Gold finally jumps through US$3,000 an ounce. US consumer confidence about jobs and inflation slumps. New Zealand’s GDP data is expected to show growth returned in the December quarter. And the Fed is expected to hold later this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses how all the Trump tariff turmoil is affecting global markets and the US economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/fiv...
Mar 16, 2025•8 min
US stocks slide again after a new Trump tariff threat. US inflation data was below forecasts. Migrant departures from New Zealand hit a record high, and Australian businesses didn’t get the same boost as consumers did from the RBA ’s rate cut. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala analyses the impact on Australia from the Trump Administration’s new metals tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-p...
Mar 13, 2025•10 min
US inflation is below forecasts. Donald Trump ‘un-doubles’ Canada tariffs, but sets global steel and aluminium ones. Japanese bond yields hit their highest since 2008, thanks to safe-haven demand. And New Zealand’s trucks got moving in February. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim looks at how India’s growth rate over the next year may come in below potential, opening room for rate cuts as annual inflation falls, as it did in February to a weaker-than-expected 3.6%. Before...
Mar 12, 2025•10 min
Donald Trump doubles Canadian steel and aluminium tariffs to 50%, slamming markets again. Australian consumer and business confidence fall a bit. Japan’s GDP is revised down, but strong wage growth is expected to keep the Bank of Japan hiking. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains why India’s inflation rate doesn’t look to be a problem for further policy easing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-fi...
Mar 11, 2025•9 min
US stocks and US bond yields are down sharply this morning after Donald Trump accepted the US economy was slowing. Oil prices keep falling on global demand and supply fears. The euro is surging on hopes for bigger European investment spending. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the surprising performance of US shale oil producers and how they might respond to lower prices in a ‘drill, baby, drill’ era. Before accessing this podcast, please r...
Mar 10, 2025•9 min
Trump’s vacillations on tariffs is unsettling US market and economic confidence, although some think a ‘Trump Put’ will limit any fall in stock prices. Markets now expect more than three Fed rate cuts in 2025. China’s deflation deepens in February. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin takes a closer look at Germany’s plan to step off its ‘fiscal brake’. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five...
Mar 09, 2025•9 min
Trump delays tariffs on auto imports for a month and the ECB cuts rates. Australia’s exports to the US jump despite tariff uncertainty. Forecasts for New Zealand’s Q4 GDP may fall, and Malaysia holds rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the RBA’s February meeting minutes this week point to only one more rate cut this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podca...
Mar 06, 2025•8 min
Oil hits a six-month low and the US dollar drops 1% on fears trade wars will lower global growth. Private spending helps Australian GDP grow 0.6% in Q4. China sets a new growth target of 5%, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Governor resigns. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at whether the GDP growth Australia experienced at the end of 2024 can be sustained through 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://w...
Mar 05, 2025•10 min
Global stocks and bond yields fall sharply again after the United States imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, who retaliate with moves of their own. Australia’s Q4 GDP is set for an export boost, while green shoots emerge in New Zealand’s housing market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing outlines what to expect from China’s National People’s Congress this week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/insti...
Mar 04, 2025•10 min
US markets fall on fears about Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are due to kick today unless he changes his mind. Australia’s business indicators in Q4 beat expectations, as did a survey of China manufacturing in February. New Zealand exports jump in Q4. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani crunches the numbers on how much inflation might flow through to US consumers from Trump’s tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/ins...
Mar 03, 2025•10 min
Global markets take the White House clash in their stride. Tariff deadlines are more in focus, boosting the US dollar, in particular vs the Canadian dollar. Australian lending growth softens, and New Zealand consumer confidence remains subdued. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell analyses how New Zealand’s housing market has started 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Mar 02, 2025•9 min
The US dollar jumps after Trump says 25% tariffs will hit Canadian and Mexican imports from next Tuesday. New Zealand business confidence nudges up as interest rates fall, and weaker Australian capital expenditure may lower Q4 GDP forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at how much the RBA ’s rate cut last week might feed through to Australia’s housing market this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutio...
Feb 27, 2025•10 min
The US dollar stabilises with US bond yields after a surprise drop. Australian inflation is thrown around as electricity rebates roll off, while construction work shows hints of weakness. And Thailand cuts rates unexpectedly, with more cuts likely to come. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s International Economist Kishti Sen considers the outlook for Pacific island currencies amid global trade wars. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institution...
Feb 26, 2025•9 min
Sliding US consumer confidence hammers US Treasury bond yields down to their lowest levels since December. Australia’s January CPI today could give clues on more RBA rate cuts. Australian consumer confidence jumps after the RBA’s cut this month. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the prospects of OPEC going through with stated plans to reverse production cuts made back during Covid in 2020 and 2021. Before accessing this podcast, please re...
Feb 25, 2025•10 min
Markets react cautiously to Germany’s new Government. The US economy is softening because of tariff uncertainty. China’s central bank is using off balance sheet tools to intervene in markets, and New Zealand’s retail sector has perked up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Asia, Sanjay Mathur, has taken a closer look at the importance of household consumption in Asia’s economies, especially in the face of tariff headwinds to their exports . Before accessing this podcast,...
