Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's election dissection, your election analysis for across the circus. I hope you all are doing well today wherever you are. So today's program we are discussing the primaries set to occur on Tuesday, May 14th. And unlike our last show where we had it kind of easy, only one state was holding primary elections this week. It's not one, not two, but three. Yes, three states are holding primaries on Tuesday, May 14th.
Those three states are Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia. Now despite three states having primary elections that day, we're only going to talk about two. You see the state of Nebraska, the primaries aren't very competitive this year, but one of those seats will likely be competitive in November. That's the second congressional district seat, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. But today we're going to be talking about the primaries in Maryland and West Virginia.
Now I usually like to go alphabetically, but there's a lot more going on in Maryland than West Virginia, because West Virginia we have two races to talk about and in Maryland we have five. A Senate seat, three congressional districts, and something we haven't done on our show yet, a mayoral election. Yes, so it's a first today on Driscoll's election dissection. So with that, we'll head straight to the mountain state, the state of West Virginia.
Now West Virginia has become a very strong Republican stronghold in the last few years. And despite that, they've had a Democratic senator for a while now, Joe Manchin. However, Joe Manchin is not running for reelection this year. And as a result, when he announced he wasn't running, the insiders immediately switched their projection from lean Democratic to solid Republican. That just goes to show you how much of an influence he had on the state.
Being a conservative Democrat, it's not going to be easy to find a candidate that can do what Joe Manchin has done for the state of West Virginia and its Democratic and possible independent and maybe even moderate Republican voters. So with that, the Senate election is having its Republican primary. There are seven candidates altogether, but there are only two that have the most attention right now. And those are current governor of the state, Jim Justice, and Congressman Alex Mooney.
Now Jim Justice actually announced he was running for the seat before Joe Manchin declined reelection. So in a way, he already had a real edge. And him being a very popular governor, well, that helps too. And it really has helped him in polling. He holds a very comfortable lead over Congressman Mooney at the time. But Mooney's not giving up. He's still raised a bunch of money and he's gearing toward the end, but it looks very comfortable for Governor Justice at the time.
And speaking of Governor Justice, because he's running for Senate, he's not running for governor this year. Yes, just like Indiana last week, West Virginia holds its gubernatorial elections in presidential election years. That primary is a little more crowded. For example, there are four major candidates in this race. And they are former state delegate Moore Capito, state attorney general Patrick Morrissey, auto dealer Chris Miller, and state secretary of state Mac Warner.
So you have a few state politicians as well as Chris Miller, who actually has financed a lot of his own money toward his campaign and has gotten a lot of major TV ads and fundraising endorsements. And you really see a difference here in terms of backing the candidates. For example, Moore Capito has a lot of endorsements from the state elite, including from his own mother, US Senator Shelley Moore Capito.
You have to get mom's endorsement when you're running for office, you know, otherwise, what's the point? But Patrick Morrissey has gotten a lot of endorsements from organizations. And in a way that's helped him, just like Governor Justice, he has a pretty comfortable lead. Overall, he is leading Moore Capito by about 17 points. But still, it's a four way race, so the votes could split here.
But it is a primary to look at because just like the governor race, the winner of these primaries will very likely win in November. So be sure to look out for those. And now, as we head a little down the road to the old line state, the state of Maryland, well, we kind of have the opposite situation. Now if you know anything about the mid Atlantic, you know that compared to West Virginia being a heavily conservative state, Maryland is a very heavily liberal state.
So all the primaries we're talking about today are all Democratic primaries, because in all of these seats, the Democratic nominee will have a good chance of winning in November. Now I say good, but not great chance. And you'll see why when I talk about this first race. So we start with the Senate race. Incumbent Senator Ben Cardin is retiring from the Senate. And with his seat open, a lot of people decided to go out for it.
But despite that, there's only two major candidates in the Senate primary, those being Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Congressman David Trone. And endorsements are kind of split down the line. A lot of national Democratic politicians as well as statewide are endorsing really both candidates here. And David Trone has been leading in most polls, but not by much, including in the most recent poll, he's only leading Alsobrooks by three points.
So this is said to be a very close race. But what's interesting is that in the Republican primary of this race, former governor of the state Larry Hogan is running. And Larry Hogan has been a very popular governor of Maryland, despite being a Republican in a very Democratic state. And as a result, all the analysts say that this race is on likely Democratic, not solid or safe. So the Democratic nominee will have an advantage, but not one that will guarantee them to win.
So they'll still have to do a little bit of campaigning. And that should be an interesting race to watch in November. So with that, we go to the congressional races. We have three of them. We're going to start with district three. Incumbent Congressman John Sarbanes is retiring. And to say that Maryland is a Democratic state is an understatement. In the Democratic primary for this election, there are 22 candidates. You heard that right.
