What have we learned after 65 episodes of background, analysis, and day-to-day coverage of the most consequential diplomatic failure in human history? What can we say about those responsible for what happened, and is there any value in searching for guilt? Can we distinguish between guilt or responsibility? Is it a cop out to not look for culprits? Should we search for reasons instead? The July Crisis is a story of human failure on a catastrophic scale, but not all failures were made equally. On...
Jun 30, 2025•41 min
The world was at war, and there was much to do. In London, attention turned to the British Expeditionary Force. The BEF had been ruled out several times before, but that did not have to matter. How many divisions could Britain send, and to where? What of the Dominions, or India, or Egypt? How could one balance imperial possessions with European defence imperatives? At least, the Cabinet was mostly on the same page, and in Parliament, war credits were approved, though not without some vocal disse...
Jun 23, 2025•46 min
With only hours left until the ultimatum expired, the mood in London and Berlin was anxious and excited. Was this truly it? Was the Anglo-German relationship now destined to die in a war over Belgium? Some could not bring themselves to believe it, but in London, the Cabinet was at least agreed. Once the clock struck 11PM, a war which had been impossible to imagine scarcely a few weeks ago was now the only possible policy. By now it was too late to stop the war, but who would declare it? Would Ge...
Jun 16, 2025•36 min
The 1839 Treaty on Belgian neutrality was a mere scrap of paper - that was the phrase which doomed Bethmann Hollweg, and Germany, to moral condemnation. It was the excuse which conquerors of all shapes and sizes had trotted out, when what they really meant was might makes right. Britain and the allies subsequently made great capital out of this faux pas, but this had led to some important questions - foremost among them being, did the German Chancellor actually say it? In this episode, we journe...
Jun 09, 2025•43 min
No matter what Britain did, it was impossible for Germany to evacuate Belgium. War was inevitable. Why, then, did most of Britain not even realise it? The straightforward image we have in our minds of Britain taking a stand against the flagrant violation of Belgium is, in fact, a somewhat airbrushed picture. We may be surprised to learn that the British warnings to Germany failed to mention war, but this was less due to any cold feet, and more from a naïve hope that Germany would declare war on ...
Jun 02, 2025•43 min
Germany's invasion of Belgium had finally begun. After several anxious days of negotiations, warnings, and second guessing, Berlin was firmly set on its path. But what path was that? War had been declared on Russia and France, and now Belgium was in their warpath, but was their any wider strategy than that devised by Moltke? Indeed, diplomacy continued despite the shattered peace, and Berlin chased after two allies in particular - the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria. In each case they would be succe...
May 26, 2025•35 min
In the evening of 3 August, Germany finally declared war on France. The war, Berlin insisted, was caused by hostile French acts, but most knew better. The Italians certainly did. In a series of painful communications between Berlin, Vienna, and Rome, Italian neutrality was crystallised. Austria could not give her the concessions she required, and the Italian people would fly to revolt rather than fight for the hated Habsburgs. But the Austrians had at least begun to reckon with the consequences ...
May 19, 2025•47 min
Finally, Sir Edward Grey was ready to make his case to the House of Commons. Parliament had been starved of news for a week, and the press had done their best to fill in the gaps, but the whole country was desperate for an update. What would the government do if the rumours were true, and Germany had invaded France? Was neutrality on the table? And what of Belgium, who was protected by a treaty? How would Grey rally the House to his side, and did it even matter if he could not, since the Cabinet...
May 12, 2025•53 min
The German ultimatum to Belgium had roused the Brussels government and rallied the nation, but other than this, much was still unclear by the early afternoon of this Bank Holiday Monday. News of Belgium's determination to resist took a surprisingly long time to arrive, but more than that, how long was Germany willing to wait? Had she already begun her invasion of Belgium? Was she already at war with France? Doubts reigned supreme over what would happen next, but one man in particular was in dire...
May 05, 2025•32 min
The German army was firmly in control of German policy, but its next steps were obvious to any contemporary with even the slightest grasp of the situation. The detour into Belgium had been flagged long in advance by the French, and could only be looked at in one way. The solution, though not officially announced in Berlin, was to manufacture a wide range of rumours of French border violations into a kind of justification. This was brought to its logical conclusion, as the Germans tried to claim ...
