February 2026 Random Ramblings

Lyk att svårakut var i din hermergency. Du plattade all håret utan värmesed. What's wrong with, you woman. Your beauty playground. You're about to listen to the yet another value podcast with your host me, Andrew Walker. Uh today's podcast is my monthly random ramblings for February 2012. I'm just gonna hop on and I I ramble for I can't even remember, I think it's about 30 minutes. I don't know. Time was

flying time was going so slow because uh it's a a terrifying, terrifying thought process. They mainly talk about the SAS pocalypse that's going on as AI, you know, I keep saying SAS, but the AI fears are bleeding into all sorts of sectors all over the market. People are wondering how it's reshaping, and I I don't have answers for you. I just have a long, rambling discussion of

Look, AI is improving exponentially, and humans are really, really bad at f uh dealing with exponential improvement. So on the one hand, to me, I always want to be the person running into a panic just like, you know, like a gunslinger running into a firefight and bam, bam, bam, bam, just like spraying money over here. That's my instinct in a panic. That's uh I've done it a few times and I wish I had done it harder and I wish I'd done only that over the past few years.

On the other hand, You see this panic and AI is coming for things that have no tangible assets, you know, a SaaS company, all the all the value is in the software engineers, all the value is in the contracts, all the value is in the those cash flows. Those could get displaced really quickly by AI. So on the other hand, exponential progress coming for things that have no tangible assets.

Whew. So that's scary. I've got no great answers for you. I've just got a 30-minute rambling. And then I'll end it with some thoughts on uh kind of uh you know, being an investor requires a really delicate balance of.

arrogance and humility. How do you keep updating your thoughts? How do you make sure you're not becoming, you know, the person on CNBC who's been saying I'm bearish on the market since 2011. And with some thoughts there, it's my monthly random blitz. We're going to get there in one second. But first, a word from our sponsors. Today's podcast is sponsored by fiscal.ai. Fiscal.ai is a modern data terminal built for investors who want an institutional great platform without the complexity.

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Use my link fiscal.ai slash YAV. That's fiscal.ai slash YAV for two weeks free plus 15% off any of their play, any of their paid plans. That's fiscal dot YAV. All right. Hello and welcome to the Yet Another Value Podcast. I'm your host, Andrew Walker. With me today, it's me. I'm on for my monthly random ramblings for the month of February. I was gonna do this. Uh, next week or the week after, but I I had a podcast guest reschedule, so I had some extra time. I was like, you know what? I've been

thinking about a lot. Let's get on and ramble. So gonna ramble about some stuff today. Before we get there, quick disclaimer, remind everyone, nothing on this podcast is investing advice. I don't think I'm gonna be talking any specific stocks today, just general market thoughts. But please remember, nothing is investing advice. I I'll tell you story.

I got a haircut recently. You know why I got a haircut? Because somebody came onto one of the YouTube comments and said, Dude, your hair is so floofy and out of control. The blur on the background of your

uh zoom screen can't even pick up your hair and I was like, oh dang, if it's that out of control, I'm gonna need a haircut. I'm taking advice on when to get haircuts from randos on YouTube. Should you really be listening to me about anything on investing? No, absolutely not. See the full disclaimer at the end of the podcast. All right. Today uh I I've got a few things I want to start with. The thing uh I am recording this on Thursday, February twelfth.

Let me start with the thing that's like just really taken over the markets so far this year. And that's the Uh it's the AI pain uh is spreading throughout the markets, right?

And the place this is most obvious is in software as a service SaaS, which is just like blowing up every day because people are saying, Hey, you know, is everything gonna get ripped out by AI? But it it's spreading to other places. I'm recording this on February twelfth. Office is blowing up today. You you can go look at a bunch of office stocks that are down five, ten percent, which is big moves for office buildings, right? And

Yeah, I think it's because the market is looking saying, Hey, are all these companies gonna fire everyone and all the offices are gonna be empty forever? I don't know. But it seems to me that's the only thing I can think of. And then uh another one is uh L C L trucking. So these are things like Uh R XO, ODFL, all these type of stuff. They're down.

