Senator Cruz and I set down and did a really really fun discussion about Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina moving into Super Tuesday, especially with Ron De Santis dropping out. So what does history have to say about those states picking who's going to actually be the president? And what does it look like now moving forward with Donald Trump against Nikki Haley. Here is our deep dive, especially as you're getting ready to see what happens in New Hampshire. It's verdict with Senator Ted Cruz.
You know, I think it's interesting if you look at the history of the primaries, and I want to do a little bit of a deep dive into these early state primaries the role that they have played. And so let's start with Iowa and the Iowa caucuses have played a very significant role. Let's start on the Democrat side and go back to nineteen seventy six. Nineteen seventy six, the Democrat winner of the Iowa caucus. Do you know who it was?
I don't.
It was the governor of Georgia, an unknown candidate by the name of Jimmy Carter. Really, Iowa caucus is basically propelled Jimmy Carter to become president of the United States, and he went and he worked it. He worked it on the ground their ninety nine counties in Iowa. He went and did grassroots events after grassroots event, and Jimmy Carter's victory in the Iowa caucus was pivotal. Without that,
he doesn't become president. You then look nineteen eighty four, So nineteen eighty Carter's the incumbents of the caucus doesn't matter. Eighty four is the next open presidential race. The winner of it was Walter Mondale forty nine percent. So Mondale, Jimmy Carter's VP wins a big victory in the Iowa caucus, goes on to be the nominee and lose the general election. Nineteen eighty eight, the winner of the Iowa caucus was Dick Geppart.
Now over to caucus.
Dick Gephart got thirty one percent, Paul Simon got twenty seven percent, Michael Decaccus got twenty two percent. Now tight. Now, remember you know Geppart was from Missouri. Missouri is not that far from Iowa, so there was a midwestern Iowa has historically given some additional credence to midwesterners, and dou caucus was from Massachusetts. So it was it was a hard match. And so that was one where the winner
did not win the nomination. Nineteen ninety two. Who won the Democrat Iowa caucus in ninety.
Two, I'm gonna guess was it Bill Clinton?
Now?
Okay, who was it?
In fact, Bill Clinton got three percent?
Really he got crushed.
The winner was Tom Harkin. Yeah, So Iowa didn't really matter because Harkin was a home state hero. And so it basically Iowa was written off in ninety two. Two thousand, what Democrat won? Al Gore he got sixty three percent. He beat Bill Bradley by thirty seven percent. So in two thousand, the Iowa caucas winner won the Democrat nomination. Two thousand and four, John Kerry won. He got thirty eight percent, beat John Edwards with thirty two percent.
Yeah, and that was a tight race.
That was a tight race, and Carrie obviously went on to win the nomination lose the general. Two thousand and eight, the winner Barack Obama. Yep, Barack Obama won with thirty eight percent. He beat John Edwards. Hillary was third in Iowa. Twenty sixteen, Hillary Clinton wins the Iowa caucus, but with fifty percent to Bernie's forty nine and it was a neck and neck photo finished.
So I remember that night. That was an incredible night because no one had a clue what was going to happen, and it was. It was a dog fight in that Democratic primary like we hadn't seen in modern political history.
It was, and it was, it was neck and neck. And then two thousand, remember the Iowa Democrat caucus was a mess, and you had had Pete Boutage Edge and Bernie Sanders both coming out with twenty six percent. All right Republican side. So conventional wisdom today is Iowa is more conservative and more evangelical. There's certainly a very large evangelical population in Iowa. What's interesting is that Iowa has not always played that role. And I'm going to tell
you in a minute. We moved into Hampshire. New Hampshire has not always played the role of the more moderate state, and so over history they've changed some. So nineteen seventy six Republican primary. Who won Iowa nineteen seventy.
Six, I have no idea Gerald Ford, but.
He beat Reagan forty five to forty three.
So it was close.
It was Remember Ford is the incumbent Presidenteah. So this is when Reagan is when airing the incumbent president, and he comes incredibly close to beating him. But Ford, the more moderate choice, narrowly wins Iowa in seventy six. All right, how about nineteen eighty, so Reagan has so Reagan has almost beaten forward four years earlier. So who wins Iowa and eight?
I would assume he would have just owned it there.
