Now on weekends the Sunday Sweet looking at the stories of the week. Yeah, wow, what a week on planet Earthday. Iran and Israel appear to be on the brink of a really large scale conflict, if that isn't already playing out. The Prime Minister set to meet with Donald Trump at the G seven in Canada this week. I imagine that Donald Trump will say, hey, we're happy to help, but any chance you could do your bit in terms of defense and of course the Aucus, the alliance that underpins the
future of our national security, is now under review. What does that mean? So who better to help us understand all of this than the founder and director of Strategic Analysis Australia, Michael shue Bridge, who joins me on the line. Morning Michael, Morning, Luke, very well, thank you so much for your time. Always enjoy our chats and I appreciate your expertise in all of these areas. I guess we start with Israel and run a new wave of attacks.
Have seen the talks about nuclear canceled quite obviously. First off, was Israel justified? Were they right in starting something? Though? Living in the fear of Iran doing something out of control with nuclear they'd be on edge all the time obviously, if they're not on edge about a whole range of other things.
Yeah, well, the Iranian nuclear program is decades old, so Israel has always wanted it to be ended, and the negotiations that the Americans were having when Iran were clearly not going to do that. And this same week that Israel began these attacks, the International Atomic Energy Agency formally declared Aramas in breach of all its reporting obligations and
had enough nuclear material to make nine weapons. So I think the Israeli calculation was there was it's not going to be a better time to try and stop Iran, and that's why they've started. But it's still an incredibly hard problem. Yeah.
Now, the US, as I understand it, providing some assistance to Israel, protecting them from the missiles and the like. And we've seen Israel get some success, certainly around the nuclear plant, and I think today we're being told that they've had a crack at some of their other fossil fuel stores. And I guess this goes on for a matter of days or weeks or months. I guess I'm trying to ask you, Michael, if you put the crystal ball into this. What you end up with is there
a time where Israel can claim victory? Is a regime change in a run, how does it play out? What's the endgame for both countries?
Well, that is pretty hard to see. I would say, you're right, but this is not a matter of a war that's going to be over in a few days. It's going to go on at least for weeks. The prospect of regime change during the middle of a war, I think is very very low in history. When countries are at war, usually people sort of rally around the flag, and I think we'll probably see some of that. Even though the Iranian regime is deeply unpopular, it's different when
you're being attacked. The Americans are trying not to get dragged into this beyond helping defend Israel. But from the Iranian point of view, if you're helping defend Israel, you're part of the problem. So that the prospects of an escalation are there, bringing the Americans in more. And the bit that still doesn't make sense to me is what's the Israeli plan to deal with the buried underground nuclear facilities that Iran has Because places like fourdoh An underground
site and the tarns An underground and Richmond site. You can bomb the above ground bits as much as you like, but you don't damn underground.
So what countries nearby are likely to assist Iran? I guess where I'm headed now is how far will this expand? Is there an obvious I mean, apart from the US trying to help Israel defend itself, who else gets involved?
Nobody? Because since the seventh of October Hamas terror attacks on Israel, Israel has dismantled the proxies, the armed proxies that Iran had built to threaten Israel for decades. So Hamas and Hezbollah were its key weapons, and it had militias operating in Syria two that had Iranian missiles and rockets to specifically to attack Israel. That's all pretty much gone now. So the Iranians are by themselves, and there's no way countries like Saudi Arabia or Qatar or the
United Arab Emirates want to pile in on a run site. Here. The friend that Iran does have turns out to be Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and that's because Putin has been supported by Iran with drones to fight in Ukraine.
I want to get to Orcus, and I guess we start by the obvious. How serious is the review by the US into Orcus. Should we be sitting here at home, knowing how reliant we are on the US saying oh, we've got a serious problem here.
It is a serious review. The fact that it's meant to only take thirty days means it's not a deep one. But the issues are pretty obvious and clear, and you've put your finger on one of them. Luke. It's very hard to say, hey, we're one of your closest allies America, and we're so close on defense that we're spending two percent of GDP on defense while you're spending three and a half percent. But by the way, we would like nuclear submarines out of your our own navy when you
don't have enough of them. I know we're still going to only be spending two point three percent in ten years. That is a pretty hard ask.
Yeah, yeah, that beautifully put so at home because I want to have these plays out amongst Australian voters. If because you could say, couldn't you Michael, that we've I don't want to use the word bludging, but it seems like, you know, we've we've we've ambled forward knowing that if things got really serious, America would come and give us assistance. But as Trump's made clear in his America First policies, if that's the right way to put it, you know,
we'll give you a hand. But you've got to be half faired inking yourself. But does the average Australian voter do you think are they persuaded by that? You know, we should be fair ink and we shouldn't just rely on the US.
Well, I think this has all got bound up in a whole lot of Australians dislike of Donald Trump and a whole lot of the things he's done. And you know, you look at America with the riots going on, the big military parade, protest saying no King, and the kind of aggression towards America's traditional friends and partners, and you can sort of see why a bunch of Australians are saying, yeah, I love it when mister Albanezi talks tough and says he decides things and he's not going to be pushed
around by this guy. But is it really a source of national pride to not do enough for our own security and say to the Americans, no, it's my right to spend two percent on defense and be even more dependent on you. So don't try to push me about this. To me, that doesn't make sense.
