Welcome to the Three Martini Lunch.
Grab a stool next to Greg Corumbus of Radio America and Jim Garrity of National Review.
Free martinis coming up.
Hey, really glad you're with us for the Tuesday edition of the Three Martini Lunch. So much to get to Today we're going to dive into and yes, it's a midterm election yere now, so we're going to be looking at some of these races, the race to replace Jerry Nadler in New York's twelfth Congressional district, which is basically
part of Manhattan. And today we'll be looking at the likely candidacy of former GOP lawyer turned Lincoln project fill in your adjective there, George Conway, former husband of Kelly and Conway will also be taking a look at, sadly, the death of a GOP member of Congress and not only a little bit about his record, but what that does to the margins in the House of Representatives, which
are getting tighter and tighter. And we'll be starting with a look at Iran protests there and whether there's real hope of actual meaningful change there. So, Jim again, another big day as we get going here, in twenty twenty six.
You know, I've long since stopped expecting slow news days, but you kind of be curious if they could have one, And apparently we won't have one ever ever again.
Your new year can also get off to a rip roaring start, especially for your business, and that is especially true when it comes to your business communications. The old systems just aren't going to be as efficient, effective and profitable. And so when it comes to twenty twenty six in your business, and when you're in that level up mindset for your business, it's wild how much the basic stuff matters, like how you talk to customers and keep your teams
on the same page. A cleaner, more modern setup can make everything feel smoother, which is why today's episode is sponsored in part by QUO, spelled QUO, the modern alternative to run your business communications.
QUO is easy. It means calls, texts, voicemails, transcripts, and contact details all now can live in one clean view with full context at your fingertips. This means your team communicates faster, stays aligned, and delivers a more personal experience for your customers.
So make this the year where no opportunity and no customers slips away. Try quote for free plus get twenty percent off your first six months when you go to quote dot com slash three mL. That's QUO dot com slash three mL quot No missed calls, no missed customers. All right, Jim, let's look over at Iran now and over the break. You wrote about this in the morning jolt, but we've also seen protests there and those protests are expanding.
The BBC out just today with it updates, saying that protests have broken out in at least seventeen of Iran's thirty one provinces, presenting the largest challenge to the country's clerical establishment. That's the BBC terminology since twenty twenty two. The BBC's analysis of protests and fod's only those for which we have verified video footage. The true number is almost certainly far higher, because there are reports of protests
and at least eleven more provinces. The wave of protests has spread rapidly across the Ran since December twenty eighth, when anger initially broke out in Tehran following a fresh and sharp devaluation of the country's currency against the dollar and other major foreign currencies, and So, Jim, when you wrote about this last week, I think we have inflation
issues in this country, and we do. You point out, and you're actually quoting a guy from the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies that when Komani came into power in nineteen seventy nine, one dollar got you seventy rials. Now the same dollar gets you one million, one hundred and thirty thousand reals, a sixteen thousandfold difference in its price
from nineteen seventy nine. So it's understandable why people are upset, especially when they realize that their government is far more focused on lining their own pockets and killing infidels and actually helping their own people.
We just went through a couple of years ago, twenty twenty two, inflation in the United States year over year reached a point of about nine percent, and that was painful. People hated it. Right. I went and I looked up the very worst we've had since nineteen sixty was in nineteen eighty Jimmy Carter's last year in office, thirteen point five percent. Right, So that's our top level of how
bad it gets. And you know, the irradiance went four to five times that and Unsurprisingly, people who may not automatically be the most inclined towards revolutionary attitudes or most inclined to get angry at the government. Their life savings are disappearing. The value of the money that they hold is growing worthless. I was talking about this, this report by a gentleman from the Foundation for Defense and Democracies, said guest Cinema Jod. I'm hoping I'm pronouncing that correctly.
He'd actually written his report back in November, and it was just clairvoyant. It was just talking about, Hey, the number in the Iranian economy are really really bad. We're used to them being bad. We're used to them being bad because the sanctions, price of oil, things like that. This is much much worse. And he says, this is
really a structural problem. Decades of corruption, decades of sending money to every terrorist group in the Middle East, arms expenditures, not building infrastructure, not building the sorts of things that actually help your public. It has finally caught up to the Iranian most and there are no simple solutions here.
People might be thinking, well, why is this the good Martinia? Well, is really terrible that the Iranian people are suffering in this way, and if you're looking at these protests and you're saying, I feel like I've seen this movie before. We've seen uprising in the past. Really almost like every couple of years. It seems like there's been one Green revolution back in two thousand and nine that Obama did not support. You later said he regretted it arab spring.
