Soft US inflation data sees markets price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Gold rises and the US dollar falls as markets turn from trade talks. Subdued retail demand continues in New Zealand. India’s inflation is weaker than expected in May. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt discusses what’s been driving New Zealand’s economy out of last year’s recession ahead of Q1 GDP data next week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https...
Jun 12, 2025•9 min
President Trump says US-China trade talks result in agreements covering rare earths and magnets, and Chinese students. US inflation surprises to the downside in May, supporting rate cut expectations for later this year. Australian consumers look to spend. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty explains ANZ Research’s call that the Philippines should pursue a fairer, or even under-valued exchange rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www...
Jun 11, 2025•9 min
US and China trade talks continue this morning, with ‘more to do’. US inflation data for May will show if tariffs are pushing up prices. Australian business conditions are their lowest since 2020. Traffic movements in New Zealand show diverging economic activity. In the second part of a deep dive interview into OPEC’s production cut phase-out, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why he will be keeping a close eye on what the oil bloc decides on production in September. Before...
Jun 10, 2025•8 min
The US and China resume trade talks, as Chinese export data shows a growing fall in US shipments. Chinese factory gate prices experience stronger deflation in May. New Zealand’s manufacturing activity shows strength in the March quarter. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses how OPEC has been shifting in its strategy to phase out previous production cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/f...
Jun 09, 2025•9 min
The European Central Bank cuts but signals the cycle is near an end. US markets were buoyed by a trade call between Presidents Trump and Xi - all eyes are now on payrolls data to gauge the Fed’s next move. Australian households remained cautious in April. New Zealand’s construction sector may have found a floor. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou explains how ANZ Research developed a model to provide a more timely estimate of China’s export performance. Before accessing th...
Jun 05, 2025•9 min
Soft US services and job surveys support rate cut expectations for later in the year. Australia’s headline growth falls in Q1, and South Korea’s currency and stock market get a boost from an election ending months of uncertainty. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the economy is in better shape than yesterday’s Q1 GDP indicated. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jun 04, 2025•9 min
Strong US jobs data adds to the case for a Fed hold. Lower inflation in the EU supports an ECB rate cut this week. Australia’s Q1 GDP growth is set to be weaker on falling public demand, and RBA minutes reveal how much a 50 basis point cut was discussed in May. In the second of two deep dive interviews into Australia’s agriculture commodity outlook, ANZ Commercial’s Head of Agri Business Mark Bennett highlights the challenges and opportunities for Australia’s sheep, dairy and cropping farmers. B...
Jun 03, 2025•10 min
Tariff uncertainty weighs on US manufacturing, with export and import activity at multi-year lows in May. Oil jumps over 3% on geopolitical risk; Australia’s housing market bounces back in May, while job-ads fall. Asian economies start showing diverging trade activity. In in the first of two Deep Dive interviews into Australia’s Agri commodity outlook, ANZ Commercial’s Head of Agri Business Mark Bennett looks at how Australia’s cattle farmers have been affected by different weather across the co...
Jun 02, 2025•9 min
Markets start the week on the lookout for certainty as US courts see-saw on tariff legality; Australia’s housing market sends mixed signals, while retail spending was sluggish in April; and India produces surprisingly strong first quarter GDP. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks ahead to a suite of trade data in Asia amid tariff uncertainty, and also Australia’s Q1 growth figures, due on Wednesday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer...
Jun 01, 2025•9 min
Markets are mixed as they digest a US court ruling that the Trump administration’s tariffs were imposed illegally. Australian business indicators were a mixed bag in Q1. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor says a July cut is not a done deal. The Bank of Korea cuts, with more to come. In part two of a Deep Dive interview into Singapore’s new safe-have status, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how the city-state avoids being labelled a currency manipulator by the United States. B...
May 29, 2025•9 min
US stocks track down with all eyes on Nvidia results due today. Treasury yields rise as traders eye more supply. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts as expected, and lowers its rate track - although one dissenter wanted a hold. And disinflation progress has stalled in Australia. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says the RBNZ’s 5-to-1 vote yesterday indicates New Zealand’s rate setting committee may be nearing a turning point. Before accessing this podca...
May 28, 2025•9 min
US markets jump on stronger consumer confidence and intensified US-EU trade talks. Australian consumer confidence drops despite the RBA’s rate cut last week. Australian annual inflation for April may tick up, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to ease policy later today. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh investigates the Singapore dollar’s even safer-haven status as the US dollar wobbles. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https:/...
May 27, 2025•10 min
Donald Trump delays his 50% tariff on Europe, which boosts stocks there. But gold remains up near record highs on all the uncertainty. Singapore’s factory output rebounds, reducing the chances of a technical recession. And the RBNZ is expected to cut the OCR again tomorrow In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes has taken a closer look at the aluminium market and finds supply issues are adding to the tension also building over rising trade barriers. Before ac...
May 26, 2025•10 min
Donald Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Europe and a 25% tariff on Apple iPhones. Japanese bond yields surge to multi-decade highs. Oil production is set to rise. And New Zealand’s retail trade beats expectations in the March quarter. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses Trump’s latest moves and the selloff in long bonds globally, and the US in particular. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/fiv...
May 25, 2025•7 min
US markets bounce after Donald Trump’ s tax bill passed in the House, just. New Zealand’s Government smooths its bond issuance out. Japanese business confidence falls. Singapore warns of a technical recession, and low Malaysian inflation could support a mid-year rate cut. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says the New Zealand Budget should only have a limited impact on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate cut thinking. Before accessing this podcast, please read the...