Huge today. RFO is down like 20%. ODFL is down. I'm typing it in. OFL is down five-ish percent. They're down because some, I I believe it's because some like fly by night penny stock. release the paper on using AI for LTL and they're down. So it is spreading wildly really quickly. I mean earlier this week we saw insurance get hit. We saw brokers get hit. It's spreading really quickly throughout. It's not just us, everything else going up.

So I I I wanna talk about that and a lot of the stuff I will say is SAS, but it it relates to everything. In general, I wish I had done nothing my career but run run into panic. You know, I like to say, Uh in in panics, i I I view a panic as somebody shouting fire in a crowded theater and I I want to be running in when everyone's running out. Like that's my instinct in these things.

And the last two panics I can think of were banks and busted biotechs. Busted biotechs in 2025, early 2025, banks in early 2023 after the SIVB and First Republic crash. And, you know, to be honest, I wish I had done nothing but a focus on those opportunities over the past couple of years because they they did incredibly right. And you don't want to say NF2, every panic's different, everything's different. Um So anyway, uh that those are the the last panics that they work out worked out great.

I'm worried here, right? Like it there's no doubt to me that there is a panic in SaaS and a lot of these sectors. And i I again I'm focused specifically on SaaS, but it it's starting to apply to other sectors. Over the past week you'll you will see days where SaaS, every name is down ten percent. And I mean, these are names that have nothing to do with each other. The n the ones I like to compare are like, you know, you'll have Salesforce, which is literally enterprise level CRM.

You'll have that down ten percent or five percent on a day because it's kind of big. Ten percent's a really big move. You'll have that down per and Duolingo, which is consumer. quote unquote learning how to learn a foreign language. And I use quotes because I did Duolingo for two years and I think I learned ten words of Polish despite tuning to every day. Um

So y you'll have the you'll have those two. They'll be down ten percent and you know, it's just the whole sector is just getting hammered. And I've seen panics again, the banking panic, the biotech panic, I've seen other panics.

When you have whole sectors that are down 10% on the day and, you know, it's just completely disparate names getting hammered, that's generally when there's a panic and that's generally when there's dislocation. So I want to run into those panics generally. That that's my gut.

It's hard with SaaS. You know, with banks, I would say, no, there were worries about bank runs and everything getting zeroed, but with banks, like you have a bunch of tangible equity. You've got a business model that has been around for

You know, it's the second oldest business in the world for a reason. It's been around for five thousand years. It's hard to say, hey, we're not gonna have banks going forward, even if you were a crypto maximalist saying, hey, every bank going forward is going to be, you know, run on the internet or whatever, like These were banks that had a billion dollars of tangible equity and were selling at 600 million, 700 million, selling way below book.

So if you were confident, you know, you could go in and you could do the mark to market adjustment and say, hey, you know, Silicon Valley blew up because they weren't marking their bonds properly. If you went into these banks and said, hey, these bonds and these loans are marked properly and I'm still buying for a big discount and the run on the bank uh the run on the bank risk is gone. I mean, there were great values, right?

with biotechs. I mean, you uh part of the reason biotech sold off last year is because people were worried about the FDA. And I think those concerns are can be proven out a little bit by some of the stuff we're seeing at the FDA with pulling the ball on specifically gene therapies and stuff, but uh neither here nor there. You know, with biotechs in March and April,

These things were trading so far below cash value that you no longer had to worry. I mean, they they weren't even science projects anymore, right? If if the science was dead the next day. you had capital allocation issues. So anyway, what I'm saying is with both of those, they had they had hard assets, right?

With software, the the issue is there's not really hard asset there, right? Like these were built on, these were trading at multiples of two years ago, multiples of revenue. Now it's multiples of cash flow, I'd say. But still like The earnings there can evaporate quickly. And when they do, there's kind of nothing left over for the equity holders. And You know, I I think that's scary because even if you look at if you come to this and you say

Hey, you know, you can't replace, and I just keep using Salesforce over and over again because they're just such a weird run. You can't replace Salesforce with a vibe-coded CRM. That is true, right? That is true today. That is true now. But these the AI stuff is increasing, is improving at an exponential rate. You know, and I I would point you to.

Go back two, three years ago when, you know, everybody would show the val I I've got one that I i is in my mind. It's like a picture of Will Smith. It it's a video of Will Smith doing stuff and the version Two years ago, it kind of looked like a horror movie where the character was made of wax or cheese and he was melting and he had like eight fingers and he was stop motion doing everything. It was terrible, right?