We've seen a bunch of times where people get upset and get in the streets. Almost every time, the regime comes out, shoots a bunch of people and suppresses the uprising, suppresses the descent. I don't know if that's going to work this time, or even if it does. Okay, you have just shot a lot of people. You've killed a lot of people through sheer force and brutality. You've knocked
them down. You're still left with the economic problems, meaning that the only thing that could actually improve the average life of the average ranean would require giant structural reforms on the part of the regime that they're not really willing to do. You'd have to become more of a free market economy. You would need to have a lot
more free public expression of descent. It's very hard to change government policy if you can't criticize the government, and you know, they've now hit that brick wall, and these are problems that have accumulated for decades. So the good news is the Iranian regime is going to like however this immediate uprising shakes out, They're going to have these big structural problems for a long long time. Does this mean that they're you know, Iran is no longer a
potential threat to any of its neighbors. No. I mean they still have that military, they still have that terrorist proxies and all of that. But if you looked at this, you would basically say that the Iranian regime is probably less stable than it's ever been before. There was a report in the London Times that there's a British intelligence report that the Ayatola is preparing plans to go to Moscow if this uprising does not go the way he wants. Put as much stock in that as you feel necessary.
He'd be kind of foolish to not have plans like that. I just kind of wonder Greg if he's going to end up as a roommate of Bashirasav, the former dictator of Syria.
Don't forget Edward Snowden this could be a reality show. They're all kind of hunkering down there.
They're going to form a sitcom. Two bedrooms, one bath. I've been using that joke for a while and it always works every time. You have to understand the Baphist party of Syria to get that joke.
But anyway, yes, exactly.
You know, it's a clue that you're not a real popular regime when Israel is bombing you and people are having parties on their rooftops to celebrate it. That's not probably how the Malas expected people to react to Israel attacking Iran last year, but it's what happened into ran in other places. I'm not saying it's universal the reaction, but let's just say that they're not a popular punch there.
And saying aim over there.
So yeah, and basically Israel saying you know, we know where you were. You were here and then you went there, and then you went there. I totally commany. So we could have taken you out, but decided not to, basically at the best of President Trump.
But we will see.
You're right that we've had a ton of protests that have not ended the way we would have liked.
A lot of repression, a lot of death.
They eventually cracked down, but we will see eventually people are just fed up to the point where they won't even care about that, and we'll see if we're at that point. But kudos to the people of Iran trying to get their lives back. All right, Well, let's talk about another important part of your business, and that's keeping
the books straight. You know, it's hard enough to have all the accounts, payable and receivable lineup, but when you've got people out in the field and they're buying supplies and and gassing up a company vehicles and then they've got pockets full of receipts, it can get really really complicated. So let's fix all that with Coast Pay. Cost Pay fixes that by showing you exactly who's buying what, where and why, and finally giving you the control your old fuel card.
Never did you know, Greg, this is this really special offer, particularly for our listeners who work in the Minnesota state government. Fraud protection actually works on Coast. No more shared pions or you know, personal information numbers, no missing receipts, no
guessing employees check in by text. Coast verifies the purchase and use stay in control, and your accounting team is going to thank you because automatic receipt capture and cleaner data means the end of your month goes from a tedious, multi hour project to just a quick review.
And right now, Coast pay is offering three Martini lunch listeners free gas for a day when you get started at costpaid dot com slash threemil. Go to Coastpaid dot com slash three mL to get free gas for a whole day. Terms apply. That's costpaid dot com slash threeml. The Coast Visa commercial credit card is issued by a Celtic bank. All card accounts are subject to credit approval. All right, Jim, onto our bad Martini now and this is very sad, bad Martini. California Congressman Doug Lameltha has
passed away at the age of sixty five. He represented California's first congressional district, first elected there in twenty twelve. A very strong conservative record had north of an eighty percent approval rating from the American Conservative Union, very strong on social conservative issues and pretty much down the line conservative on a lot of different things. Passing away at the age of sixty five, I have not yet seen
a cause of death. Yesterday, of course, was the resignation of Marjorie Taylor Green of Georgia, and so right now the margin in the House is at eighteen to two thirteen in favor of Republicans. But we've also gotten word that Indiana Congressman Jim Baird is in the hospital after a car wreck. So right now there are two hundred and seventeen votes available for Republicans, and the next two vacancies to be filled will be that one down in Texas that's been vacant for almost a year after the
death of Sylvester Turner. That's a deep blue district. It is most expected to be won by a Democrat. And the next one up will be in April and New Jersey, as voters there replaced Mikey Cheryl who was elected governor back in November. Most likely that will be a Democratic hold, and that'll be two eighteen to two fifteen before we
get to Georgia and California. Now California will have a special election since this death occurred before the end of the filing deadline for the next election, so it will be held under the old map. Don't know what this district looks like under the gerrymandered map, but it doesn't
look better for Conservatives, that's for sure. So Jim obviously condolences first and foremost to the family and the colleagues of Congressman LaMalfa, who by all accounts was a good guy and voted the right way on the vast majority of issues. But the math was already complicated on the House side of Capitol Hill, and it's not getting better.