You would assume, but you would assume incorrectly. The winner of Iowa nineteen eighty was George Herbert Walker Bush with thirty two percent. Reagan got thirty so it's still tight. It was tight. But again, so that's two elections in a row, seventy six and eighty the more moderate candidate beat the more conservative candidate in Iowa. All right, fast forward eighty four was Reagan unopposed? Eighty eight? The winner
of Iowa Bob Dole. Now again as a Kansas s guy, the midwestern Dole had an advantage, but Iowa was consequential. Do you remember who took second in eighty eight in Iowa?
Would it have been Bush?
Now?
Who was it?
That's why it was notable? Yeah, it was Pat Robertson.
That's right, Yeah, the Christian conservative that that was, That was the evangelical. He went hard in on evangelicals and it worked. So Pat Robertson got twenty five percent. What was the mantra then, I'm trying to remember what was the exact words it was. It was it was, oh, it was something with Christian and it was the way that he'd cast the vote that time, and it was a huge moving block. Do you remember that, the Christian coalition?
Christian coalition, but it was under that and there was something else he said, and it was like and it stuck with people. I'll think of it in a second, but it was big.
So Bush forty one was was third at nineteen percent, Jack Kemp with eleven percent, Pete DuPont was seven percent, so that that was eighty eight all right, Fast forward to ninety six. The winner of Iowa ninety six was Bob dol Oh twenty six percent. So he's a Midwesterner but again quite moderate. But in second place. Do you remember who was second place?
I have no idea.
Pat Buchanan, yeah, twenty three percent, so almost beats Bob dole Uh in Iowa that year, and that that became a big, big deal, all right, two thousand? Who wins Iowa?
Two thousand? Iowa? I'm trying to think of an underdog, because it seems like they're going with the under Who was it?
George W. Bush? Okay, big victory, big victory with evangelicals. Remember his dad had won it narrowly, had beaten Reagan narrowly. And George W. Bush had a lot more credibility with evangelicals than his dad did, and he spent a lot of time I was on that campaign. Winning Iowa was a big deal.
You came in second there that year. Steve Forbes, that's right.
So Bush wins Iowa with forty one percent. Steve Forbes thirty one percent, Alan Keys fourteen percent, Gary Bauer nine percent, John McCain five percent, and John McCain basically wrote Iowa. He said I'm not competing there and orin Hatch one percent. Two thousand and eight, next open seat. The winner of Iowa was my Cuckabee.
Yep.
That's the two thousand and eight's where you started to see the sort of evangelical conservative winning. So Huckabee wins with thirty four percent. Mitt Romney second with twenty five percent, Fred Thompson at thirteen percent, John McCain thirteen percent, Ron Paul ten percent, and there was a whole libertarian thing. Ron Paul's ten percent was significant, Rudy Giuliani with four percent,
and Duncan Hunter with one percent twenty twelve. So the winner in twenty twelve was Rick Santaurum with twenty five percent, but he basically tied with Mitt Romney at twenty five percent. Remember they didn't Claire winner.
Yeah, they could figure it out, and people were frustrated over that because it was like, are you cooking the books here? Why are you not saying someone won well?
And that ended up hurting Santaurum a lot because.
You couldn't claim victory. You want to claim victory.
The benefit of winning Iowa well, one of the benefits typically Iowa whittles down the field. It eliminates candidates. The sort of conventional wisdom is there three passes out of Iowa, the top three come out, and typically the winner gets a bounce. Centaorum did not get a bounce, and obviously Mitt Romney ended up going on to win the nomination twenty sixteen. Yours truly I got twenty eight percent in Iowa won the Iowa caucus. Donald Trump got twenty four percent.
Rubio got twenty three percent. So Rubio almost beat Trump and Iowa. That year, Ben Carson got nine percent, Ran Paul five percent, Jeb Bush three percent, Carly Fiorina two percent, and others seven percent between them. And then you look at this year, Donald Trump fifty one percent, the Santus twenty one percent. So so Trump wins by thirty points. So we were saying, you know, traditionally today people think of New Hampshire more moderate. Well that hasn't always been
the case. So let's take the Democrat side. First of all, Democrat side nineteen seventy six, who wins New Hampshire? Who Jimmy Carter? So Jimmy Carter wins, iwin New Hampshire. He's the nominee's the president. You win both. It's it's game over. Mojudahl was second with twenty three percent. Jimmy Carter had twenty nine percent. Nineteen eighty. No, nineteen eighty is interesting. Jimmy Carter is the incumbent president, but he gets a
very strong primary from Ted Kennedy. Carter wins, but he wins New Hampshire with forty eight percent, and Ted Kennedy gets thirty eight percent. Obviously Kennedy's from mass Choosetts to so you have the neighboring effect. But that was and Jerry Brown got ten percent in that race. Wow, eighty four? Who wins an eighty four? Nineteen eighty four the Democrat primary?