No, that's excellent analysis. That's exactly right, because you're right to say that. He got up to say, you know, will decide, almost like John Howard talked when he talked about the boat paper, will decide what we'll spend on defense. In other words, we'll do just a little bit here and you will come. And I mean, if you're an American looking on you be going, huh, that's not tough.
That's absolutely silly. I get so much from your analysis and our conversations, Michael, and I guess I'm stuck on a point that you raised before the break about Australia not doing enough and looking tough and saying that we're not doing enough. And I guess the question is how safe? Is how safe are we? I guess is where I want to get to here? Because people walk around thinking, you know, we're just go and get a coffee, everything's great.
We hear everything that bad happens happens, it seems overseas. I guess many Australians think, you know, best country in the world, were safe? Here? Are we that naive? Is that fair enough?
Yeah? I think we are still the best country in the world. That's absolutely true, and we're lucky we live in a safe part of the world. But even our safe part of the world is more dangerous than I was. So if you read this government and the previous government's own documents, seems like the nation or defense strategy, you'll hear that China is building a massive military, building a large nuclear weapons stockpile, and it's not doing them for fun.
It's already using it's a military aggressively against countries like Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam. And so the kind of you've got to burrow into those documents because you don't hear
this from our political leaders. So the risks are real, and something you're reading them as well is that our geography no longer protects us as it did because of new weapons, and that's long range missiles, but it's also things like drones that can be used very creatively, as we've seen the Ukrainians and the Israelis do now, and China makes all of this stuff and supplies its military with all of it, and it does want to take Taiwan back, and it doesn't look like there's a peaceful option.
No, is that something that might happen?
Well?
Is that a reality? Is that something we cannot dismiss? And is that far away from happening? I mean, you hear from time to time the suggestion that it's imminent. When will if it's inevitable, China try to retake back Taiwan, We'll take back Taiwan.
Well, this is interesting. I think the Chinese government, the Communist Party, wants to tell the world it's inevitable. But the reason they have to keep saying that is they know that's not true. So far, they've been deterred from doing it, and they've been deterred by American and allied military power and doubts that Jin King has about his own military. And both those things are still powerful. But the problem is America and its allies look a bit
chaotic now and distracted. But the good news is China keeps purging senior people that it's three, which doesn't give them the Colgate ring of confidence. You know, I think it's all about It's a bit like what we're saying about mett Yahu and Iran. Will there be a better time? Is? I think the question in she's mind.
Yeah, okay, fascinating. You talked about drones. Actually had a drone manufacturer, the boss of a company from Victoria, I think, on a few weeks ago, and they're doing great stuff. And you hear about, as you mentioned, drones in Ukraine
and elsewhere. And I end up saying this to myself, why does it seem like we're spending all that we have on submarines on the never never when we could, like other countries around the world, arm ourselves with drones, drones that fly and drones in the water and seemingly be on the pace. Well what am I missing there?
Well, I think what you're missing is our government and our defense is complete. This interest in equipping our military with these things. They spend all their time talking about why the time's not right. You know, anything I believe now might be obsolete. Look, you know, it's not proven how they'll be used best. We've got to develop concepts. But the actual problem is it messes with their plan, the defense plan that the government has endorsed and seems
perfectly happy with. Is what you talked about. It's spending hundreds of billions of dollars on frigates and submarines that do nothing to help our security for decades, and under investing in a whole bunch of stuff that Australian companies make and supply to other militaries. Right now. It is mystifying. It is. It's the only explanation I have is that the current leadership and the government and the Defense Department don't believe their own words about the dangerous world wherein.
Wow, Michael, thank you so much for your time. I appreciate it very much. Indeed, good on you. Good to talk with you, mate. Michael Schubridge, Founder and Director of Strategic Analysis Australia. You see, when you remove the politics from these discussions, and I know that's difficult to do, but when you do, when you talk about defense and you then you know, you get down deep into some
of these issues. Like it is impressive, isn't it that we've got these nuclear powers and marines coming sometime from America our mate, and the UK or other mate, even though they're going to cost you know, maybe half it doesn't nds's you think, oh, well, that's got to be good. But the fact is that in the theaters of war right now around the world, drones and other things are a thing, Which is why I wanted to ask Michael, why aren't they think for us we make the damn
things here? In fact, we make them here, we buy a few of them, but around the world they buy a heap of them. Well, what are we doing that's so smart? And that the point Michael makes, which I think is astonishing, is that they say the world's a dangerous place. And I mean, you look at the headlines today and of course do you think, yeah, well, bloody oath. Well, if it's such a dangerous place, why aren't you arming our army Air Force? Why aren't you doing something now?
Why do we have to wait a decade for a couple of subs. I'm no genius in this space, but I like to think I've got a bit of common sense. And you look at what's in front of you, and I think you're entitled to go huh.