I was going to say, is a sad fact of life that every cycle a couple members of Congress pass away. Sometimes it's because of age, sometimes it's because of unfortunate you know, health issues or other problems. And so this is another one of those sad cases. If you'd said to me which member of the GOP House of Representatives is going to end up in a car accident, I might not have picked the occagenarian kind. I just didn't figure he'd be a draged, a street racer type. But nonetheless,
you know, hoping he makes a quick recovery. But that's these things happen. You end up in a circumstance where somebody is surgery, somebody's recovery. You know, it's just one of those things. The House of Representatives was already tight, tight control you and I have lamented over the years. These things happen if you have a health issue in yourself, health issue for your family, and you have no choice
but to resign your office. Okay, you know, we understand if you resign your office because you've decided it just you just don't like the job anymore, and you don't want to deal with it, and you're really upset that the President has ripped into you, as Marjorie Tyler Green did. We are much less sympathetic because you signed on, you campaigned for this job. You effectively promised to your constituents, I'm going to represent you in Congress for the next
two years, come hell or high water. I don't begrudge Marjorie Taylor Green being upset that the President denounced her furiously and turned on her for what she thought were some very reasonable minor disagreements. I either released of the Epstein files. She thinks he's not he's forgotten America first, et cetera. Look, I'm sure it stinks to have the President of the United States denounce you on truth social and she said she got a million threats and you
know that's really terrible. But you swore an oath to serve in this position. Like, it's not like this suddenly come up. Oh it's a two year term. Oh wait a second, you didn't tell it. You've been in Congress for several years. You know exactly what this is. If you want to say, you know what, I'm not going to run for reelection, do you want to pull a Tim Walls, That's fine, you're entitled to do that. But
to quit halfway through the term, everyone's while. You've had a guy who people who leave because they want to take a private sector job, and I'm sitting they're thinking like, well, I'm sorry, Like did you not do you not look the fine print of serve members of It's right there in the Constitution. This really shouldn't be sprung on you as a surprise. So it's a little infuriating to be in this situation for House Republicans. You know, Marjorie Tayler
Green could have served, chose not to. I've kind of noticed her sense of betrayal, kind of echoes elis staphonic who decided she did not want to run for governor. At least she'd been very clear that she expected to plan to do that after she became became clear she was not going to be the US Ambassador to the United Nations. I just kind of want to say this to all Republicans, but it really goes to all Democrats too, And we'll be talking a bit a bit more about
this in our third Martini. It's a two year term plan on serving that. Don't make any plans don't like at ah, you know, I'm up for this other like, if you've got other irons in the fire, don't run for Congress. You really owe it to your constituents to serve the full terms, unless you've got some other extraordinary circumstance that makes everybody say, oh, okay, why don't you resign. We'll have that opening. Also, you know, again, I'm glad that the California state law puts out why when the
next special election should be held? Usually we're big fans of Greg Abbott, uh the big The delay in that Houston off Houston seat has been almost a year, and it's just that strikes me it's way too long for anybody to be without representation in the House of Representatives. Of course, there was always going to be another Democrat. It certainly seems like this was done to help the Republican majority, and everybody deserves representation in Congress, even it's by If it's by an income poop.
We'll see who actually gets elected there. But are you dying as a family member dying? Then your resignations? Are you about to be indicted? That's the third test that I usually give.
Are you fleeing law enforcement? Are you?
But are you being offered a lucrative position to lead the Americans for America Foundation?
Uh? Do it after the term ends. It's not that hard.
But yeah, so Jim, yeah, left heritage, but look, is that a sweet gig? Absolutely? But again, if you've signed on for a term, I really think you should be finishing that term. So fifty lashes with a wet noodle for Marjorie Chilly Green.
Exactly now sent it's a six year term. But also you applied for that too, so you should fill that term out as best as you can. But in the House two years, absolutely no excuse whatsoever. And so no special election has been set yet in Georgia or obviously California since that news about Congressman Lamoutha just came through.