And then you would fast forward today and peop people treat this all the time, right? It's the V one versus V four of a bunch of different models. You fast forward today and they make these things and it's indistinguishable from like A level Hollywood movies, these videos are getting made. So that's in three years. You go from just horror figures, nightmarish type stuff to stuff that is kind of indistinguishable from A-level movies. And these are getting spun up instantly, right?

You can say, oh, an AI tool can't replace Salesforce, can't replace w pick your SaaS service right now. Okay, maybe it can't right now, but if these things are improving exponentially, how long till a spun up Salesforce or a spun up whatever SaaS tool you want to is at the same level of the the kind of Enterprise level thing.

It's gonna be really effing fast. And, you know, I I saw some people who specialty insurers or something would sell off on Monday because Anthropic rolled out like a basic insurance product. And I saw some people who instinctively were like, How stupid is the market? The specialty insurers selling off on this. It's not even a competitor. And I think that's exactly wrong, right? If if you roll out

Innovation happens at the lowest level. And if Uh an AI tool rolled out a very basic, hey, we can price life insurance is very standardized across all markets, right? We can price life insurance better than anyone else, right? They rolled out a very standardized model that I think it's right to look at that and say, Hey, if they're doing life insurance perfectly right now, in three years they're gonna be able to do specialized insurance or they're gonna be able to do anything.

So I I've really been, you know, I I I want to go in and buy it, but Uh my concern is just it's very hard for humans to understand exponential like this exponential progress and where it's going. It's scary. Now there's lots of pushbacks there, right? Uh one pushback that I had that I've kept top of my mind. I remember in two thousand twenty one, every now and then I would get uh I 2021, 2022 range, every now and then I'd have generally a college student who would email me.

They would say, Hey, I think Twitter was a very popular one. I think Twitter is a short. Here is a Twitter competitor that I coded on my own inside of a day, right? And that was exactly wrong, right? Like cool, you can code Twitter. It's not hard to recreate Twitter. That the the Twitter website is not what is unique about Twitter. It is the network effects. It is all the people being there. It is all the eyeballs on that.

Those I mean, Twitter has proven it time and time again. Those network effects are extremely difficult to break, right? So Just because if I take this to SaaS, just because you know, anthropic cloud, whatever it is, can code a Salesforce competitor.

does not mean it it it has made a Salesforce competitor, right? There's lots of people involved. There's lots of Salesforce. There's lots of things. And no company is going to switch over whole log to, hey, Claude, Claude made something that visually looks like Salesforce, right? Like that's not a working model.

So uh that's just one caveat to uh the downside risk I'm saying, but I do think if you play it out like I I I think it gets pretty scary. So uh just a few th other things I I want to talk about that, you know.

With banking, I think you could be a generalist and buy into the banking panic and do pretty well three years ago, right? Now, did I have banking s I I'm sure banking specialists could have done a little bit better, but You know, being a generalist, all you had to really do was go look at the balance sheet, read the footnotes, and say, hey, this bank has a good deposit base.

It doesn't have these huge mark to market issues with bonds, loans, whatever it is, trading way below book. And if you did that across the board, you generally made pretty good money in banks in that panic.

Biotech, same thing. If you went and you said, hey, this company's trading for way below cash, they're not burning it on insane science projects. And I don't think any biotech's ever really that aligned, but uh, you know, there's shareholders here are kind of aligned, you can make pretty good money. Uh with sad It's really difficult being a generalist and coming in here, right? Because

Again, all the business models are very disparate and you're definitely going to see different impacts from AI for a lot of these. And I will tell you, like when I talk to sector specialists, sector specialists are talking to CIOs, they're doing extra calls, they're doing panels, they're doing uh surveys all the time. Going in and being a generalist and saying, hey, I'm gonna buy a, I'm gonna buy into this panic when you're competing against sector specialists with that type of check.

