just go ahead and gather the data and present it, because again it is their job.

It is them that are doing more outplacement. They are doing more higher you know, doing the recruiting, and so they would have a lot more accurate data in order to present and if they're trying to keep their business afloat, they would want to have accurate data. If you're in the government and you're off well, like we saw, we had the said the lady that was in charge of Bureau of Labor Statistics, she blew that number by eight hundred and eighteen thousand jobs the previous year, kept her job,

all the people underneath her kept their job. Then all of a sudden, the following year they doubled down more than increased that by another nine hundred and eleven thousand, and then everybody was surprised when Donald Trump said this person needs to be fired. And they said, well, you know, now you're messing with the independence of this agency. Who cares about the independence of this agency If they're giving you crappy data, and they blamed They said, well, you know,

a lot of the information is coming from other sources. Well, I'm sorry. If you're ahead of the organization and the people underneath you, you're dependent upon them doing their job, and then the people under them doing their job and giving you the information, and then the information comes up

and you're the one that reports it. I would think that as the head of that organization and say, you better damn well be sure that all this information that you're giving me, because I don't want to look bad and I don't want to lose my job. Maybe you ought to lose your job, and I get somebody else in here that'll give us the accurate data. But again, in these bureaucracies, it's so difficult to get people fired, to get people laid off, or to you know, to

streamline some of these agencies. And if they're not doing these jobs properly, then why are they even there in that position to begin with? And I go back to the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve has twenty three thousand employees. Now Ron Paul when he ran Paul's father, he was

a congressman from Texas. He always talked about and introduced bills to audit the FED because the Federal depends on the Federal Reserve for this information, and they're the ones that determine the interest rate as far as that overnight banking, and it's you know that four point three percent in

terms of the banks. If they need money, they borrow from other banks, and that's the overnight rate that they borrow, and then that affects the interest rates as far as credit cards, loans, and then also eventually goes over into the housing market and affects the interest rates over there. So if this organization is just spiraling out of control,

has way too many employees. As a matter of fact, during this whole flat with Lion Jerry Powell and Donald Trump, they said that, well, you know, maybe we do our We are a little top heavy, so we'll reduce our workforce by about ten percent by twenty twenty seven. We're in the private sector. If you're having problems with you're losing money and you need to cut costs, how do you How can you wait two years before you make those adjustments? But the are reserve because who's overseeing them?

And again Ron Paul and then Rand Paul now is calling for the picking up that mantra because Ron Paul retired, but Ran Paul has been calling for the audit of the FED. And yet these people just you know, people in Congress, Senate just say, you know, it's okay, it's the FED. You know, they're independent source, and we don't

want to deal with that. Yet we saw the report what was it a couple months ago where the overruns they were doing the renovations they are now it was supposed to be I forget what the number was, but they're now twenty five to forty percent higher than what those estimates were to revamp and remodel the Federal Reserve building there in Washington. So they're they're not handling that, they can't control that. And yet they're talking about, well, we are blown. We're going to reduce our work staff

by ten percent two years from now. So again, you know, twenty three thousand employees, what do they do? And nobody ever talks about the information and that they gat that out of the Federal Reserve. We get this data, we get this data, we get this data. They never go into detail of that. But yet the spoon feder regurgitators in the mainstream media when a headline comes up, boom, they repeat it like a bunch of parrots. It's just unbelievable.

But the fact that Donald Trump has pulled the curtain back on these agencies and said, Okay, well, you know, they need to be more accurate in terms of the data that they give us. And if we're not getting the accurate data, the people that are in charge of that and Bureau of Labor Statistics or wherever are going to get canned. And we're going to get people in there that can get the accurate information and put the

pressure on the FED. With twenty three thousand employees, what information are they providing and do they have too many employees? So the whole thing is just nuts. Let's see. At the same time, firma is hiring plans have receded sharply. New hirings totaled just two hundred and four thousand, almost two hundred five thousand so far in twenty twenty five, off fifty eight percent from the same period a year ago,

and the lowest level since two thousand and nine. I keep harping on the fact that one of the things hold the main thing that's holding back our economy at this point is interest rates. The fact that interest rates are so high compared to the rest of the developed world. All the Western countries have that overnight rate that they charge the banks charge each other if they borrow money is around two percent. Here in the United States, it's between four and four point two percent to four point

two five percent. So why aren't we down a full two percentage points lower? Because their unemployment rates are similar to ours, their inflation rates are similar to ours, why aren't our rates down the way they should be. The one main factor is lying Jerry Powell talking about, Oh, I'm worried about inflation. Well, you know when they look at the inflation and the inflation hasn't creeped up. They were saying that we were going to see five six

seven percent inflation by the end of the year. What we're saying is around two point nine two point eight and thereabouts. So this inflation that they keep talking about just ain't happening. We'll pick this up and a little bit more coming up. I'm Kevin Bordon, America's truck in Network seven hundred WLW.