I have no idea.
Gary Hart really, senator from Colorado. He gets thirty nine percent. Walter Mondale, the VP who goes on to be the nominee, gets just twenty nine percent. All right, nineteen eighty eight. The winner is Michael Ducacus, the neighboring governor. He gets thirty thirty six percent. Dick Geppard, who just won Iowa, gets twenty percent. Nineteen ninety two. Okay, who wins New Hampshire.
Ninety Democratic side? I'm trying to remember who all was in that race in ninety two? Who was it?
The winner is Paul Songas.
Okay, I'm glad, I'm actually glad I didn't know that one.
Thirty three percent. Second place is Bill Clinton at twenty five percent. And remember look Bill Clinton and Iowa had gotten three percent.
He got crushed.
Name. Yeah, and then after that the whole Jennifer Flower story came out, so he's getting crushed on that too. And Bill Clinton turned a second place finish in New Hampshire, uh with twenty five percent into saying the comeback kid. Yeah, that second play propelled him to the presidency. Year two thousand what Democrat wins al Gore? But al Gore beats beats Bill Bradley fifty forty six percent, so very close primary. Bill Bradley's from New Jersey, yep, So you've got the
northeastern thing. But it was interesting how neck and neck and and New Hampshire has been pretty good at picking the eight.
Year fatigue of Clinton, right, and that and that actually hurt I think al Gore at the end because if I remember correctly, al Gore's campaign did not utilize Bill Clinton. They they kind of they hid him. Yeah, they did not around the.
Game Peach, you had Monica Lewinsky. I mean they did ran away.
From Bill Clinton. Yeah.
You look at two thousand and four the winner of New Hampshire, John Kerrey with thirty eight percent second place, Howard Dean, the governor of neighboring Vermont, the famous six percent two thousand and eight, who wins New Hampshire in two thousand and eight in.
The Democrats Obama or was it Clinton?
Hillary Clinton thirty nine? Obama gets thirty six percent, John Edwards seventeen, Bill Richardson five, Dennis Kucinich one percent. You go to twenty sixteen, the winner of New Hampshire was Bernie Sanders with sixty percent.
I remember that, Phil the Byrne, Hillary.
Clinton thirty eight percent. And then in twenty twenty the winner of New Hampshire again Bernie Sanders twenty six percent, Pete budaj Edge twenty four, Klobuchar to twenty percent, Elizabeth Warren nine percent, Joe Biden eight percent, Tom Styr four percent, Tulsea Gabbard three percent, and Andrew Yang three percent.
Go back to Joe Biden, just saying, what was that number again for him?
Eight percent?
And he still became President of the United States of America eight percent. Wow.
And we'll get to that moment because there's a lot to say. All right, let's talk about Republicans in New Hampshire. All right, So we talked about nineteen seventy six that Gerald Ford narrowly wins Iowa. But think happens in.
New Hampshire seventy six, gotta be Reagan.
So again, Jerald Ford narrowly wins New Hampshire. Ford gets fifty percent, Reagan gets forty nine.
Real, okay, so he kept the momentum all right.
Nineteen eighty. So nineteen eighty remember who won on the in Iowa. That was George Herbert walker Bush. We get to New Hampshire, did Reagan pull that one off? Reagan wins New Hampshire with fifty percent of the vote, George Herbert walker Bush twenty three percent.
So that's when it flipped and the campaign got in.
And by the way, remember the sort of popular narrative today of New Hampshire's more moderate Will you look at that cycle? It was the more moderate candidate one Iowa and the more conservative candidate won New Hampshire. Now that was also Reagan had a singular breakout moment where he's in the middle of the debate, a debate that ultimately he had paid for, and the moderator. There was a debate.
There was an argument about whether additional candidates who hadn't made the debate stage should be allowed to debate, and Reagan wanted them to, and the moderator tried to say no and said turn off Reagan's microphone. And Reagan leans forward famously and says, mister Breen, I paid for this microphone, and it was seen at the time as a level of presidential leadership. Yeah, and he had, in fact paid for the microphone. Was he was funding the whole debate?
All right? Fast forward to eighty eight. Who wins in eighty eight It's got to be Bush, George Herbert Walker Bush thirty eight percent, Bob Dole twenty eight percent. And so New Hampshire. One of the interesting patterns about New Hampshire, it's a state that has tended to reward runner ups. So remember New Hampshire gave gave it to Reagan over Bush forty one and then eight years later gives it
to Bush forty one over Bob Dole. All Right, you go from there to nineteen ninety six, Who wins New Hampshire Night ninety six?
