Global equity markets are rallying thanks to the buoyant US economy, which is being driven by stealth stimuli such as record immigration and increased demand for goods and services. But how long is this set to last and what are the risks for investors?
Diversifying portfolios has never been so vital as conflict in the Middle East escalates and spreads. We also consider the performance of the energy sector and gold
Global markets are broadening out now and as equity values rise this wealth is helping to generate economic stimulus in several ways, which we explore here.
Global economic growth has been resilient while inflation has been slowing. We look at the reasons for this and why central banks are under pressure to balance growth and inflation.
In 2024, voters will go to the polls in a record 77 countries. We explore how they will impact economies and stock markets. We also consider how supply chains and shipping routes are affected following Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
Equities are set to outperform bonds, boosted by company sales growth and elevated profits. Bonds, meanwhile, should benefit from interest rate cuts, which could lead to higher bond prices. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom is expected to continue in 2024, but the US stock market should broaden out beyond this sector into unloved areas like energy and small caps.
Despite global economic uncertainty, investors took comfort from an impressive set of company earnings in the third quarter of 2023. Gold has hit a high this month driven by an outbreak of optimism that US interest rates have now peaked. Equities rallied partly thanks to the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom, but appetite for these stocks may not last.
In November’s episode of the Evelyn Partners Investment Podcast, Cherry Reynard and Daniel Casali look at the financial market implications of the conflict and the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the Middle East. The tragic loss of innocent, civilian lives in the region is shocking and our thoughts are first and foremost with all those affected. While the impact on the financial markets has been limited, it may have longer term implications for the oil price and the green energy transition....
Until recently, inflation appeared to be in retreat. Central banks felt sufficiently confident to pause on interest rate hikes. However, a blip in the inflation figures has worried investors, who fear more US rate rises could emerge as a result. The main culprit has been oil prices, which have moved higher in response to supply cuts from OPEC, Expectations are still for a ‘soft landing’ in the US, with any recession likely to be short-lived and shallow. The UK and Eurozone face greater economic ...
The services sector continues to drive growth in the global economy, despite rising interest rates. Spending on services is being driven by savings built up during the Covid era, and pent-up demand for areas such as travel and leisure activities. Along with resilient labour markets, this has continued to push up consumption. In the near-term, there is no sign of this stopping. Unemployment is still low and consumers still have money to spend. Phenomenon such as Swiftonomics – the blockbusting bi...
The S&P 500 has just capped its longest winning streak in over a century, encouraged by better data on inflation, economic growth and corporate earnings. However, data remains volatile and it is possible that markets have moved too far too fast. Valuations now leave little margin for error. July saw the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raise rates once again, though many economists expect this to be the peak. However, central banks are keeping their options open and have made it cle...
With the S&P 500 up 20% since October 2022, another bull market has begun. To date, it has been led by a narrow group of technology companies, but there are signs it may broaden out in the months to come. This may create momentum for global stock markets in the second half of the year, even as a recession looms. Consensus expectations are now for a less severe recession than was expected a year ago. Falling expectations of peak US interest rates have also helped stocks to rally too. The weak...
2023 has seen a surprising revival in the technology sector. This defied the grim predictions of some investors who saw rising interest rates marking an end to the decade-long dominance of technology stocks. The sector’s strength has partly been driven by the excitement around artificial intelligence and its potential for disruption. Artificial intelligence could be a major force over the next decade. Its influence is likely to be felt in more industries, and investors need to align themselves w...
The gold price has been rising, reaching a record high at over $2,000 per ounce in April. This suggests markets see an imminent end to the rate rising cycle in the US and further falls in the Dollar. Buying from foreign central banks is also driving the gold price higher, as countries seek to diversify their asset bases away from Western government bonds. Markets believe inflationary pressures are ebbing. In the US, March’s CPI data showed the level of inflation at a two year low, while lead ind...
Financial markets have been dominated by the fallout from the banking sector turmoil in March. The problems at Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse were more a consequence of poor management than a broader fragility in the global banking system, but it has still unsettled bond and equity investors. It has also prompted a reappraisal of interest rate expectations. Bond markets now expect the Federal Reserve to cut sooner. They believe banks are likely to rein in lending, which will slow economic...
There has been encouraging data on the health of the global economy in recent weeks, with employment, inflation and consumer spending all giving cause for optimism. There is increasing confidence that a hard landing may be avoided, in spite of higher interest rates. However, financial markets have wobbled in recent weeks. In particular, investors continue to worry about further rate rises from the Federal Reserve, even though inflationary pressures appear to be easing. The US central bank has re...