It's kind of scary. And I'll I'll just give you one example. You know, I've done some calls with uh I I've done some calls. I'm sure sector specialists are doing a lot more, but I'm hearing in real time, you know, someone I talked to three months ago who's saying, Oh yeah, I'd never use AI for that, starting to say,

Oh, I'm thinking about it or oh, I'm changing some habits around the margin. And when you're picking up on that and you're saying, hey, this SaaS company looks cheap on a trailing basis, you know, let's take the let's put the stock comp back in and they're trading that 10 times free cash flow. It's really scary when you're hearing in two months.

A business that has no tangible assets, people are talk talking about changing how they're using it or how AI is impacting and stuff. So it's really scary. Um, you know, one thing, and I've had multiple people point this out to me, but one thing that you probably want to see is It's always...

The the highest end people are always the slowest to roll out changes in technology, right? They're always gonna be the most cautious. So your largest banks, your JP Morgan stuff, they're generally gonna be pretty slow to adopt things.

Actually banks might not be great because it's the smaller banks who've been the slowest to adapt online banking. But you know, you're the the largest players are g generally gonna be slower than the smallest players. So One thing I've heard a lot of people say is, hey, what you probably want to do is you probably want to go survey like, you know, 50 CIOs of companies that have about 500 employees and ask them, hey.

Are you take are you using Salesforce? Are you using XYZ? Are you using the and you want to see how many of them say yes? And then you probably want to go and survey. uh companies that now have twenty five employees and see how many were using Salesforce or whatever SAS you want uh two years ago when they were a five hundred person employee. And you want to see, hey,

Maybe you're starting to see small companies delaying when they start using the sa the the SaaS that large that these companies would have used two years ago because they can use the AI tools. And if you're starting to see that, it's gonna start bleeding up to the larger peop people. So That's one thing uh I've been thinking about. Oh One other thing, you know, uh there's always two sides to a coin and you're seeing SaaS blow up and I'm seeing a lot of people pounding the table on

Hard assets, right? And the it for for the first time in a while, the first six weeks, you've seen a lot of hard assets, a lot of more cyclical stuff really start to catch a bid. It's been kind of interesting. You know, it it's like a reversal, but I've seen some people say, hey, maybe hard assets are cat catching a bid because they're a flight to safety, right? You've got this.

You you've got this great coal mine in Virginia. I don't know if any coal mine's great, but you've got this great coal mine in Virginia. Uh it's gonna be producing coal whether AI replaces all the jobs or not. And honestly, it might be a coal beneficiary because AI demands so much power. And there's lots of other examples. You know, steel. One that I have written a little bit about and thought about is cement.

You know, we're going to be using cement a hundred years from now, whether AI is here or not. Cement is the basics for roads, buildings. I'm sure we're going to be building roads. We're going to be building buildings, all that. Cement gets used a lot in AI data centers. So I actually think there's tailwinds to that. And it's a a very local market, right? I I don't think AI is gonna solve the fact that it's really SMS really heavy and like it's really difficult to ship long distances.

So I've seen lots of people talk about hard assets as a flight to safety trade just because they're kind of AI proof. And that's probably right to some extent. But I will say be careful what you wish for, because a lot of these hard assets, you know, I I think AI might replace them. It all again, office buildings, people are starting to worry, hey, what if all the office buildings are empty'cause of AI? I think that's overblown. But

Uh I I would point to power. I I said coal, right? People are saying, Hey, oil, you know, oil's gonna be in demand. Uh coal, what whatever it is gonna be in demand. Probably. AI has been great for power so far. AI has really increased power demand. I I do worry a AI, you know, it it is it is so smart. What if AI cracks the code on kind of efficient batteries and storing storing power?

That's really bearish for a coal, for a nat gas, because all of a sudden solar and wind, you combine that with efficient batteries if AI cracks that code. It's really bearish for uh for that type of stuff. So that's just one way. Anyway.

Uh Sass is Sass the SAS pocalyp the AI after effects. It's been on my mind. As you can tell,'cause I'm rambling. I don't know the answer. I I don't know the answer, but I've been thinking about a lot. Oh, I guess I'll jump back in. One other thing I've thought, you know. I if you look at I I do think a lot about media as it pertains to SaaS right now, right? A media in the two thousand tens, the cable bundle was the greatest

thing that it was probably the greatest business that's ever been invented. You know, you you once you got distribution, you had a huge network effect. Uh it was very difficult to take you out. You could get kicked out, but particularly if you had like sports rights and stuff, it was just awesome. Uh and one of the reasons it was so great is because for a lot of For a lot of

uh entertainment, there was huge distribution costs, right? Uh if you wanted to make a TV show or if you wanted to be a new news broadcaster, you needed A, you needed the distribution, you needed to be carried on a lot of channels, and B, you need a studio, you need a lot of equipment, you not you need a lot of people behind the scenes. Those have come way down, right? Uh in 2010, if I told you YouTube and the iPhone were going to destroy the cable channels.