Ninety six? New Hampshire has gotta be It's got it? Is it Bush?
Nope?
Who is it?
Pat Buchanan? Okay, Buchanan wins New Hampshire twenty seven percent, Bob Dole twenty six percent. Lamar Alexander twenty three percent, Steve Forbes twelve percent, Dick Luger five percent, Allen Keys three percent, Morey Taylor one percent.
Oh ninety six got okay?
Two thousand? Who wins New Hampshire in two thousand?
So two thousand, that's why I was. I thought you said so Bush. I would have said Bush that in two thousand.
Nope, two thousand. I remember I was on this campaign. I remember well. Bush had just won Iowa decisively. John McCain wins New Hampshire forty nine percent to George W. Bush's thirty percent, Steve Forbes thirteen percent, Allen Keys six percent. Now, I gotta say that it was a nineteen point victory.
Kicked our teeth in the best thing that ever happened to the Bush two thousand campaign, because the campaign in Austin at times would get over confident and run entitled and be afraid to run hard, and after Iowa, all of those instincts were in full display. Getting our teeth kicked in in New Hampshire in two thousand made the campaign actually get out in fight, and it made it ultimately. Ironically, losing New Hampshire helped propel Bush forty three on to win.
Two thousand and eight, the winner of New Hampshire.
John McKay John mckainn again again.
Thirty seven percent, Mitt Romney thirty two percent, So he's in second huckyby eleven percent. So Huckeby's won Iowa gets crushed in New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani eight percent, Ron Paul eight percent, Fred Thompson one percent. Twenty twelve, the winner of New Hampshire Mitt Romney. Yeah, he was second four years earlier, and there's a pattern. New Hampshire tends to
like people who were second in the previous cycle. Mitt Romney thirty nine percent, Ron Paul twenty three percent, John Huntsman seventeen, Rick Santorum, who had just won Iowa nine percent, newt Gingrich nine percent, and then twenty sixteen, Donald Trump, with a big victory thirty five percent, So he loses Iowa goes on to win New Hampshire. New Hampshire played a pivotal part in electing Trump. The first time Kasik was second, i was third in New Hampshire, so Trump
won a significant victory. Now we see in modern times, New Hampshire tends not to like the winner of the Iowa Caucuses.
It's almost like they want to say, hold on, we start it here, and we're our own people, we're our own place.
And look, part of the reason is as the Iowa Caucasus has gotten more evangelical, New Hampshire is not a very evangelical state. There's just not a large evangelical population there. It's kind of flinty New Englander. There is a there's a libertarian streak in New Hampshire that's really significant. Ron Paul has done well over the years. My supporters in New Hampshire had a lot of Libertarians who were backing me in New Hampshire. But it's a very different state.
And there's also a populis strain. And so understand it's not there is one the sort of faith and religiosity, the sort of evangelical question. There's secondly the ideological conservative
versus moderate. But there's thirdly the populist And remember New Hampshire's a state that Pat Buchanan won, and Pat Buchanan in many ways and then Ross Perot there is a foundation for Donald Trump in the Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot campaigns of the populist and so New Hampshire combines all of those and the reason Trump in sixteen did so well in New Hampshire as he tapped into that same pat bu Cannon Ross pro populis movement in New Hampshire.
All right, Third state South Carolina, because the three with some frequency, those three states pick the president all right, Democrat side. Nineteen eighty eight, the winner of the Democrat caucus Jesse Jackson fifty five percent, Al Gore seventeen percent, Do Caucus six percent, get Part two percent. So ducaucas goes on to win, but he gets crushed in South Carolina. Now, the primary vote in South Carolina on the Democrat side
is very heavily African American. Yeah, so Jesse Jackson wins a big, big victory, but it doesn't decide the winner that year. Nineteen ninety two, the winner of South Carolina Bill Clinton Bill Clinton with sixty three percent. Paul Songas, who had just won New Hampshire, gets eighteen percent, Tom
Harkins seven percent, and Jerry Brown six percent. So Bill Clinton's second place in New Hampshire the Comeback Kids sets him up for a stunning victory in South Carolina that ends up giving him the nomination and ultimately electing him president. Two thousand, Al Gore with ninety two percent. So Gore in the southern Bill Bradley gets two percent, So it's just a southern southern thing. Two thousand and four. Who won South Carolina? In two thousand and four the Democrat primary?