Apr 28, 2025•33 min
Even as Moltke examined Germany's strategic options, the world was turning against Germany. Berlin pressed its case by pointing out the Russian sins of dishonesty and pre-emption, but was anyone listening? Britain's diplomats in Berlin, St Petersburg, and Vienna had had enough. The news from Luxemburg was a clear sign of things to come, and even if they were sympathetic to the Kaiser's position, the German response was viewed as an overreaction. Declarations of war came from Berlin and Vienna, n...
Apr 21, 2025•55 min
While Germany covered itself in infamy, the German ambassador in London did his best to maintain the fragile Anglo-German relationship. His mission was ultimately doomed, but no one could accuse Prince Max Lichnowsky of failing to try. An avid Anglophile and advocate of closer ties between the two countries, Lichnowsky continued to hope that his masters in Berlin could be persuaded that it was worth making a sacrifice in the war effort, if it meant Britain stayed out of the war. Unfortunately fo...
Apr 14, 2025•46 min
In this second part of my conversation with Thom, we discuss the unlawful way in which the Trump administration behaves at home, including its treatment of citizens who hold views which the President does not like. It is free speech for me, but not for thee, and we look at the historical context for these actions. Can anything stop Trump? Or are the courts as toothless as Congress and the press. Will the American people be forced to fix these things themselves, or is it already too late to retur...
Apr 10, 2025•1 hr 46 min
In this first of two episodes with Thom Daly, we focus on the United States and its position in the world following the Trump administration's many blunders and betrayals in foreign policy, trade policy, and many more things besides. If you believe what Trump has done is antithetical to America and what it is supposed to represent, then you'll be in good company. Please join us for a passionate conversation, and let me know what you think. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more informat...
Apr 10, 2025•1 hr 20 min
The traditional picture of British intervention in the First World War normally comes down to one issue - Belgium. On 4 August, Britain did declare war on Germany. However, before this monumental step took place, Britain had already made its choice - or, rather, the British Cabinet had. The Liberal government was against intervention in a majority, and we have seen countless manifestations of this position over the previous days. Asquith, Grey, and Churchill wanted to intervene, but how could th...
Apr 07, 2025•48 min
The Schleiffen Plan demanded an invasion of the small Grand Duchy of Luxemburg, where German forces would seize key railway installations, facilitating their march into Belgium, and then to France. Of course, nobody told the Luxemburgers, but Berlin was very eager to make it clear that this unannounced invasion was not an invasion at all. Oh no, this was merely a precautionary measure, essential for German security. If the Luxemburgers complied peacefully, all would be well. If not, well, then t...
Mar 31, 2025•41 min
Now that it was clear Germany would have to face the Entente, and likely Britain's imminent intervention, Berlin became much more active in sending diplomatic feelers across Europe. Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire, were all ideal targets. Some were erstwhile allies, others convenient partners, but could they be relied upon now, when the war had become reality? In St Petersburg, the Russian answer to Germany's ultimatum was finally delivered, even if it took several hours for it ...
Mar 24, 2025•43 min
We open with the shattered dreams of Kaiser Wilhelm II, as the British claim a 'misunderstanding' must have occurred to make Berlin believe Britain and France could remain neutral. The rollercoaster of emotions ended with Wilhelm's bitter confirmation to Moltke - he could do what he liked now. What Moltke liked to do and what he had to do were one and the same. It was time to switch back on the Schlieffen Plan, which meant world war was inevitable. And yet, Germany delayed its declaration of war...
Mar 17, 2025•42 min
In the final hours of peace, the German government was led to believe that a miracle had occurred. Incredibly, Britain had affirmed its intention not only to remain neutral, but to guarantee the neutrality of France as well. Where had such a monumental offer come from? Was it legitimate, or the product of a 'misunderstanding' between the German ambassador and the British government? In this episode, we examine this infamous chapter in the crisis historiography. Had the British Foreign Secretary'...
Mar 10, 2025•53 min
After that disgraceful display in the White House, I couldn't stay silent any longer. Three years on from when I first offered my thoughts on the situation, in this very personal and raw episode, I cover the multilayered implications of the current crisis. What is Trump playing at? Is this new turn in American foreign policy going to fix anything, or is it merely emboldening Russia, weakening Ukraine, and making everyone less safe? You can probably predict where I stand, but if you feel like you...