You'd probably look at me like I'm crazy, but they have really destroyed the cable channels, right? Netflix plus Warner Brothers might get over the finish line because they argue YouTube takes more time up than people watching Netflix does. Uh, what has YouTube done? It's brought distribution costs way down and it's made it able for one person to kind of be the star versus before it would have taken a whole team. Where am I going with this? You know, I do wonder if one of the things with AI is.

Previously, if you were a SaaS company, scale was important, right? You needed hundreds of software engineers, hundreds of salespeople to kind of get that. Everyone would develop one product and they would sell it out, right? I wonder if if you kind of played this out in the YouTube analogy. If what happens is uh

You don't need hundreds of people. Claude Code can buy code, kind of a a CRM or something. And what you need is one unique software engineer or three unique software engineers and two great salespeople. And what they do is they kind of go to You know, they they go to big companies and they say, Hey, you choose us and we're basically gonna be with you full time, right? We're gonna be there.

Holding your hand, we're gonna s have AI spin up a CRM and then we're gonna custom code. We're gonna make the last five percent that tweak it around you so that you've got a custom CRM that fits and works exactly for you. So I wonder if like it's a fragmenting, right? Whereas before. In the network era, it was, hey, there's one star who makes all the money and gets all the fame.

And then in the YouTube era, the era, the TikTok era, there are hundreds of stars who are making tons of money. You know, I I'm starting to get more grays on my head. I have no clue who the 20-year-olds are watching on TikTok, but there's all these TikTokers who are making more money than you can believe, right? But They aren't nationally famous like Jennifer Aniston or a Wolf Blitzer or something was from from years back.

So I I I guess what I'm driving to is I wonder if the AI, because it brings the cost of distribution down, it brings the cost of scale down, if you see lots of things where hey I am the best software engineer. Ten years ago, I would have gotten employed by an Oracle or a Salesforce.

Going forward, I get employed and I kind of work my own business. I've got two great clients. I partner with my best friend who is the salesperson who really maintains that relationship. And I'm kind of just coding around the edges and I actually get paid more. Now maybe it's a riskier model. I don't know. But that's what I've been thinking about. Uh let's see. I've really been rambling. Okay, that's SAS. Let me just go to uh You know, one thing, let me switch completely.

Uh one thing I've been thinking about arrogance, humility, and updating your priors. And I'll I'll end by talking about that. Let me start with updating your priors, you know. I've had friends who have been bearish AI for 18 months. Like they they've been saying AI is a bubble, it's all gonna blow up, it's gonna be a disaster.

Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong. I I I I have no idea, right? Maybe it is a bubble. AI is obviously reshaping a lot, but internet in 2000 was reshaping a lot and it was definitely a bubble. Uh I have no idea. But

When would they say they're wrong? When would they update, right? I if you say AI is a bubble for the next fifty years, at some point AI is gonna have some stock market crash. And I guess you could say you're vindicated. But when do you update? When do you say you're wrong? You know, for me, I've been saying for the past

fifteen, eighteen months I found the market a really confusing place because All the AAA stocks power higher, all the power stocks power higher, all the v mag seven stocks power higher, and everything else has been kind of left behind. If I've been saying for the past 18 months, hey, I'm a little confused by the markets and I'm a little bit more on the bearish side than I normally am, and I just keep saying that for 18 months.

When am I failing to update my priors? When when how do I update my priors? When it's kind of a macro view like that.

How do you update? How do you evolve your views and not just become, you know, we've all seen him on CNBC, the guy who says every time he comes on CNBC says, I'm bullish, the stock market's going to go up 20% over the next 12 months.

