March 28, 2015

Moving to a shorter format, Matt and Alex discuss the buildup of commercial longs in VIX volatility futures and the likely implications for the stock market. Matt and Alex then debate the medium-term direction of the US Dollar. At 4:25, Matt indicated that commercial banks are net long 60K VIX futures – which should indicates their belief that near-term (4-6 weeks) volatility will rise. At 8:10, Matt states that he believes the British Pound is at or very near a very significant bottom. At 9:00, Alex suggests that the US Dollar may be in a structural bull market. Matt disagrees based upon his technical readings as well as COT positioning. At 16:50, Matt and Alex reiterate their bearish view of the stock market.