I have no idea. Who was it?
John Edwards?
Oh, that's yeah, that's right.
He was from North Carolina. He was a neighbor forty six percent, John Carey thirty percent, Al Sharpton ten percent, Wesley Clark seven percent, Howard Dean five percent, Joe Leeberman two percent.
I remember that changed Super Tuesday, and there was a lot of questions about Super Tuesday. Who was going to do well after Edwards did so well?
Yeah. Two thousand and eight, the winner of South Carolina Barack Obama. Z oh for the Democrats. Obama wins Iowa, South Carolina, Hillary wins New Hampshire. Obama ends up winning twenty sixteen. Who wins South Carolina?
Who was it?
Hillary Clinton was seventy three percent? Bernie Sanders just twenty six percent, So Bernie did great, had won New Hampshire, was in a dominant position South Carolina.
Boom, Welcome to reality right.
Twenty twenty the winner of South Carolina?
Who was it?
Joe Biden forty eight percent, Bernie Sanders twenty percent. Interesting, So understand in twenty twenty Bernie had won Iowa and New Hampshire. Yeah, and then South Carolina came in and the African American vote rallied. Bernie has had trouble getting the African American vote historically, And for the Democrats South Carolina, they circled the wagons and elected Joe Biden. South Carolina's got a long history of it, all right, How about nineteen eighty Republican side?
Who was it? Was it? Reagan?
Who wins South Carolina?
Reagan?
Reagan? Okay, generally speaking, if you win two of the first three, you're the guy you're gonna be the nominee. So Reagan that cycle in nineteen eighty lost Iowa, but then won New Hampshire in South Carolina nineteen eighty eight. Who wins South Carolina?
Eighty eight?
Was a Bush Bush forty one with forty nine percent. And by the way, eighty Reagan wins South Carolina fifty five percent, John Connolly thirty percent, George Herbert Walker Bush fifteen percent. So he had a huge letdown that year. Yeah, go back to eighty eight. We're Bush forty one is Reagan's VP? He wins with forty nine percent, Bob Dole twenty one percent, Pat Robertson nineteen percent, Jack Kempell eleven. So again, South Carolina pivotally elects elects forty one as
president or is pivotal in that? All? Right? Ninety six? Who wins the Republican.
Primary ninety six? Who was it?
Bob Dole forty five percent, Pat Buchanan twenty nine percent, Steve Forbes thirteen percent, Lamar Alexander ten percent, Alan Keys two percent. Two thousand? Who wins South Carolina?
Had him been Bush?
George W. Bush fifty three percent, John McGain forty two percent, Alan Keyes five percent. So Bush wins Iowa? This is in two thousand, gets crushed in New Hampshire and comes back and wins South Carolina, goes on to win the nomination get elected president. There is often a connection between Iowa and South Carolina. They are more conservative generally speaking, they're more evangelical generally speaking, although Iowa was a lot
more evangelical than the South Carolina. But there are similarities between the two two thousand and eight, the winner of South Carolina?
Who was it?
John McCain thirty three percent, huw could be thirty percent, So.
So how Coyby was still hanging around.
Remember Huckabee had won Iowa. Yeah, loses New Hampshire and then South Carolina decides it thirty three percent to thirty percent. That was neck and neck. And by the way, third place was Fred Thompson at sixteen percent.
And he really went all in in that state, if I remember correctly, he spent a lot of time there, in a lot of money he did.
Met Romney fifteen percent, Ron Paul four percent, Rudy Giuliani two percent. Twenty twelve, Newt Gingrich at forty percent, he wins, met Romney at twenty eight percent, Sentaorum seventeen percent, Ron Paul thirteen So Santorum ad one. Iowa didn't get the bounce, and Gingrich comes along and steals South Carolina makes a hard push, but then Romney ultimately wins later. So that was that was the year where it didn't play according
to type was twenty twelve, twenty sixteen. Trump wins South Carolina thirty three percent and Rubio and I basically tie. He takes twenty two percent. I take twenty two percent. He beats me by like seventeen hundred votes. It was, it was less than two thousand votes.
I hope you enjoyed our special conversation of really inside politics on what happens in these primary states. Don't forget Sender Cruise, and I will be back with you Wednesday morning with all of our reaction to what happened in the primary in New Hampshire. Plus make sure you hit that subscribe or auto download button wherever you're listening to this podcast and the Senate, and I will see you back here tomorrow morning.