Or the guy who's been bearish for, you know, since two thousand eleven. He's been bearish and he's been saying the stock market's gonna drop by thirty percent. It's way overvalued every year for the past fifteen years and the market just in general rips higher and higher. So I've been thinking like kind of how do you uh avoid becoming a talk talking macrohead? How do you have beliefs, but how do you shape them uh as kind of

the market evolves, you know, and i this probably applies to companies too. How do you shape your views around companies, you know, so you're not just responding to the stock price, but how do you shape your views around companies. I find that a little easier because I guess you can, you know, as I mentioned, the AI thing, you can do expert calls and all this sort of stuff. But

I've been thinking a lot about it. Uh it related. You know, I I've probably said this before, but just something I've uh I I've been thinking about. Uh it's something I think about a lot and I'll just say it again here now. You know, being an investor is a weird, weird job. Because it requires a level of arrogance and humility that you almost need to balance on a knife edge. I mean, it is very arrogant.

to go and be an investor and say, hey, I'm going to generate alpha. I'm going to go into the stock market, the most competitive game of games, and I'm going to figure out a way to beat the market, right? That is very arrogant. And with arrogance, uh a a lot of times I will see comes bulb rest, right? You're arrogant. you're overconfident You say, I'm smarter than the market. You find an opportunity you like. It's at a hundred.

you plow all in. It goes to eighty, you double plow in. And, you know, maybe it works a time or two. It goes from a hundred to eighty to four hundred. But if you are arrogant and you don't deserve it, or you you double down every time, Eventually it goes 100 to 80 to 40 to zero. And look, I I use double down. Double down is one of the scariest things in finance, right? But you can ignore that. If you are the type of person who does a lot of work and takes a 20% position.

e eventually, you know, you will be wrong and It's tough. Uh now you can, if you're right over time, it'll be great. But a a lot of times I uh the investors I see who they do great for five years and it's because they're taking twenty percent positions and they're they're generally right. And then one year they're they take twenty percent positions and all of them are wrong and they go down 80% and it's all over, right? So there's an arrogance there.

that has to be balanced with humility, right? And the humility is being willing to be open to new information, change your mind, not double down, sell when you're wrong, um, have kind of, you know, the uh there's an aggression and passivity balance there too, right? Like you're arrogant. You say, I can beat the market. When you think you have an edge, you need to be aggressive. You need to swing hard, but you need to have some passivity, right? Where

just because you think something's a little bit edgy, you don't take a swing. You you you kinda really wait for your thing. I don't know. I I don't quite know where I'm going with that, but the the balance between the two always always weighs on me and makes me think and makes me question. And I I've said it before and I'll say it again. Investing is a very mental game. And over time I find it to be more and more mental. And that push and pull of hey

This looks interesting. And do I make the swing? Am I being arrogant to think I have an edge when I'm looking at this, that I can analyze this better? What is my alpha? What is my differentiating? Very, very difficult to think about. All right. Anyway, those were my ramblings for February 2026. Oh, last thing I should mention, you know.

One of the reasons I throw these ramblings out there is because I'm arrogant. I'm a narcissist. I like to listen to myself talk and I like it when people listen to me talk. But a real reason is uh, aside from that arrogance narcissism, I love it when people respond to me. I I love to to chat on them. I I get a lot of value out of it. A lot of the things I talk about on here are things that people reach out to me and I chat about with them. And in general, like

I think the me of 10 years ago thought, hey, Walter Schloss investing in a windowless room and just reading 10Ks was like the ideal. But increasingly I find

you know, yeah, I do a podcast on this, but uh if talking to smart people and just uh talking to them about the markets involving your views, I know it sounds stupid, but it just really helps like spur and make you think, think deeper, think harder, learn new things. So

Well what I'm saying is if you like the ramblings, if you didn't like the ramblings, whatever, shoot me an email. I I'd I'd love to discuss anything that that's on your mind that per that relates to this that would make me smarter, make you smarter, make us both smarter, make us both a little more likely to perform. So

Uh I'm gonna wrap it up here. It is again February 12th, 2026. Got some great podcasts coming up for you in the near future. Looking forward to sharing those with you. Looking forward to rambling again in March and uh have a great month. We'll talk soon. A quick disclaimer, nothing on this podcast should be considered investment advice. Guests or the hosts may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned during this podcast. Please do your own work and consult a financial advisor.