May 22, 2025•10 min
The selloff of US assets resumes as concerns about ballooning US Government debt pushed the 30-year Treasury yield over 5% to its highest level in 18 years. Indonesia cuts rates as currency worries fade. And New Zealand records a record trade surplus ahead of today’s Budget. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses recent trends in India’s trade flows as authorities there look to secure a trade deal with the US. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ht...
May 21, 2025•10 min
The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts 25 basis points, but considered a 50-point cut amid global uncertainty, sending the Aussie dollar down overnight. US stocks fall amid budget concerns. China cuts key lending rates, and Asian exports surge through April. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why he expects the Reserve Bank of Australia will next cut rates in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/instit...
May 20, 2025•9 min
International investors sell US assets after Moodys cut the US sovereign credit rating. The UK does a trade deal with the EU. The wealth effect from China’s property market slump is still on consumption. The RBA is expected to cut 25 bps today, but be cautious about more. And Thailand’s stronger-than-expected GDP flatters to deceive. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes stock of the latest tariff moves. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disc...
May 19, 2025•10 min
US consumer confidence slumps, but markets are firm, hopeful the Fed can cut, but that may be a while off. Asian markets will watch key economic data from China today, and ANZ Research has lifted its New Zealand inflation forecast a bit. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman takes a closer look at Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating on Friday, due to high and fast-growing US Government debt. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer...
May 18, 2025•8 min
US retail sales are soft and US producer prices fall. The RBA is expected to look through Australia’s jobs market surge in April, and New Zealand house prices appear to have turned a corner. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks into shifting patterns in Chinese Gold demand, and what that might do to the Gold price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
May 15, 2025•10 min
US markets are mixed after Donald Trump’s partial de-escalation of tariffs on China. Investors are looking ahead to US retail sales data tonight. Australian wage growth beats forecasts before jobs data today, while housing lending fell before the election. And New Zealand’s migrant departures hit a new record high. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at the ability for ASEAN economies and India to use fiscal policy to respond to the ...
May 14, 2025•10 min
US stocks and oil bounce on lower US inflation and another cut in tariffs on China, sending the Aussie and Kiwi dollars up around 1.5% overnight. Lower inflation in India sets a path for a June rate cut. And consumer confidence rises again in Australia. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses the US-China trade deal, and what to expect next. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
May 13, 2025•10 min
US stocks, the US dollar and oil prices surged overnight on hopes a US deal with China to both slash their tariffs for 90 days will stick, and revive growth prospects. Gold, safe haven currencies and bond prices fell. Markets will now focus on US inflation data tonight. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Sophia Angala analyses why China’s domestic growth means more for Australia’s exporters than China’s exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https:...
May 12, 2025•9 min
The US reports substantial progress in weekend trade talks with China. A ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. China re-routed a lot of exports to Asia and Europe in April. ANZ Research raises its milk price forecasts in New Zealand to a record high $10/kg. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani explains a divergence that has developed between the economies of South Korea and Taiwan, despite facing the same tariff shocks to their exports to the United States Before ...
May 11, 2025•9 min
Markets rally after the US does a trade deal with the UK that keeps the 10% baseline tariff on most imports. The Bank of England cuts rates, but hawkishly. And exports from Taiwan and Vietnam jumped unexpectedly in April after US importers front-loaded shipments as soon as the 90-day US tariff pause started. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim looks at how the China-plus-one diversification strategy has affected regional Foreign Direct Investment flows in surprising ways. ...
May 08, 2025•10 min
The Fed has held, as expected. China has lowered interest rates to cushion its domestic economy from the Liberation Day tariff shock. Those lower rates have unleashed extra funds going out of China and into Hong Kong, putting upward pressure on its currency peg with the US dolllar. And New Zealand jobs data was soft, despite a better than expected unemployment rate. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains how Australia’s A$4 trillion pension savings...
May 07, 2025•9 min
US stocks fall on a lack of trade deals ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision. The US trade deficit blows out on import stockpiling ahead of Trump’s tariffs. The UK signs a trade deal with India, and China’s consumers spend strongly over a holiday weekend. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains how Australia’s A$4 trillion pension savings system is reducing the nation’s previous reliance on foreign capital. Before accessing this podcast, please read th...
May 06, 2025•9 min
The Taiwan dollar surges, forcing central bank intervention. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority also intervenes to stop the Hong Kong dollar breaking its peg. Oil prices slide on extra production from OPEC. Indonesia is set to cut interest rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at whether a sharp selloff in India’s stock market is justified. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/in...
May 05, 2025•10 min
Oil prices are set to fall again with Saudi Arabia expected to force through a deal to increase output later today. Australia’s election result suggests incumbent Governments are safer than they used to be. ANZ Research trims its Australian GDP forecasts. And Indonesia’s GDP growth is softening. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities strategist Daniel Hynes says metals markets should prepare for strategic reserves building of the type already seen in oil markets. Before accessi...
May 04, 2025•10 min
US stocks jump on tech earnings, but a new US manufacturing survey points to rising chances of a US recession. The Bank of Japan holds dovishly, which drives the yen down. Australia’s exports jump in March pre-tariffs, while Korea’s exports fall in April. In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner looks at the prospects of lower business confidence feeding into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate cut projections. Before accessing this podcast, please read ...
May 01, 2025•9 min