22. Yes. 22 Democrats have filed to run and will be on the ballot. That's why this is a race to look at. Well, despite that, there are four major candidates, those being telecom executive Juan Dominguez, retired police officer Harry Dunn, state Senator Sarah Elfrith, and state delegate Mike Rogers. Now, there isn't a lot of polls for the race here, but Harry Dunn has done a lot of fundraising compared to the other candidates. Well, he's raised about four and a half million dollars.
This is according to official receipts. So in a way that gives him an edge. But with such a big field, it's really hard to really find a front runner with so many candidates. So that should be fun. And now we go to district five. Now district five isn't usually in the news, partly because of its incumbent. The incumbent congressman is Steny Hoyer. He has been in the US House of Representatives since 1981 and at one time was House Democratic leader under Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Well, he's no longer on the leadership team, but he's still in Congress, still working his constituents. Now, in this year's primary, though, Steny Hoyer is facing against three challengers, which is usually more than he usually would. And those challengers are health care executive Quincy Barabee, Prince George's County Environmental Director Andrea Kroons, and administrative assistant Michaela Wilkes.
Now what's interesting is that Steny Hoyer has actually faced off against Michaela Wilkes in 2022 and 2020 in the Democratic primary and soundly defeated her both times. However, now he doesn't have to just worry about Michaela Wilkes. He also has to worry about two more candidates. Now it's not safe to say if Steny Hoyer is in trouble or not, but for a longtime congressman to face more challenges than usual means he may have to do a little more campaigning this year than he usually would.
So there you go. And finally, in the congressional realm of things, we go to district six, the seat of David Trone, whom we just mentioned earlier. Yes, he's running for Senate and therefore is not running for reelection. And this is also a crowded primary, but not like district three. There are 16 candidates in this race. Still a lot, but not as much as 22 candidates.
And there are three major candidates in this race, those being mayor of Hagerstown Takesha Martinez, former U.S. commerce official April MacLean Delaney, and state delegate Joe Vogel. Now all of them seem to have their own way around the district, Vogel being a delegate and MacLean Delaney being the wife of a former congressman from this district, John Delaney. You may remember he ran for president back in 2020.
Now there's only been one poll in this race and it was all the way back in November and it showed that nearly 80% of voters are, well, undecided. But April MacLean Delaney has fundraised a lot more than the other candidates and partly with the name recognition, you know, her husband being a former congressman, that could help her too. But still it seems to be a close race.
And also a big thank you to websites, politicsone.com for listing the occupations of all the candidates as well as ballotpedia.com for showing all the battleground primaries. I highly suggest you look at both websites for election details. I say that now because unfortunately, politicsone.com doesn't really talk about mayoral races that much so I had to do my own research for this.
So this is a battleground election according to Ballotpedia and like I said at the top of the show, it's something we've never done. It's a mayoral race. The Democratic primary for the mayor of Baltimore. Yes, Maryland's biggest city. Now the city of Baltimore has a partisan election. The parties will choose a nominee and all the parties' nominees face off in the November election.
And Baltimore being one of the most democratic cities in the nation, not just in the state, in the nation, the winner of this Democratic primary will very likely win in November. And Baltimore has had a lot going on in the past couple of years. And Baltimore has been in the news lately due to the tragic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. So some say this election could matter more than usual, try to find someone who can unite the city after such a terrible incident.
Well, the current mayor of Baltimore is Brandon Scott. He was elected in 2020 and is running for reelection this year. And he faces numerous challenges, but there are only two major challenges, those being former mayor of the city, Sheila Dixon, and businessman Robert Wallace. Now it should be known that Robert Wallace actually ran in the November 2020 Baltimore election as an independent and lost to Brandon Scott. But this year he's running in the Democratic primary, interestingly enough.
Now Brandon Scott has gotten a lot of good words lately due to his running of the city, as well as his response to the unfortunate events regarding the bridge collapse. And that has helped him in polling because before the bridge collapse, Sheila Dixon was actually leading in the polls, but now Brandon Scott is leading those polls. Still pretty close margin between the two.
And plus, Sheila Dixon having name recognition, being a former mayor, as well as running in the election in 2016 and 2020, voters still know about her and probably still has a bunch of support throughout the city. So that should be one to look at. It's nice for a change of scenery. It's nice to talk about a local election for once. Kind of shows you what goes on in our cities and everything.
I think it's just as important as the elections for governor, senator, and US House, to be honest with you. So those are the primaries to watch on Tuesday, May 14th. And I say to you all out there, if you are a registered voter in the states of Maryland, Nebraska, or West Virginia, I don't care who you vote for, but I do care that you vote. So please do. Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection.
If you'd like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. Thank you all for listening. I'll see you all very soon. This show was brought to you by Algid Productions LLC. Thank you for listening!