Treasury Tantrums, Arctic Routes, and McKinley's Ghost
#580: "If you want to understand what's happening in the economy, look at bonds," begins today's episode, where we explore how the bond market acts as a crystal ball for economic trends. The bond market has been sending some clear signals lately. Interest rates remain elevated, with 10-year Treasury yields about 1 percent higher than their September 2024 low. After a challenging 2024 where bond returns flattened to just 1.18 percent, both the U.S. and U.K. are seeing historically high yields. We...