Mar 09, 2025•1 hr 55 min
We're in the endgame now, but somehow, not everyone got the message. There was plenty of waiting to be done. Berlin was waiting on Russia's reply to its ultimatum, and France was also expected to reply, but the generals felt they could not wait. Who knew how far Russia's mobilisation had gone, or how close Germany was to disaster? With this added time pressure, the Kaiser approved general mobilisation, as Europe reacted to the news that war would soon erupt. Yet, at the final moment, a lifeline ...
Mar 03, 2025•40 min
In our final JULY episode of the July Crisis, we return to Britain, where the pressure was building to make a decision. Russian mobilisation was clearly in the air, and if the news was true, German mobilisation would soon follow. Was peace possible even now? Many in Britain insisted it could, and declared that to fight a war in the name of a far off Austro-Serbian conflict was anathema to British interests - and British honour. But the interventionist camp was growing in strength as well. They h...
Feb 24, 2025•45 min
Now that Berlin had accepted that war with Russia was inevitable, it remained to prepare the diplomatic ground. German diplomacy had worked behind the scenes to court Romania and the Ottoman Empire, but the latter effort bore the most significant fruit. The Italians were less dependable, but there remained precious little time to persuade Austria to grant her the required concessions. And yet, the German ambassador kept seeking a way out when among his Russian peers. The Tsar insisted it was imp...
Feb 17, 2025•35 min
As the news of Russian mobilisation and Germany's Kriegsgefahr spread across Europe, urgent telegrams followed. Whether in London, Berlin, or Paris, the picture was becoming clearer, but that did not mean contemporaries were content to allow the march to war. The Tsar had burned his bridges in Berlin, as the disgusted Germans scoffed at his decision to mobilise while requesting their mediation. Could he not understand that it was a provocation to prepare his entire army on their borders? Could B...
Feb 10, 2025•41 min
Russian general mobilisation was underway, and with red imperial posters announcing this grave new step, it could hardly be kept a secret. Yet, somehow, Germany seemed the only power truly in the loop. The question was, why were France and Britain unaware of it? Were they unaware, thanks to their ambassadors in St Petersburg, or had London and Paris chosen to ignore this seismic step, in their rush to blame Berlin? The behaviour of Ambassadors Buchanan and Paleologue certainly deserves some scru...
Feb 03, 2025•40 min
By now, Europe was on a knife edge. In Berlin, more and more rumours were pouring in that Russian general mobilisation was underway. In Vienna, no statesman was willing to make any concessions. Paris and London were both running shockingly blind. In St Petersburg, the morning of 31 July meant the official beginning of general mobilisation - with official red notices plastered across the city to drive it home. When Ambassador Pourtales came upon these, he went immediately to Sazonov, and in their...
Jan 27, 2025•40 min
The 30 July was a turning point for the British Cabinet. When the German Chancellor made his bid for British neutrality, yet refused to guarantee the independence of Belgium or to rule out annexations of French colonies, it set in motion a terrible chain of events. Sir Edward Grey planned to use this faux pas to pile more pressure on the non-interventionists, who seemed to be growing in power every day. His Cabinet was thoroughly divided, but there was one bright spark - Ireland. Thanks to a las...
Jan 20, 2025•1 hr 8 min
The Russian decision to commence general mobilisation against Austria and Germany was made in the afternoon of 30 July, ultimately by the Tsar. It took 24 hours of intense pressure by several leading Russian officials, but after backtracking the previous day, Tsar Nicholas was finally persuaded to go all in. His anxious generals were told that there was no going back - he would not change his mind again, and they could smash their telephone if they wished to guarantee it. But why were they in su...
Jan 13, 2025•50 min
Welcome to our first episode of 2025! We return to a pivotal moment in the crisis, when Germany experienced yet another 180 in policy. A day which began with a frantic German effort to pressure Austria into making concessions soon devolved into the more familiar mission - preparing the realm for war. What had caused this shift in German policy? Why had Bethmann Hollweg and Jagow given up on restraining their ally? Had they resigned themselves to a world war? The answer lay in Russia, and the pre...
Jan 06, 2025•38 min
As Thursday 30 July progressed, one thing seemed clear to the German Chancellor and Foreign Minister - Austria had to be stopped, before the crisis deteriorated any further. Use the code KAISER to get 40% off your first month of a $5 membership on Patreon - 50+ hours of exclusive content including the Age of Bismarck await! Not sure what to get your favourite history friend? Why not give them the gift of a free month of our $5 membership? The solution appeared to lie in drawing some commitments ...
Dec 16, 2024•38 min