Feb 24, 2025•10 min
All eyes this week are on the latest tariffs drama and German election results, but in Australia, fresh inflation data will be in focus after the RBA’ s rate cut. The US dollar stabilises. Japan’s inflation is strong, and New Zealand posts a trade surplus. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at two key issues in geopolitics: whether Trump’s tariffs create inflation, and how the war in Ukraine might be resolved amid elections in Germany. Before acces...
Feb 23, 2025•8 min
Global stocks are down after a Walmart warning. Australia’s jobless rate ticks up, but jobs also surge, so the RBA says it’s hard to see bad news in the data. And China holds its key rates, keeping its powder dry so it can cut when the US trade war hits. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou sorted through more than 10,000 product classifications to find out how the 10% tariffs being placed on China by the US would affect trade. Before accessing this podcast, please rea...
Feb 20, 2025•10 min
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts 50 basis points and signals more to come. Australia’s wage growth is lighter than expected, which is good news for the RBA ahead of January jobs figures today. They are set to show a solid labour market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk highlights how housing markets in Australia’s capital cities struggled ahead of the RBA’s rate cut. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-...
Feb 19, 2025•8 min
The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts hawkishly, warning of uncertainties around the labour market. The question now is whether it will cut again this year. And Australian consumers lost a bit of confidence ahead of the cut. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner analyses the picture the Reserve Bank of New Zealand faces today as it decides how much to cut rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/...
Feb 18, 2025•10 min
European stocks hit record highs and bond yields rise as higher defence spending is priced-in amid Ukraine peace talks. Japan’s economy hits its growth stride, and high dairy prices and a low Kiwi dollar are combining to support New Zealand’s economy. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why the improving inflation outlook has given the Reserve Bank of Australia the room to cut 25 basis points to 4.1% later today, and then once more in Augus...
Feb 17, 2025•10 min
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to finally cut rates this week. However, the Aussie dollar is firmer this morning and may rise more as global markets take some of the Trump tariff premium out of the US dollar. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why ANZ Research has increased its growth forecast for this year to 2.4% from 2.2%. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-f...
Feb 16, 2025•10 min
Donald Trump is set to announce global reciprocal tariffs today, but US stocks rose and US Treasury yields and the dollar fell on hopes delays could reduce the inflation hit. Japan’s rising producer prices support another BoJ hike. And the Philippines’ central bank unexpectedly holds rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains the importance of New Zealand’s closely watched inflation expectations survey, ahead of next week’s live rates decision by the Res...
Feb 13, 2025•10 min
US stocks and rate cut expectations retreat as January inflation comes in hotter than expected - just one rate cut is now priced for this year; And New Zealand trucks got moving last month, but a full recovery in economic activity is yet to take hold. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan reviews which Asian economies are most at risk from US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff proclamations. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.co...
Feb 12, 2025•9 min
Markets are focused on cautious comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about more rate cuts. Australia’s large and growing US trade deficit could spare it from metals tariffs. Australian consumer confidence in the here-and-now is at its lowest since September. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks into the prospects of gold going through the $3,000 an ounce mark. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/ins...
Feb 11, 2025•7 min
US markets react positively to President Trump’s latest steel and aluminium tariff announcement, but uncertainty remains. Gold hit a new record high overnight. The British Pound continues to weaken following the Bank of England’s rate cut last week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes unpacks the implications of Trump’s tariffs on aluminium and steel, if enacted, and who might be the winners and losers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the...
Feb 10, 2025•9 min
US consumers increasingly fear Donald Trump’s tariffs will drive up inflation, which worried US markets on Friday. Trump reverses a plan to put tariffs on parcel imports. The Reserve Bank of India cuts rates. And China’s CPI inflation blipped up in January. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton finds some surprising strength in private sector job creation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/fiv...
Feb 09, 2025•9 min
Markets are mixed amid conflicting signals on Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Bank of England cuts dovishly, driving the pound lower. Australia’s trade surplus normalises in December, and Vietnam’s inflation was surprisingly strong. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen analyses the risks to Fiji’s trade from a tariff-imposing White House. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 06, 2025•9 min
Gold hits a new record high as the US 10 year yield falls to its lowest point this year.; China holds the Yuan strongly amid depreciation pressure; and New Zealand’s job market loosens enough to green-light the RBNZ to cut 50 basis points this month. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains what’s behind the surge in gold prices to record highs and a 5% fall in oil prices since Trump’s inauguration. Before accessing this podcast, please read the d...
Feb 05, 2025•9 min
Mexico and Canada get a one month reprieve from Donald Trump’s 15% across-the-board tariffs and China is in talks for a similar reprieve. China’s response yesterday was also limited, which markets welcomed overnight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Economist Henry Russell says ANZ’s Business Outlook survey indicates New Zealand’s economy turned a corner at the end of 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 04, 2025•10 min
Mexico secures a one-month reprieve from tariffs by agreeing to send troops to the US border. All eyes are now on a call this morning between President Trump and Canadian PM Trudeau; Gold and the US dollar rise amid the see-sawing uncertainty. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh talks about how Trump’s tariffs are likely to drive the yuan and other Asian currencies around, with tomorrow’s fix of the Chinese currency by the People’s Bank of China being a key mo...
Feb 03, 2025•10 min