But anyway, it's going to be two It's two eighteen to two thirteen right now, to eighteen to two fifteen before a chance for Republicans to pick up those seats or at least hold those seats in those two states. It's the beginning of the year. Talked about this yesterday, and that means making sure your years off to a good start and making sure your health is off to
a very good start. But if you've been putting anything off, like a dental cleaning, the annual checkup, if you're not sure who to go to, ZocDoc is where you want to go. ZocDoc is a free app and website that helps you find and book high quality in network doctors so you can find someone that you love. Both Jim and I have used doc doc and have been very happy with the results.
Greg, I have to make something of an anti endorsement today, and it's what it is is that once again I have used ZocDoc to schedule an optometrist appointment this week. I'll be honest, I was not itching. By the way. Eyes are fine. I did have to wash them with bleach after the last Jets game, but otherwise I'm seeing okay. But I'm like, you know, all right, it's been long enough, I need to do this again. But I was kind
of hoping I could put it all for a while. Greg, wouldn't you know it, With ZocDoc, I could find the appointment within like two days I had. At that point, you have no excuse. You can't put it off. You can't say oh, but if you actually wanted to, I could have looked further into the appointment calendar. But that's the thing about zachback. You'll look at it. It's exactly where the appointments are. You press one button, presto change. Oh, you are booked, and I have no excuse to not
go to the optometer. So that's that's the downside of ZocDoc. If you hate going to the doctor, it will take away all of your excuses for putting it off.
That's awesome. Yeah, Jim loves it. I love it.
So stop putting out those doctors appointments and go to ZocDoc dot com slash three mL to find and instantly book a top rated doctor today.
That's zoc d oc.
Dot com slash three mL, zochdoc dot com slash three mL.
Pay it off, Pay it off now.
The Watchdot on Wall Street podcast with Chris Markowski. Every day Chris helps unpack the connection between politics and the economy and how it affects your wallet. If you have thousands of dollars of credit card debt, you cannot start investing until you pay it off. There is no financial advisor that is cheaper than your credit cards interest rate with all that debt, whether it's happening in DC or down on Wall Street, it's affecting you financially.
Be informed.
Check out the Watchdot on Wall Street podcast with Chris Markowski on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
All right, Jim onto our Crazy Martini Now And as we in the wake of Mamdani and the whole Aft and Bane experience, the democratic primaries are going to have some pretty crazy figures involved in them. Some people looking to be just the furthest to the left, some people looking as opportunists to pick up seats, and that may be exactly what's happening in New York's twelfth Congressional district.
You know, New York Manhattan one of the most sophisticated, glamorous parts of the country, so of course for decades it was represented by Jerry Nadler reminds me of when Henry Waxman for decades represented Hollywood, and you're just like, okay, you know, But anyway, Nadler is not running for reelection this year, and as Gym points out in the Morning Joel, Today, there are ten Democrats currently running for a heavily blue seat.
The Democrats are almost certainly going to hold this seat, but in addition to a couple of assemblymen, and that shouldn't be overlooked because we know how much damage an assemblymen can do, for example, in a mayoral race. But two other names that are there already are Jack Schlosberg, the son of Caroline Kennedy Shlasberg, which makes him, of course the grandson of JFK. And then he hasn't made it official yet, but George Conway one time a Republican lawyer
married to White House Counselor Kelly Ann Conway. And during Trump's first term, it was this weird, bizarre soap opera that played out with Conway constantly criticizing the Trump administration, and the marriage ultimately collapsed in a very public and awkward way. It was very disgusting. But now he's trying to run for Congress in Manhattan because he used to live there once and he really wants to fight. He
thinks that we need more fighters in Congress. And of course Conway is a really deplored here in the three Martini lunch because he was for many years associated with the Lincoln Project, which is one of the more deplorable political organizations on Earth. And so, Jim, I don't think George Conway is going to win this primary, even if he does get in, but the fact that he thinks he could and should run there is quite something.
Yeah. Look, each congressional you know, district has about seven and sixty thousand people in it. This one is one of the most densely packed congressional districts you're going to find anywhere. It's roughly the middle third of Manhattan Island. Right. You would think that if that there's no shortage of Democrats, and yes, there are other candidates in there, you would think that any one of these candidates who lived in
the district would be a better option. And so I would just point out on Conway like he's running he up you know, up until last month, I'm sorry, until October, legal address was in Maryland, right. So this is one of those things where this is a guy who's like, look, I don't live here, but I lived here like ten years ago. Therefore I am the right guy to represent you. I think if I lived in midtown Manhattan, I'd be kind of annoyed by that. Who the hell are you?