Global economic data is delivering some mixed messages on the outlook for the year ahead. There are encouraging signs on inflation, with energy and food prices gradually falling. However, employment data remains buoyant and a shock jobs number at the start of February gave investors a jolt. The major central banks of the US, UK and Eurozone remain tight-lipped about whether a turn in the interest rate cycle is likely. They all raised rates in their last meeting, but at a slower pace than seen in...
Better news on inflation has sent markets higher in the early weeks of 2023. The reopening of China has seen a strong performance from Asian markets, as the Government puts its zero-Covid strategy behind it. Easing supply chain bottlenecks and falling commodity prices are also improving risk appetite. However, recession remains a plausible outcome for most of the world’s largest economies. Consumers and businesses need to adjust to higher costs and a tougher environment for borrowing. Against th...
There’s been a meaningful rally in equity markets since mid-October, fuelled by hopes that inflationary pressures are moderating. Resilient corporate earnings have also played a role in supporting markets. However, few believe stock markets have turned a corner permanently, with plenty of bad news still to digest in the year ahead. On the other hand, bonds could be back. As yields have risen and markets have priced in higher rates, conventional government bonds have more appeal. Ultimately, they...
Financial markets have remained volatile over the past month. In some cases, notably the UK, there were clear reasons for concern. However, some stability has returned to UK gilts and equities since Rishi Sunak has taken the reins as Prime Minister, rolling back the measures in the mini-budget and introducing greater fiscal discipline. For the rest of the world, it’s just a question of watching the Federal Reserve. As Cherry Reynard and Daniel Casali discuss in this podcast, there are brighter s...
The Chancellor’s mini-budget has unleashed another round of volatility on the markets, with UK bond and currency markets in the eye of the storm. However, after a U-turn on the more controversial elements of the fiscal package and intervention from the Bank of England, a fragile stability has returned. Longer-term problems remain. Inflationary pressures continue, pushing interest rates higher. The squeeze on living costs is intensifying, with mortgage rates and energy bills rising. It is an unse...
Following Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole at the end of August, a Fed “pivot” away from their plans to raise interest rates is unlikely for the rest of 2022. The US economy appears to be overheating – inflation is at multidecade high, and the Fed is looking to match labour demand with available supply, to reduce inflation risk. But there is good news for the US when it comes to inflation: US CPI inflation stayed flat in July and is expected to do the same in August. Yet there i...
Central banks were as good as their word in July, with significant rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. In seeking to tackle persistent and rising inflation, policymakers have been forced to look through worsening economic data. The US is already in a technical recession after two quarters of negative growth and the Bank of England predicts that the UK’s economy will weaken significantly in the fourth quarter. Financial markets have managed to shrug off the recent run of bad ...
In July's episode of The Evelyn Partners Investment Podcast Cherry Reynard chats to Daniel Casali, Chief Investment Strategist, about an unsettled period in UK politics and asks whether, after a choppy six months, investors can look forward to a better second half of the year.
Stock markets were volatile ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. The 75bps rise was higher than expectations but sent a clear signal that the central bank would put tackling inflation ahead of economic growth. However, higher rates make recession more likely. In this month’s podcast, Daniel Casali gives his verdict on whether the world’s largest economies are likely to see an economic downturn, while Ben Seager-Scott looks to make sense of febrile markets. Increasingly, a l...
In May’s episode of the Tilney Investment Podcast Cherry Reynard chats to Ben Seager-Scott, Head of Multi-asset Funds, and Daniel Casali, Chief Investment Strategist about bond yields, inflation and opportunities for investors. For more information on Evelyn Partners, please head to www.evelyn.com
April’s episode of the Tilney Investment Podcast features Cherry Reynard in conversation with Ben Seager-Scott, Head of Multi-asset Funds, and Daniel Casali, Chief Investment Strategist. They discuss market volatility, inflation and the outlook for the global economy and stock markets. For more information on Evelyn Partners, please head to www.evelyn.com
In the March episode of the Tilney Investment Podcast, Chloe Stages, an associate investment director, joins Ben Seager-Scott, Tilney’s Head of Multi-asset Funds. The conversation focuses on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well covering energy prices and the easing of Covid restrictions.
Charlie May, an investment director from Tilney’s London office, joins Ben Seager-Scott, our Head of Multi-asset Funds for our February episode of the Tilney Investment Podcast. They discuss the eventful first month of 2022, the outlook on global equities, interest-rate hikes, and rising tensions in Ukraine.
In January we’re looking back over 2021 and discussing the outlook for 2022. Listen to Sam Coppin, an investment director from Tilney’s London office, putting Ben Seager-Scott, our Head of Multi-asset Funds through his paces. They discuss inflation, quantitative tightening, asset classes in a rising interest-rate environment and more.