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Rush Truck Center. Government shutdown threatens key economic data. And now this was the thing that was referenced in the previous story, and I just kind of skimmed through this because there's now there's it's interesting the way they couched US Again. This was Uh, this came at the end of last week, right before the government shutdown and everything.

And they're talking about Given uncertainty about the impact that Donald Trump's policies are having on the US economy, federal gauges of employment, inflation, and spending are all the more important. Any postponement could hamper key policy decision, such as whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates again when it meets next month. Again, I rely on what I said before. Doesn't the Federal Reserve have this data? Can't they dig some of the data out themselves and come up with

their own information. Can't they rely on some of these other sources, some of these other companies out there, that that's their job to produce this economic data in order for them to be an advisory position to their clients, or if they're doing if they're in the hiring business where they're doing the outplacement, or if they're doing the hiring the interviews for these other companies the recruitment, wouldn't they have a much better feel for what these numbers are.

But of course this is what organization of this. I think it's an associated press. Of course, we're not going to get and balanced coverage from them. But I thought that was an interesting opening paragraph given uncertainty about the impact that President Donald Trump's policies are having on the US economy. All right, now, this is the same phrase that's been used since January, the uncertainty of Trump economic policies.

So wouldn't you think that by what now, the first week of October, that if something was so dire, that maybe it would have happened in January or February, March, how about July, how about September? But we're into October now, and none of it has surfaced that these so called economists have been claiming that is going to happen. So why do they keep beating this drum? I mean, they're starting to look like a bunch of fools. Gregory Daco, chief Economists at E. E. Y Parthenon, You don't want

to be flying blind in a foggy environment. Now, if you're an investment strategist at Chief Economy US at this organization, wouldn't you think that with your clients, with the people that you talk about on a regular basis, that you would have some information about this. But I guess that's asking too much further on, they start talking about the different economic data that is going to be delayed as

a result of this government shutdown. Now, we've already seen that the initial job of claims from last week didn't come out on Thursday. Possible that they're not going to come out this next Thursday or the Thursday after monthly jobs report we're due on October third, Trade balance October the seventh, consumer price index on the fifteenth, retail sales on the sixteenth, and producer price index on October sixteenth.

These may all be delayed. Department of Labor, which oversees BLS, released updated guidelines that confirm the statistical agency would suspend all operations and seize data collection during the lapse during the appropriations. Now, again, these are all based on surveys. I would think that in the twenty first century that we would have better data collection than just sending out a survey and hoping that people send that back in.

Wouldn't you think that they'd have some sort of a better gauge at being able to get this information or make the survey easier for these companies to fill out, so that they'd be more likely to fill it out or delay it again, that's why we have these revisions. You come out with the data that's supposed to be on a date certain than the following month. They adjust that based on more data that they get in, and then beyond that they have more data that comes in.

So getting a streamlined situation where it's better for these companies to release this information and get it to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, I think that would be a pretty good idea. BLS has to delay publication and the jobs Report and CPI when the government was shut down in twenty thirteen. There was a shutdown more recently in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, but prior funding ensured that BLS

would release major data. And again, if this continuing resolution had been put in place, or been allowed to be put in break place by Chuck Schumer, this Schumer shutdown wouldn't be a problem right now. Let's see Stephen Sanley, chief US economists at sand tandor US Capital Markets the Fed's next meeting October the twenty eighth and twenty ninth, and be harder to justify another interest rate cut without

having the latest government data. Also said, there's private data the federal officials can canvas their contacts and at least get a sense of what's going on. But it does get tougher if you don't have the big aggregate data that we tend to depend on. Again, Wired did him on that? And why is this so antiquated and so out of date? There's got to be a better way. Now. What's interesting is they were talking about the government shutdown. And what's interesting you can go back to Ronald Reagan.