What do you do? His argument basically, well, you've seen me on TV a lot, yes, but that's not really the job of a congressman. You know why, you know, why would you think you're the person who's you know, best qualified to do this? On the point of the Conways divorce, Look, I think families have the right to go through a painful process like that with as much privacy and as little public scrutiny as possible. It's bad enough as is. They don't need the entire country weighing
in on who's right who's wrong. The problem is George Conway keeps bringing up his wife, his ex wife, and basically being very starky. And here's the thing, this is still the mother of your children, right, Like, do you do need to use this as a talking point in your campaign? Like everybody knows you can't stand Trump. Everybody knows he is vehement critic of the and that she
had worked for Trump. By the way, Greg, you and I are old enough to remember Mariy Madeline and James Carville, who is last night checked are still married, and we're managed to be happily married while being on opposite sides of the political spectrum. Now, maybe in the Trump era
that's harder, more different, or something like that. But it just there's so something kind of ugly and unseemly about it, and I certainly hope he doesn't rely on this to stand out in this very crowded field and the other Again, I just like there are a whole lot of candidates who have lived there for a long time. Why were we bring why? Look? I know there's an argument that sometimes immigrants, illegal lilimerants do jobs Americans won't do. There
are midtown manhattanites willing to do this job. We don't need to import an illegal immigrant of sorts I guess illegal immigrant of sorts to the district. Then, finally, regarding Schlusberg, my old colleague Jack Butler, who's now at the Wall Street Journal, wrote a great deal about Schlaslberg, John F. Kennedy's grandson, and how he had gotten into all kinds of social media problems. He tried to mock Elon Musk and ended up doing a Nazi salute, and a lot
of people said, oh my godness, what's wrong with this guy? Greg. I want to defend it, but I'm just gonna say, this is not the worst thing any Kennedy's ever done with the Nazis. Some long memories, all right, Really, come on.
This great grandfather's got some issues with that, all.
Right out, you know, and so like, Yes, he's basically been a social media clown for a while, but he's a Kennedy, which a lot of Democrats believe he is constitutionally guaranteed some representation in Congress. I think both of these guys would be perfectly happy with a cable newsgig. And I don't understand why they want to take on a job of member of Congress, which has actual work to do, actual responsibilities, rather than just going on TV and opining. And they seem to think the job like
it's a better paid role of going on TV and opining. Oh, by the way, George Conway really believes that the government shutdown should have lasted longer, so anybody who had to fly around Thanksgiving in that district. Keep that in mind. So, yeah, just give me a generic Democrat. Just give me. You know, I'm yearning for the good old days of a good, respectable Democrat like David Dinkins.
Well, uh, we're probably gonna get one worse than Nadler. I didn't think that was possible a few years ago, but we'll find out.
Or Ano, they're compared to Nadler, Greg, they're gonna look like a political lightweight.
That's certainly true. Now I said Conway probably won't win. You know what could help him win is if Trump goes on a Twitter barrage against him and cullivated puts him in the spotlight exactly. The other thing, in terms of Schlosberg, did you not just watch the mayoral race? What makes you think that being kind of a political legacy like Andrew Cuomo, that's the ticket to victory in New York City. I don't think that's gonna be the ticket for him either, But we'll see.
Greg. What percentage of voters in this district have a living memory of John F.
Kennedy.
My guess is that's.
Very well under fifty percent.
I mean, well, lovely, because you think about it like, let's say you had to be five in nineteen sixty three to have a memory of that, which means you had to be born in nineteen fifty eight or earlier. Yeah, so yeah, I mean at this point, Shlosberg is probably better known as the nephew of the HHS secretary.
Yes, yes, who he went after repeatedly on social media as well, so some family dynamics at issue there as well, in addition to the conways. But Jim, we'll have a lot to talk about this midterm season, and we're only in the primary phase and just getting into the races right now. So in any event, have a great Tuesday. See tomorrow.
Good luck New York Tomorrow Day.
Jim Garretty, National Review. I'm Greg Corumbus of Radio America. Thanks so much for being with us today. Please subscribe to the Three Martini Lunch Podcast if you don't already, tell your friends about us as well. Thanks also for your five star ratings and your kind reviews, and please keep those coming. Get us on your home devices. All you have to say is play Three Martini Lunch Podcast, follow us both on X He's at Jim Garretty, I'm at Greg Corumbus, and follow the Three Martini Lunch the
number three Martini Lunch on Facebook and Instagram. Have a great Tuesday. Join us again Wednesday on the Three Martini Lunch