Hello everyone, my name is Frank Driscoll and welcome to Driscoll's Election Dissection, your election analysis for across the circus. I hope you all are doing well today, wherever you are. So today we're looking at primaries that are set to take place on Tuesday, June 11th. That day, four US states are holding primary elections. Those states being Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.
And we're going to be talking about a lot of races today, Senate races, Governor races, and House races. So let's not waste any time, let's get right to it. We're specifically talking about races in three states. So to begin, let's pack our bags and head to the Silver State, the state of Nevada. Now this is set to be a very close general election this year, especially with the Democrats wanting to retain the US Senate. So Nevada Republicans are really going balls to the wall in this primary.
Many Republicans have filed for this primary election, but there are three major candidates in this race. Those three candidates being, businessman Sam Brown, former US ambassador Jeff Gunter, and former state assemblyman Jim Marchant.
Now Sam Brown seems to have raised a lot of money, and that can partly be due to his popularity within the Nevada Republican Party, as he garnered a lot of attention two years ago when he ran in the Republican Party for Catherine Cortez Masto's seat, an election that was won by Adam Laxalt, who was defeated by Senator Cortez Masto by a very slim margin.
And also Jim Marchant has been a perennial candidate throughout Nevada elections over the past few years, but Jeff Gunter seems to be a new name in this race, and he has raised a lot of money, most of that his own money, to his campaign. And even in the latest poll from Kaplan Strategies, Gunter is actually leading Brown by one point.
Now bear in mind this poll was sponsored by the Gunter campaign, but two weeks ago there was a poll from the Terrence Group sponsored by the NRSC, as well as Sam Brown, and it showed Sam Brown leading Gunter by 38 points. But as we all know, the poll that really matters is the one on election day. So we have to see who wins this, because this is set to be a very close race in November for the Senate seat.
So whoever wins this race is going to have to campaign really hard, just as well as Jackie Rosen. So from there we head to the Peace Garden state, the state of North Dakota. So North Dakota has a very exciting election year this year, a lot of open seats, and both of the primaries that we're talking about today are Republican primaries. North Dakota is a very Republican state, and whoever wins these Republican primaries will have the clear edge come November.
So let's start with the gubernatorial race. Now the current governor of North Dakota is Governor Doug Burgum. The name might sound familiar, he ran for president earlier this year, and also two years ago an amendment was passed by North Dakota voters to establish term limits for governor, a lifetime limit of two four-year terms, and it only applies to people elected after the amendment.
And since Governor Burgum was elected before the amendment, he could have kept running, however he is choosing to leave the governor's mansion. So an open seat is here. There are two major candidates for this race, those being incumbent congressman Kelly Armstrong and Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller. So two very well-known statewide politicians are running for the race. So as a result this is set to be a hectic race, as are many television ads for their candidates and all that jazz.
We don't seem to have any fundraising numbers for this race, but we do have some polls, and in the most recent poll from WPA intelligence sponsored by the North Dakota News Cooperative, Congressman Armstrong is leading Lieutenant Governor Miller by a pretty hefty margin, 38 points. But as we all know, anything can happen. So with Kelly Armstrong running for governor, that means his congressional seat is up for grabs.
And this is also set to be a very hectic race too, because, well, his seat is the only one in the state. Yes, the entire state of North Dakota selects the congressional representative as it's an at-large district, due to the population being pretty small. And this race is a little bit more chaotic.
There are four major candidates in this race, those being Farmer Alex Balazs, former state representative Rick Becker, state public service commissioner Julie Fietercheck, and attorney and 2018 Miss America, as you heard that right, Cara Mundt. Now the fundraising numbers that we have here from the FEC showing Fietercheck and Becker pretty close together, and as such the two of them are the top two candidates in recent polls. However, unlike the governor race, this one is a little bit close.
In the most recent poll from WPA Intelligence, sponsored by the North Dakota News Cooperative, Fietercheck is leading Becker by seven points. However, a poll from just a couple weeks ago from DFM Research, sponsored by North Dakota United, has Becker leading Fietercheck by three points. So as we head into the home stretch here, those numbers might change a little bit here and again, but it shows it's going to be a pretty close race.
And based on Armstrong's candidacy for governor, this could be a very important race because whoever wins this election could go on to something higher. Current Senator Kevin Kramer was the state's at-large house representative, so it could be a springboard, or they could be just like Governor Bergemann run for president as well. Who knows? We'll have to wait and see. And finally today, we head down to the Palmetto State, the state of South Carolina.
Now here, we're going to be talking about two house races, and both of them involve incumbents, fighting for reelection, and both of them are Republican primaries. The Republicans will have the edge come November in these two seats. So first, appropriately, we'll head to the first congressional district. And the incumbent representative for South Carolina's first congressional district is Representative Nancy Mace. She has held the office since 2020, reelected two years ago.
She has been known by many to be a moderate, straying away from the Republican establishment on some issues, but keeping up with them as well. And even despite that, she does have the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. However, she faces two primary challengers, those being former state cabinet member, Catherine Templeton, and nonprofit executive, Bill Young. Now Representative Mace has a real edge on fundraising here, as well as in polling data.
In the most recent poll from Emerson College, sponsored by The Hill, Mace is leading Templeton by 25 points. However, in the polls that were created for this race, Representative Mace does not have a majority of the vote, and that's important, because in the state of South Carolina, you have to receive a majority of the vote to win the primary. If not, then a runoff election will take place. In this case, it will take place on June 25th. And if that does happen, we will talk about it.
And now we head down to the fourth congressional district. Now the incumbent representative for South Carolina's fourth congressional district is Congressman William Timmons. He was first elected in 2018, served in the state senate before that. And Timmons claims to be a very staunch conservative. However, his opponent believes he is not being conservative enough. His opponent in the election is state representative Adam Morgan.
And he's also been endorsed by fellow South Carolina representative and member of the House Freedom Caucus, Ralph Norman. However, Timmons has received the endorsement from former President Donald Trump, which, according to who you may ask, could be the only endorsement that matters in a Republican primary election. Well, there aren't any polls in this race, but we do have fundraising data, and Congressman Timmons seems to have a clear edge, according to the Federal Elections Commission.
But this could be a good indicator to see if one of the most conservative districts in the state is moving more to the right. And as always, if you're willing to learn more about elections in your area, be sure to check out politicsone.com as well as ballotpedia.com. And if you're willing to look at polls, be sure to check out 538.com. So those are five races that you'll want to look at on primary election night, June 11th.
And as always, I say, if you are a registered voter in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, or South Carolina, I don't care who you vote for, but I do care that you vote. So please do. Thank you for listening to Driscoll's election dissection. If you would like to learn more about the show, go online to algidproductions.com slash across the circus and be sure to listen to us on any podcasting form you like. Thank you all for listening, and I will see you all very soon.
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