During Ronald Reagan's time in office from nineteen eighty to nineteen eighty eight, there was one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight government shutdowns. Interesting that it's during a Republican presidency. George H. W. Bush one shutdown, Bill Clinton two shutdowns. Barack Obama won Donald Trump in twenty eighteen, and then twenty nineteen there were two government shutdowns. Why is it that when Republicans are in office, the Democrats decide that

they're going to shut down the government. Bill Clinton the longest one so far. Well, actually up till twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, the government was shut down for twenty one days. During the first Trump term, that was shut down by for thirty five days. And it appears as though that the I don't know. There's talks and whether or not they're going to make some sort of an agreement and get the government back open, we don't know. But there seems to be still some hesitancy on the part of

Chucky Schumer and the boys to get this done. Seems that they like messing up the economy. They don't care about the American economy. They don't care about you and me. They just care about their power and they feel it slipping away. According to ADP last week, and this was some dice the information, they indicated the firms shed thirty two thousand jobs in September. According to the ADP, payrolls in US companies unexpectedly dropped in September due to, at

least in part two, issues with data analysis. So again

they're having problems with their data analogy. They don't explain why, but with the data analysis that they use, it appears as though they use some of the data from the federal government, but then they use the data that they have on hand because they process payrolls for a bunch of company and so with this data analysis lacking, they put out a report that says, well, here's what we think happened, but we don't know that this is what happened.

Private sector payrolls decreased by thirty two thousand after revised three thousand declined a month earlier. According to ADP, the figure was below all estimates in the Bloomberg Survey of economists. Now Bloomberg can go out and survey economists, which again they're surveying economists, which apparently they don't have their finger on the pulls because their numbers are always wrong, but

they keep reporting them anyway. ADP noted that their benchmark their data based on expansive series from the Bureau of Labor Statistics called the Quarterly Sense of of Employment and Wages. The recalibration resulted in a reduction of forty three thousand jobs in September compared to the benchmark data, indicating that if it was thirty two thousand and they were expecting thirty three thousand, that there was a slight uptick in

that period as opposed to a decline. And so again a lot of these numbers are in flux because the federal government is shut down and they're relying on data, that is, they are collecting and assuming what would have been collected by the federal government. Coming up, we'll talking a little bit more about this and some other mischief. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's truck a Network seven hundred WLW.

the uncertainty of the Trump administration and so on. So you know, apparently it didn't happen, and of course they're still waiting for it. Nila Richardson, chief economist's ADP. Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market that US employers have been cautious with hiring. Really captain obvious the fact that companies are holding back. They say they're holding back because they're not sure of

whether they can expand or not. And if you're expanding, then you are going to hire more employees. You are going to add on to your building or hire new employees, or you're going to add machinery equipment. In the truck industry, you're going to be adding trucks to your fleet, or if you're an owner operator, you're going to buy a new truck or maybe another truck because your business is that strong, or all these things. In the housing market,

people are holding back. They're not jumping into the housing market the way they should. And what is based on all that all this stuff that we're talking about, expansion of businesses, buying equipment, buying trucks, building additions onto businesses, it requires financing. And what is the financing. It's based on interest and if interest rates are too high, these companies are not going to expand they're not going to

expand just for the sake of expanding. Companies are hanging on to their employees more after what they saw during the pandemic when they shut their business or were forced to shut their businesses down, and when they went back to the rehiring effort trying to get the qualified people back in, and yet we saw that anybody that went out to any kind of any kind of a store that you couldn't find a sales clerk. Some of the

restaurants they were shorthanded on wait staff. And one of the restaurants we went to my wife and I right, no, probably about a month after the plandemic and people were able to get out and about and start going out to restaurants. Some of it they mentioned, hey, you know, our kitchens a little slow. We had to hire somebody who's never cooked before, and so they're looking at the recipes and going, okay, I had this, and I had that, and I had that. So the kitchen was really slow.

And they were explaining that upfront, the fact that once they get once you lay off these employees, it's very difficult to hire them back. Either a lot of them stayed on the unemployment because they were making more unemployment than they would on the job, or they took another job somewhere else when people started hiring, and they went there instead of back to their previous employer. So they saw that what happened during the pandemic, and afterwards they said, well,

we're not going to go through that. Again, We're going to hang on to our employees as long as we can. So that's why you're not seeing massive layoffs. That's why you're not seeing any hiring because again people are being forced to stall whatever expansion they're doing because of interest rates. How they talk about here and again this is going back to the ADP report. Payrolls declined in industries such as leisure and hospitality, business services, and financial activities, as

well as goods producing sectors like construction and manufacturing. Education and health services was one of the areas to add a headcount. Well, you would expect that in September based on back to school that people would be going back to work at these schools. Midwest was the only major US region that shed jobs, and the clients were concentrated in businesses were less than five hundred employees. ADP bases its findings on payrolls covering more than twenty six million

US sector employees in their Labor Report. These are workers who changed jobs saw a six point six percent increase in pay, the lowest in a year. Those who stayed on the job saw four point five percent increase. So again, staying on the job or moving or switching jobs. Really isn't some of the advantages that it had been in the past. Looking at another area which is interesting, Use truck sales increase for the third straight month in August.

Use Class eight truck sales increase year over year for the third consecutive month in August, according to ACT Research Now. ACT Research stands for America's commercial transportation research company. They reported a rise of three point five percent from the twenty twenty four period. Months to month, the results were

flat compared to July numbers. The average retail sale decreased by point eight percent in the prior year period and slipped seven point one percent sequentially from the previous month. Average mileage dropped by half a percentage point. That too, was flat for the prior compared to the previous month. ACT Research Vice president Steve Tam said the eleven percent month to month gain was better than expected on a

seasonally adjusted basis. The auction market turned in a respectable performance that was countered to the expected decline, so they expected sales to decline but unexpectedly increase. Auction volumes floated three point four percent higher, and so on. They go through the statistics let me see Act research also found that same dealer used retail sales increased for the first time in five months. Tam pointed out that it's typically the second best sales month of the year, usually running

more than eight percent above average. They go on to talk a little bit about more about even though the summer does not officially end until late September, of course their reporting period in the first couple of months or first couple of weeks of October, you're still gathering that data. So that's not all there together right now. Clearly, August did not disappoint this year, at least from a unit volume perspective. Industry participants should interpret this as a positive sign.

JD Power noted in a report that pricing decreased at the auction and retail channels during August. The report also showed that retail sales volume continues to trend higher when

compared with prior year. Again, if you're looking to add trucks, if you're adding trucks to your fleet, do you go out and do you buy a brand new truck or do you buy a used truck which is a little bit less or a lot less than what a brand new truck would be because you want to get somewhat of a late model truck in order to keep your

fleet going. And of course, if you're not keeping your fleet up to date, you're going to see rising maintenance costs, which means that that truck's going to be off the road a lot more frequently, and the trucks in the shop it ain't producing revenue. So a lot of this is good news. Let's take a quick look at the oil and gas before we have to get out of here. Oil and well, actually, oil prices have jumped up a little bit higher today. West Texas intermediate crude currently is

sixty one dollars and sixty nine cents a barrel. That's up eighty one cents or one point three to three percent. Brent crude currently sixty five dollars and forty six cents. That's up almost a dollar as well, one point four to four percent. Now, just since January, since Donald Trump took office, West Texas intermediate crud is down fifteen dollars and twenty cents a barrel, or twenty percent. Brent crude is down fourteen dollars and forty four cents or eight

eighteen percent. Down just since January, So that's good on that department. Looking at current average nationwide average of gasoline, current national average is three dollars and thirteen cents a gallon compared to and diesel is currently at three dollars and sixty eight cents. Now, when you go back to a year ago, we are not much changed from a

year ago. And with oil prices being down twenty percent and eighteen percent, respectively, I would have expected, I do expect, and I don't understand what gas prices aren't comparably down about ten or fifteen percent below than what they are. Again, if oil prices are down, that goes into the refinery it's being refined. The lower cost going in should equal

to the lower costs coming out. But we keep hearing that all the retooling, that some of these refineries are closed for maintenance, or you've got the summer blend, or you've got this, that or the other excuse, Whereas it

appears to me that something is not pushing these prices down. Again, if you compare these prices back to twenty twenty, when we were energy independent for the first time since nineteen forty nine, gasoline was at two dollars and twenty six cents, so we were thirty eight percent higher now than we were back then. You shave off another fifteen percent from that number up above, and we get closer to those numbers.

So that would be a good thing if that would start transferring what oil prices are to the retail sector. So again a lot going on. Now. What is going on right now is that oil price is increasing a little bit because over the weekend OPEC had their meeting and they decided that they were going to continue their increased output, but it was only going to be one

hundred and thirty seven thousand barrels per day. However, if you compare that back to where they were at the beginning of the year, they have increased their volume by two point five million barrels per day from what they were last year. And you would think that that would present a little bit of a glut in the oil markets, but that has been eaten up by the increased activity

and increased usage. So the volumes of the increase in oil production, but the inventories aren't going up because the economy is strong and people are out driving and using that oil so again and buying up that guess well, folks, that does it for us. Stay tuned for EDI Radio Top of the Hour. I'm Kevin Gordon, America's Trucking Network seven hundred WLW News, Traffic and Weather.